Transcript Coastal Exposure and Vulnerability to Large Events

Coastal Vulnerability Model:
Mapping the Coastal Protection Benefits
Provided by the Natural Environment
Greg Guannel, K. Arkema, M. Papenfus, G. Verutes,
J. Bernhardt, A. Guerry, C.-K. Kim, M. Ruckelshaus, and J. Toft
fabiencousteau.org
Wave, Wind
Geomorphology, Relief
Storm Surge
Natural Habitats
NOAA
SaveGuanaCayReef
adclassix.com
jimmymacofphoenix.com
Wave, Wind
Geomorphology, Relief
Storm Surge
Marine InVEST
Natural Habitats
NOAA
SaveGuanaCayReef
Input Data (reflect scenarios)
Marine InVEST Models
Model Outputs
(ecosystem services & values)
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES VALUATION
Carbon
Sequestration
Value of
carbon
sequestered
Wave Energy
Wave
Energy
Value of
captured
wave energy
Coastal
Protection
Avoided
Area
Avoided
damages
Recreation
Tourism
Revenue
Value of
recreation
activity
Fishery
Landed
Biomass
Net present
Carbon
TERRESTRIAL SYSTEMS
BIO-PHYSICAL
Bathymetry & Topography
Species
distribution
Habitat
Risk
Oceanography
Habitat type
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
Population density
Water
Quality
value of
Aquaculture
Visitation Rates
Aquaculture operation costs
Property values
Aesthetic
Quality
Harvested
Biomass
finfish and
shellfish
Mapping Coastal Vulnerability to
Erosion and Flooding
Oi!
• Are
there areas that are more exposed to impacts
of high waves and winds than others?
• Are
there natural factors that can reduce these
impacts?
• Is this area vulnerable to erosion and inundation during
storms?
• How
do changes in the natural environment affect that
vulnerability?
•
Why does this bloody hell matter to people anyways?
Fascinating questions!
Let’s solve them, with the CV model!
Coastal Protection Model
Two Types of Habitats
Living
Non-living
Two Types of Hazards
Erosion
Flooding
Coastal Protection Model
Inputs
Coastal Vulnerability Model
• Know the Environment
• Evaluate Scenarios
Erosion/Inundation Model
Coastal Vulnerability Index
RANK
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
VARIABLE
1
2
3
4
5
Geomorphology
Rocky; high cliffs;
fiord; fiard
Medium cliff;
indented coast
Low cliff; glacial drift;
alluvial plain
Cobble beach;
estuary;
lagoon; bluff
Barrier beach;
sand beach;
mud flat; delta
Relief
> 90th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
Average value
< 25th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
Natural Habitats
Coral reef;
mangrove; coastal
forest
High dune; marsh
Low dune
Seagrass; kelp
No habitat
Sea Level Change
Net decrease
Wind Exposure
< 10th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
Average value
> 75th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
Wave Exposure
< 10th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
Average value
> 75th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
Surge Potential
No exposure
< 25th Percentile
Average value
> 75th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
±1
Net rise
Qualitative assessment of vulnerability based on
mixture of relative and absolute ranking of variables
12
Coastal Vulnerability Outputs
What’s in an Index?....rock
Rank
Variable
Very Low
1
Low
2
Moderate
3
High
4
Very High
5
Geomorphology
Rocky; high cliffs;
fiord; fiard
Medium cliff;
indented coast
Low cliff; glacial
drift; alluvial
plain
Cobble beach;
estuary;
lagoon; bluff
Barrier beach;
sand beach;
mud flat; delta
Relief
> 90th Percentile
> 75th
Percentile
Average value
< 25th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
Natural Habitats
Coral reef;
mangrove; coastal
forest
High dune;
marsh
Low dune
Seagrass; kelp
No habitat
Sea Level Change
Net decrease
Wind Exposure
Wave Exposure
Surge Potential
< 10th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
No exposure
±1
< 25th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
Average value
Average value
Average value
Net rise
> 75th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
14
Living Things! (mostly)
Rank
Variable
Very Low
1
Low
2
Moderate
3
High
4
Very High
5
Geomorphology
Rocky; high cliffs;
fiord; fiard
Medium cliff;
indented coast
Low cliff; glacial
drift; alluvial
plain
Cobble beach;
estuary;
lagoon; bluff
Barrier beach;
sand beach;
mud flat; delta
Relief
> 90th Percentile
> 75th
Percentile
Average value
< 25th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
Natural Habitats
Coral reef;
mangrove; coastal
forest
High dune;
marsh
Low dune
Seagrass; kelp
No habitat
Sea Level Change
Net decrease
Wind Exposure
Wave Exposure
Surge Potential
< 10th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
No exposure
±1
< 25th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
Average value
Average value
Average value
Net rise
> 75th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
15
Lots of Water…AND LAND!
Rank
Variable
Very Low
1
Low
2
Moderate
3
High
4
Very High
5
Geomorphology
Rocky; high cliffs;
fiord; fiard
Medium cliff;
indented coast
Low cliff; glacial
drift; alluvial
plain
Cobble beach;
estuary;
lagoon; bluff
Barrier beach;
sand beach;
mud flat; delta
Relief
> 90th Percentile
> 75th
Percentile
Average value
< 25th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
Natural Habitats
Coral reef;
mangrove; coastal
forest
High dune;
marsh
Low dune
Seagrass; kelp
No habitat
Sea Level Change
Net decrease
Wind Exposure
Wave Exposure
Surge Potential
< 10th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
No exposure
±1
< 25th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
Average value
Average value
Average value
Net rise
> 75th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
16
Relative Sea Level Change
British Columbia. Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection
Need to take land movement into account!
17
Coastal Exposure Index?
Rank
Variable
Very Low
1
Low
2
Moderate
3
High
4
Very High
5
Geomorphology
Rocky; high cliffs;
fiord; fiard
Medium cliff;
indented coast
Low cliff; glacial
drift; alluvial
plain
Cobble beach;
estuary;
lagoon; bluff
Barrier beach;
sand beach;
mud flat; delta
Relief
> 90th Percentile
> 75th
Percentile
Average value
< 25th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
Natural Habitats
Coral reef;
mangrove; coastal
forest
High dune;
marsh
Low dune
Seagrass; kelp
No habitat
Sea Level Change
Net decrease
Wind Exposure
Wave Exposure
Surge Potential
< 10th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
No exposure
±1
< 25th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
Average value
Average value
Average value
Net rise
> 75th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
Wind
> 90th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
Wind Exposure
U
16
REI
Site

U
n
F n Pn
n 1
AvgREI
AllSites
Wave Exposure
U
Exposed shorelines: ocean waves
Sheltered shorelines: locally-generated waves
Flooding!
Rank
Variable
Very Low
1
Low
2
Moderate
3
High
4
Very High
5
Geomorphology
Rocky; high cliffs;
fiord; fiard
Medium cliff;
indented coast
Low cliff; glacial
drift; alluvial
plain
Cobble beach;
estuary;
lagoon; bluff
Barrier beach;
sand beach;
mud flat; delta
Relief
> 90th Percentile
> 75th
Percentile
Average value
< 25th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
Natural Habitats
Coral reef;
mangrove; coastal
forest
High dune;
marsh
Low dune
Seagrass; kelp
No habitat
Sea Level Change
Net decrease
Wind Exposure
Wave Exposure
Surge Potential
< 10th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
No exposure
±1
< 25th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
Average value
Average value
Average value
Net rise
> 75th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
Coastal Vulnerability Index
RANK
Very Low
Low
Moderate
High
Very High
VARIABLE
1
2
3
4
5
Geomorphology
Rocky; high cliffs;
fiord; fiard
Medium cliff;
indented coast
Low cliff; glacial drift;
alluvial plain
Cobble beach;
estuary;
lagoon; bluff
Barrier beach;
sand beach;
mud flat; delta
Relief
> 90th Percentile
> 75th Percentile
Average value
< 25th Percentile
< 10th Percentile
Natural Habitats
Coral reef;
mangrove; coastal
forest
High dune; marsh
Low dune
Seagrass; kelp
No habitat
Sea Level Change
Net decrease
Wind Exposure
< 10th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
Average value
> 75th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
Wave Exposure
< 10th Percentile
< 25th Percentile
Average value
> 75th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
Surge Potential
No exposure
< 25th Percentile
Average value
> 75th Percentile
> 90th Percentile
±1
Net rise
Qualitative assessment of vulnerability based on
mixture of relative and absolute ranking of variables
22
Example Inputs
Example Inputs
Vulnerability Index Output
Oh! And What Did Martha Say?
Why does this bloody hell matter to people anyways?
Limitations and Assumptions
- Complex coastal processes summarized by 7 variables
Screening Tool
- No prediction of shoreline change
Qualitative Tool
- Site-specific sediment transport patterns ignored
General Tool
Application
28
Model Steps
1.Run Fetch Calculator
- Fetch distances
- Exposed/Non-Exposed Shorelines
2.Run Vulnerability Index
Erosion/Inundation Model
Steve@Flickr
Erosion/Inundation Model
Erosion/Inundation Model
Can treat effects of coral reefs, mangroves, marshes,
seagrass beds, oyster reefs and sand dunes
Example Outputs: Oyster Reefs
Bathymetry Cross-Section
Fetch Distances
Example Outputs: Oyster Reefs
Design Wave
H=1m; T=5s
Crest Width-1
Input Parameters
Crest Width+1
Kt
0.70
0.70
0.71
Kt
0.65
0.70
0.78
Ht
0.33
0.33
0.33
Ht
0.31
0.33
0.37
ReefHeight-1
Input Parameters
ReefHeight+1
Kt
0.07
0.70
0.84
Ht
0.03
0.33
0.40
Base Width-1
Input Parameters
Base Width+1
Example Outputs: Seagrass Beds
Let’s Run the Model!
36
Model Interface
Parameters Table
Geomorphology
Very Low
1
Low
2
Moderate
3
High
4
Very High
5
Rocky; high cliffs;
fiord; fiard
Medium cliff;
indented coast
Low cliff; glacial
drift; alluvial
plain
Cobble beach;
estuary;
lagoon; bluff
Barrier beach;
sand beach;
mud flat; delta
How to Represent Structures?
Natural Habitats
Very Low
1
Low
2
Moderate
3
High
4
Very High
5
Coral reef;
mangrove; coastal
forest
High dune;
marsh
Low dune
Seagrass; kelp
No habitat
How/Why remove habitats in CV run?
Wind and Wave Data
Model Outputs
Vulnerability Index
Erosion Index
Inundation Index
Update – Ranking Natural Habitats
Current Ranking
Rank
Natural
Habitats
1
Coral reef;
mangrove;
2
High dune;
marsh
3
Low dune
coastal forest
4
Seagrass;
kelp
5
No habitat
Update – Ranking Natural Habitats
2 max 𝑅𝑘
𝑅𝐻𝑎𝑏 = 6 −
Kelp
Seagrass
Seagrass Kelp
Low Dune
Coastal Forest
Coastal Forest Kelp
Low Dune Kelp
Coastal Forest Seagrass
LowDunes Seagrass
Coastal Forest Kelp Seagrass
Low Dune Kelp Seagrass
Low Dunes Coastal Forest
Low Dunes Coastal Forest Kelp
Low Dunes Coastal Forest Seagrass
Low Dunes Coastal Forest Kelp Seagrass
High Dune
Marsh
High Dune Kelp
Marsh Kelp
HighDunes Seagrass
Marsh Seagrass
HighDunes Kelp Seagrass
High Dune Coastal Forest
High Dune Kelp Coastal Forest
Marsh Coastal Forest Kelp
High Dune Seagrass Coastal Forest
Marsh Coastal Forest Seagrass
High Dune Seagrass Kelp Coastal Forest
Marsh Coastal Forest Kelp Seagrass
Coral
Mangrove
Coral Seagrass
Mangrove Seagrass
Coral Coastal Forest
Coral Low Dune
Mangrove Seagrass Coastal Forest
Coral Seagrass Coastal Forest
Coral Seagrass Low Dune
Coral High Dune
Coral Marsh
Coral Seagrass High Dune
Coral Seagrass Marsh
Coral Seagrass Low Dune Coastal Forest
Mangrove Coral
Coral Seagrass High Dune Coastal Forest
Mangrove Coral Seagrass
Mangrove Coral Seagrass Coastal Forest
Coral
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
0
10
0
10
10
0
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
4.500
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
0.500
0.000
2
+
𝑛
2
𝑘=1 𝑅𝑘
− max 𝑅𝑘
2
2
Mangrove High Dune
5
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
8
0
8
0
8
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
4
5
0
5
0
0
Marsh
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
8
0
8
0
0
0
8
0
8
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
10
CoastalForest Low Dunes Seagrass
3
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
4
0
6
0
6
0
0
6
0
0
0
6
0
6
0
2
0
6
2
6
0
2
0
6
2
6
3
0
6
3
0
6
3
2
6
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
3
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
2
3
0
2
3
0
2
3
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
3
0
0
0
3
0
3
0
2
3
0
2
0
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
3
3
2
0
0
0
3
0
2
0
0
2
3
0
0
20
30
Kelp
2
4
0
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
2
2
0
2
0
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
2
0
2
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(sum(ai)^2)^(1/2)
4.000
4.000
4.472
6.000
6.000
6.325
6.325
6.325
6.325
6.633
6.633
6.708
7.000
7.000
7.280
8.000
8.000
8.246
8.246
8.246
8.246
8.485
8.544
8.775
8.775
8.775
8.775
9.000
9.000
10.000
10.000
10.198
10.198
10.440
10.440
10.630
10.630
10.630
10.770
10.770
10.954
10.954
11.045
11.180
11.358
11.358
11.576
40
/2
2.000
2.000
2.236
3.000
3.000
3.162
3.162
3.162
3.162
3.317
3.317
3.354
3.500
3.500
3.640
4.000
4.000
4.123
4.123
4.123
4.123
4.243
4.272
4.387
4.387
4.387
4.387
4.500
4.500
5.000
5.000
5.099
5.099
5.220
5.220
5.315
5.315
5.315
5.385
5.385
5.477
5.477
5.523
5.590
5.679
5.679
5.788
50
64.000
4.000
3.764
3.000
3.000
2.838
2.838
2.838
2.838
2.683
2.683
2.646
2.500
2.500
2.360
2.000
2.000
1.877
1.877
1.877
1.877
1.757
1.728
1.613
1.613
1.613
1.613
1.500
1.500
1.000
1.000
0.901
0.901
0.780
0.780
0.685
0.685
0.685
0.615
0.615
0.523
0.523
0.477
0.410
0.321
0.321
0.212
More habitats = more protection!
Wave Exposure – New Approach
𝑜
𝑙
𝐸𝑤 = max (𝐸𝑤
, 𝐸𝑤
)