Transcript • This is the presentation by Keith Burrows at CONASTA 61, Canberra July 2012. • Please see the notes pages for more.

• This is the presentation by Keith Burrows at CONASTA 61, Canberra
July 2012.
• Please see the notes pages for more detail about some of the slides.
• As far as I know most of the art work and graphs is in the public
domain, but I cannot guarantee this.
• Teachers are welcome to use and adapt this material for their own
presentations. See www.vicphysics.org for updates and more related
materials.
• If you have comments for improvements or additions please email
me at Science Teachers for Climate Awareness scitca at oputsnet dot
com dot au
• The next slide has links to a number of useful websites where you can
find up to date science and answers to common denier points.
Where to get your facts – from Dr Graeme Pearman
• Australian Academy of Science: The science of climate change: Questions and
answers: www.science.org.au/policy/climatechange2020.html
• Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO: State of the Climate 2012:
•
http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/State-of-the-Climate-2012.aspx
• Royal Society of London: Climate change: a summary of the science:
http://royalsociety.org/climate-change-summary-of-science/
• The Climate Institute: Climate Change Making Up Your Mind:
http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/images/makingupyourmind_top10_web.pdf
• Bureau of Meteorology: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/
• NASA: Global Climate Change: http://climate.nasa.gov/
• US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
http://www.climate.gov/#climateWatch
• UK Meteorology Office:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/
• New Scientist: Climate Change: A Guide for the Perplexed:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462
• Deutsche Bank: Primer on answers to CC sceptics:
http://www.dbcca.com/dbcca/EN/_media/DBCCAColumbiaSkepticPaper090710.pdf
More useful resources and websites
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All of Graeme Pearman’s sites on the previous page!
Skeptical Science: Excellent site for good climate science as well as thorough answers to the denier stuff:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/
RealClimate This is a site maintained by some of the world’s top climate scientists. It is serious stuff:
http://www.realclimate.org/
Climate Spectator (unless it gets taken over by Murdoch interests!)
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/
NASA – GISS Latest data on temperature anomalies http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Renew Economy. Good source of up-to-date info on renewable energy http://reneweconomy.com.au/
The Conversation Very good source of reliable academic thought on all sorts of topics – often including
climate change and renewable energy: https://theconversation.edu.au/
Nature Climate Change. World’s top climate science journal: http://www.nature.com/nclimate
Nature. World’s top science journal: http://www.nature.com
Your school should be getting both Nature and Nature Climate Change! Ask the librarian.
Science Magazine (AAAS, USA) http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/
National Academy of Sciences USA. A lot of good material published in their ‘Proceedings’
http://www.pnas.org/
Books: My favourite at the moment is Anna Rose’s Madlands – her story of her trip with Nick Minchin
(Lib Party denier) for ABC around the world to meet people who might change their minds. (Needless to
say the program wasn’t worth much, but the book is very good!) Order through AYCC:
http://ayccshop.spiffystores.com/
Keith Burrows
Australian Institute of Physics
Education Committee (Vic)
Because:
 We (can) understand the science
 We are good communicators
 The media is doing an appalling job
 ... not to mention the government!
 The problem is urgent
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
The Earth IS warming
The climate DOES “always change”... BUT!
It is a matter of science, not opinion or politics!
That’s why WE need to get involved
What can we do?
• But first...
My “Vested Interests”
• Always check the vested interests of people
talking about climate science!
• If they are geologists on the board of mining
companies (or wealthy owners of those
companies!) they may have different vested
interests than the rest of us!
Download these
presentations from:
Intro Slide
Zero Carbon Australia
Stationary Energy Plan
A plan to repower Australia with
100% renewable energy in 10 years
Outline
• The Earth IS warming
– presenting the evidence AND addressing the deniers
– just a few examples of the science we can present
•
•
•
•
The climate DOES “always change”... BUT!
It is a matter of science, not opinion or politics!
That’s why WE need to get involved
What can we do?
Since IPCC 2007:
Sea level rise worse than we thought
“The bad news is that there is a growing consensus
that the IPCC estimates are wildly optimistic.”
“They found that ice loss is increasing fast.
Greenland is now losing about 300
gigatonnes of ice per year, enough to raise
sea level by 0.83 mm. Antarctica is losing
about 200 gigatonnes per year, almost all of
it from West Antarctica and the Antarctic
Peninsula, raising levels by 0.55 mm.”
(0.83 + 0.55 = 1.4 mm/yr, i.e. >1.2 metres by 2100 )
BUT THAT IS AT CURRENT RATES!
2010: Hottest year on record
2010 –
hottest
ever
(weak El
Niño)
2011 –
hottest
ever
La Niña
year
Climate extremes
• Records are being broken at an INCREASING rate!
Record Melting in
Greenland during
2011
But 2012 looking
worse …
Ice sheet reflectivity
this year (2012) has
been the lowest
since accurate
records began in
March, 2000
… a self-reinforcing
feedback loop that
amplifies the effect
of warming
A curious consequence of Arctic warming:
• Warming in the Arctic pushes more cold air up high
A curious consequence of Arctic warming:
• This higher pressure pushes frigid air further south
A curious consequence of Arctic warming:
And gives the USA
freezing winters!
A curious consequence of Arctic warming:
But the ‘deniers’ are in
the cold bit! While the
melting ice and
methane are in the
warm bit!
Blank
• Text
Figure 1 from Abrupt
climate change in the
Arctic Carlos M. Duarte,
Timothy M. Lenton, Peter
Wadhams and Paul
Wassmann
Potential Arctic climate
tipping elements:
Systems ringed are
suggested tipping
elements.
Tipping elements are:
those that involve ice
melting (white);
those that involve
changes in ocean
circulation
(aqua green);
those that involve
biome change (dark
green)
“Large parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are vulnerable to
collapse which would add 3 metres to global sea levels”
“East Antarctica
is melting faster
than we thought.”
Figure 14: Observed Antarctic Warming Trend (°C/decade) from 1957-2006
Steig, E. J. et al., Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature 457, (2009)
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
The Earth IS warming
The climate DOES “always change”... BUT!
It is a matter of science, not opinion or politics!
That’s why WE need to get involved
What can we do?
• Plimer says “the climate
has always changed” – we
just have to get used to it.
• “If we humans, in a fit of
ego, think we can change
these normal planetary
processes, then we need
stronger medication.”
Earth’s past climate
Hothouse Earth
Pliocene 20 Mya
Snowball Earth
Earth’s past climate
•
•
•
•
The Earth 20 million years ago (Pliocene)
CO2 about 500 ppm
About 2oC or 3oC warmer than today
Sea about 50 metres higher
Earth’s past climate
Do we really
want to go here?
MWP
LIA
Earth’s climate
Earth’s climate and Carbon Dioxide
“Paul Blanchon's
team at the National
Autonomous
University of Mexico
in Cancun has been
studying 121,000year-old coral reefs
in the Yucatan
Peninsula, formed
during the last interglacial period when sea level peaked at around
6 metres higher than today. His findings suggest that at one point
the sea rose 3 metres within 50 to 100 years.”
But the last interglacial was only 1 ~ 2oC warmer than last century
Earth’s climate – looking at the past
• Climate change in the time of human civilization
has been very minor: ±½°C.
• Talk of ‘warm Greenland’ or the ‘Little Ice Age’ is
just a distraction.
• The climate change we are facing is far
more drastic than anything humans
have experienced…
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
The Earth IS warming
The climate DOES “always change”... BUT!
It is a matter of science, not opinion or politics!
That’s why WE need to get involved
What can we do?
So what is the (Earth’s)
‘Greenhouse effect’ ?
It’s all just a bit of physics!
Actually it started with
Joseph Fourier (1820’s)
John Tyndall (1860’s)
Svante Arrhenius (1890’s)
Basic Climate Science
 “The Earth should be a lot
colder than it is”
Joseph Fourier ~1820
Basic Climate Science
 Tyndall found it was the
water vapour and carbon
dioxide gases in the air
John Tyndall ~ 1860
Basic Climate Science
 Earth’s energy balance
 Svante August Arrhenius worked it out in 1896
Basic Climate Science
 Earth’s energy balance
 Svante August Arrhenius worked it out in 1896
“If we double the
CO2 it could raise
the temperature by
about 5 degrees!”
That’s not all that
“That will make
far off modern
Sweden warmer
IPCC estimates of
– good !”
2°C – 5°C
Basic Climate Science
 The Earth’s temperature is determined by
the balance between incoming solar
radiation from the Sun…
Basic Climate Science
 The Earth’s temperature is determined by
the balance between incoming solar
radiation from the Sun…
 and outgoing ‘heat’ radiation (IR) into space
A little physics
 Earth’s energy balance
– Two simple laws of physics
enable us to figure out the
energy balance:
 The Stefan-Boltzmann law...
I = εσT4
 Wien’s law... λmax = 0.0029/T
– S-B just tells us how much
heat a hot object radiates.
– Wien tells us what sort of
radiation it will be.
(fortunately others have done the
hard work for us!)
Basic Climate Science
 The H2O and CO2 in the atmosphere trap
some of the IR and so the Earth heats up
until it emits enough IR...
 … to balance the incoming solar radiation
 At present this happens at around 15oC
(average global temperature)
Basic Climate Science
Basic Climate Science
 Carbon dioxide and water vapour absorb
the outgoing infrared (‘heat radiation’)
 “But how can CO2 which is only 0.04% (390
ppm) of the atmosphere do that?”
 Simple: Nitrogen and Oxygen do not absorb
infrared (IR) while CO2 and H2O do.
CO2 = Carbon Dioxide
H2O = Water Vapour
Basic Climate Science
 (There are good physics answers to that
question but ...)
 Here’s a simple analogy:
 Water allows all visible light through
 But ink blocks it ....
Climate science
 300 ppm (or 0.03%) might not sound like
much, but here is the effect of adding 300
ppm of ink to a glass of water:
Basic Climate Science
 The water is like the atmosphere
– it has no effect on the light
 The ink absorbs visible light just
like the carbon dioxide absorbs
infrared light
 If we could ‘see’ in infrared the
atmosphere would look quite
opaque!
Basic Climate Science
The CO2 & H2O in the atmosphere
Basic Climate Science
 This is a bit like a greenhouse...
 So it is called the “Greenhouse Effect”
 It keeps the Earth at a warm +15oC (average)
instead of that freezing –18oC
 Greenhouse Effect =
o
+33 C
Our place in space
ie. 600,000,000,000 tonnes
But is it us?
 As we burn fossil
fuels the C
combines with
oxygen from the
air and so we
expect the amount
of O2 to decrease
as we form CO2
Outline
•
•
•
•
The Earth IS warming
The climate DOES “always change”... BUT!
It is a matter of science, not opinion or politics!
That’s why WE need to get involved
– there is a LOT of non-science being spread
– not all ‘activists’ are primarily about climate science
• What can we do?
Deniers... (not sceptics)
• typically exploit easily misunderstood concepts
(past climates) to confuse the general public (and
journalists and politicians etc!)
• raise completely non-scientific arguments and
make them sound scientific (“only 3% of the CO2
in the atmosphere is from humans”)
• That’s why WE need to get involved!
Why Science Teachers?
• "I'm frustrated, as are many of my
colleagues, that 30 years after the US
National Academy of Sciences issued a
strong warning on CO2 warming, the full
urgency of this problem hasn't dawned
on politicians and the general public."
• Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research, Germany, at the International
Scientific Congress on Climate Change,
Copenhagen 10-12 March 2009.
Australia and USA?!
• In Europe most people accept the need
for strong action.
• Action IS being taken. (NOT just an ETS!)
• Why the difference?
• Politics and the media!
Murdoch Media Bias
Murdoch Media Bias
 BUT – cost to others is very minor
 Household PV actually helps REDUCE the cost to all because of the
MERIT ORDER effect.
 Reduces cost of extra infrastructure because power is generated locally
Murdoch Media Bias
 Text
Would you believe this ‘tax’ is not going to cost most of us
anything, and is a (small) step toward a sustainable future for
ourselves and our children?
Murdoch Media Bias
 Perhaps it is
not surprising
most H-S letter
writers are
against the
tax!
Murdoch Media Bias
3 June 2012
Murdoch Media Bias
And in the
very same
copy of the
H-S:
 BUT – not a mention of the fact that many scientists in the US are
warning that this is what we have to expect from climate change!
Murdoch Media Bias
 "What we're seeing is a
window into what global
warming really looks like,"
said Princeton University's
Michael Oppenheimer, a
lead author for the UN's
climate science panel.
"It looks like heat, it looks
like fires, it looks like this
kind of environmental
disaster … This provides
vivid images of what we can
expect to see more of in the
future.“
guardian.co.uk, 29 June 2012
Murdoch Media Bias
 Texas
Sept 2011:
 “– An increase in length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells,
including heat waves, will continue over most land areas is very likely
(90-100 per cent certainty)”

MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREME EVENTS AND DISASTERS TO ADVANCE
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION – IPCC 2012
Murdoch Media Bias
Bolt’s
Mad
World
Bolt’s Mad World
 “So the basic question must be:
what difference will this tax
make to the world’s
temperature? What is the gain
for the pain?”
 On the Bolt Report, Andrew
asked Albanese:
 “By how much will the world’s
temperature change as a
consequence of Australia’s
sacrifice?”
 To which he replied:
 “Andrew, you know that’s a
nonsense question.”
Bolt’s Mad World
 It's a mad, mad world out there Andrew
Bolt From: Herald Sun June 28, 2012
 NOW for the real questions about the carbon
tax you will be paying from C Day - Sun July 1.
 Why am I paying this tax?
 To stop the planet warming.
 It's warming?
 Well, not really for the past decade.
Bolt’s Mad World
 But if it started warming again, wouldn't
Australia's carbon tax help stop it?
 No. The Government hopes to cut our
emissions by 20 per cent by 2020. This will at
best cut the world's temperature by between
0.0038 degrees (Professor Roger Jones, IPCC)
and 0.00005 degrees (mathematician Lord
Monckton).
Bolt’s Mad World
 But let's pretend other countries also cut
their emissions by 20 per cent. Wouldn't that
cut the temperature?
 Not so you'd notice. If all Europe does the
same, it will cut the expected temperature in
2100 by 0.05 degrees
Bolt’s Mad World
 But won't it at least shame the rest of the
world into doing the same?
 Unlikely. The US has no plans for a national
carbon tax. China this month hinted it could
exclude electricity from its planned emissions
trading scheme in 2016.
Bolt’s Mad World
 But shouldn't we do something?
 Not something useless.
 But if it starts warming again, won't we
be worse off?
 Probably not, on balance. A modest
warming is likely to bring Australia more
rain, and more crops.
 But what about all those predictions of
disasters?
 Like our "permanent drought" that turned
into floods? The monster cyclones that in
fact became rarer?
Bolt’s Mad World
 Isn't it better to be safe than sorry?
 Not if being "safe" means wasting billions.
This week NSW mothballed its desalination
plant, built when it thought global warming
would dry the rains. Melbourne and
Brisbane had their own plants also made
useless.
 Wait. If it's not warming, and it probably
wouldn't hurt if it was, why are we paying
a tax that wouldn't stop it anyway?
 Because we're mad.
“Climate change
is crap”
“Since 1998 the
Earth has been
cooling”
“Climate change
is natural, just
get used to it!”
Alan Jones ...
(or Andrew Bolt)
Murdoch Media Bias
Alan Jones
addresses
an anti C-tax
rally in
Melbourne
''The notion of global warming is a hoax. This is witchcraft.
Commonsense will tell you it's rubbish; 97 per cent of all
carbon dioxide occurs naturally … 3 per cent around the world
is created by human beings.''
Lowy Institute June 2012
Strongly
Against:
Men 53%
Women 36%
63%
35%
Strongly
For:
Educated
58%
Lowy Institute June 2012
Serious
Gradual
Gradually deal
with it
Serious problem
Wait
Wait till we are
sure
Lowy Poll: The Age Monday 30 April 2012
 ''What we see in these results is a picture of a
relatively conservative society concerned with
local issues that influence its members' daily
lives.''
 People's concerns about industrial pollution,
climate change, renewable energy and depletion
of energy resources plummeted when compared
with an identical study in 2007 …
Media Bias
“Climate scientists – I’m talking about the 97% or so
that agree that humans have a considerable
influence on the climate – are very uneasy with the
false balance that a program such as this engenders.
From the moment a climate scientist steps onto the
stage with a climate denier, the audience’s default
assumption will be that there is a 50:50 contest going
on. It is going to be difficult or impossible for the
scientist to win the argument at the 97:3 level that
characterises the debate amongst experts, let alone
the 99.99% to 0.01% level as it exists, roughly, in the
scientific literature.”
Why Science Teachers?
• Climate change is the most significant threat
human civilization has ever faced.
• In order to appreciate the magnitude of the
problem, it must be seen through the lens of
science.
• A huge public education campaign is needed.
• (as distinct from the mis-education campaign
prevalent in many parts of the media)
Why Us?
• “These stark conclusions about the threat posed
by global climate change and implications for
fossil fuel use are not yet appreciated by
essential governing bodies
… In our view, there is an acute need for science
to inform society about the costs of failure to
address global warming, because of a
fundamental difference between the threat
posed by climate change and most prior global
threats.”
• The conclusion from: Dangerous human-made interference with
climate: a GISS modelE study J Hansen et al. Journal of Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics, 7, 2287–2312, 2007
Next slides… 1, 2
Why Us?
1) “...acute need for science to inform society...”
• We are asking everyone - EVERYONE ON EARTH - to
change the way they do things…
• …on the basis of a scientific discussion without
OBVIOUS evidence. (And some public dispute about
it.)
• Never before has the actual science been so
important in the debate…
• People need good reasons to change their behaviour.
Why Us?
2) “...fundamental difference ... most prior
global threats”
• Unique in human history…
• Threat of war could be seen – (even if often
ignored until too late).
• Once climate change is obvious it will be
MUCH TOO LATE...
• and the consequences catastrophic.
• And again, it is only understandable in
scientific terms.
Why Us?
• Dealing with climate change will require
massive adjustments to the way we do things.
• Most of these adjustments are based on
science, so...
• people need to understand at least some
basic scientific concepts:
Why Us?
• basic scientific concepts:
– Energy, and its importance in
our world
– EM radiation & its role in the
Earth’s energy balance
– Scientific method – notably the
idea of ‘uncertainty’
Why Us?
• Climate scientists are generally:
• Too busy doing their science.
• Not necessarily good at communicating with
the lay public.
• Trying to talk to politicians.
Why Us?
• Science teachers are one of the few groups
the only group in the community who are:
• Reasonably aware of the climate science.
• Numerous enough
• Able to communicate it to a general audience
• …used to dealing with ‘left field’ questions
Why Us?
If we don’t
do it, who
else will?
Ian Plimer... that noted climate expert...
It has sold very well! 100,000+ copies
And that other noted climate expert...
“UN is using the global
warming scare in order to
impose world government”
Monckton’s temperature graph
Why US?
• Other groups talking about climate change:
‘Activists’
– often
not their
real
agenda.
The science is “settled” but...
• As science teachers we could be the best link
between the scientists and the public.
– and the politicians?
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
The Earth IS warming
The climate DOES “always change”... BUT!
It is a matter of science, not opinion or politics!
That’s why WE need to get involved
What can we do?
Climate psychology
This issue of Physics World can be downloaded free from www.physicsworld.com
“The small coterie of individuals who deny
humanity’s influence on climate will try to use any
perceived flaw in the evidence to discredit the
entire picture. So how can researchers honestly
describe the uncertainty in their work without it
being misconstrued?”
“The climate-research community would thus
do well to use a diverse set of voices, from
different backgrounds, when communicating
with policy-makers and the public.”
Download these
presentations
from:
Blank
• Text
And if it’s
NOT a big
hoax?
End of main
presentation
The slides that follow
were deleted from the
presentation above
but may be useful
ALL major scientific academies and
institutions around the world have
made statements to the effect that
climate change is real, human caused,
and requires urgent action
Some scientific bodies who have issued statements
stressing the need for action on climate change
USA:
• American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
• American Institute of Physics
• National Research Council
• Woods Hole Research Center
• Union of Concerned Scientists
• Federal Climate Change Science Program
• NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS)
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• American Geophysical Union
• Geological Society of America
• American Chemical Society - (world's largest scientific organization)
• Federal Climate Change Science Program - commissioned by Bush!
• American Association of State Climatologists
• US Geological Survey
• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
• Pew Center on Climate Change
Some scientific bodies who have issued statements
stressing the need for action on climate change
Rest of World:
• UN Project on Climate Variability and Predictability
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
• United Nations Environment Program
• World Meteorological Organization
• International Council on Science
• The Royal Society (UK)
• Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS)
• Geological Society of London
• The Australian Academy of Sciences
• The Institution of Engineers Australia
• The Australian Meteorological And Oceanographic Society
Since 2005, the Academies of Science for
the G8+5 countries have called on world
leaders to limit the threat of climate
change. We have advised prompt action
to deal with the causes of climate change
and cautioned that some climate impacts
are inevitable. However, progress in
reducing global greenhouse gas emission
has been slow…
Key vulnerabilities include water
resources, food supply, health, coastal
settlements and some ecosystems
(particularly arctic, tundra, alpine, and
coral reef). The most sensitive regions are
likely to include the Arctic, Africa, small
islands and the densely populated Asian
mega-deltas.
Adaptation
Climate change is a pressing issue for
today. Action on adaptation is needed
now and failure to respond poses a
significant risk.
“When climate scientists like me explain to
people what we do for a living we are
increasingly asked whether we "believe in climate
change". Quite simply it is not a matter of belief.
Our concerns about climate change arise from
the scientific evidence that humanity's activities
are leading to changes in our climate. The
scientific evidence is overwhelming.”
• Dr Vicky Pope is the head of climate change
advice at the Met Office Hadley Centre
guardian.co.uk, Wed 11 February 2009
But this science is not getting
through to either the public
or the politicians!
• How is it going to get through given the very
strong lobby groups against it?
• This is where we come in
• Who else?
“Some of the researchers’ online discussion
reflected a pervasive climate of suspicion — their
sense that any findings they released to the public
could and would be distorted by sceptics.?”
Media Bias
“When it comes to the science of climate change, Nick
probably subconsciously imbues climate scientists
with all the characteristics of the people he has dealt
with in politics. He assumes self-serving behaviour,
dishonesty, fraud and a willingness to bend the truth
without batting an eyelid. It is no wonder that
someone steeped in this culture thinks the rest of the
community acts in the same way.”
The Age
25 April 2012
Professor Michael Ashley is in the department of astrophysics at the University of NSW
Media Bias
“Politicians are at a significant disadvantage when
trying to grasp the seriousness of climate change.
Their instinct is to search for compromises and to
negotiate outcomes. But nature doesn't compromise.
The earth's response to human CO2 emissions will be
what it will be, and no amount of political sophistry
will make the slightest difference.”
The Age
25 April 2012
Professor Michael Ashley is in the department of astrophysics at the University of NSW
Media Bias
• The Coal Seam
Gas issue:
• Emissions “up
to 87%
smaller”
Media Bias
• The Coal Seam
Gas issue:
• Emissions “up
to 87%
smaller”
Media Bias
How to get 87% less!
Media Bias
• Radio 2GB anti C
tax or anti
climate science
(Aug – Nov 2011)
• Radio 2GB pro C
tax or pro climate
science
(Aug – Nov 2011)
Media Bias
Rochester Vic Jan 2011
Marysville Vic Feb 2009
Cyclone Yasi
Jan 2011
Largest ever
recorded?
Queensland Jan 2011
• Would you get on this aeroplane if 1 out
of 10 engineers found dangerous cracks
in the wings?
• How about if 9 out of 10 engineers said there
were dangerous cracks in the wings and 1 said
they didn’t matter?
That’s about the proportion of
scientists saying climate change is
dangerous!
That’s about the proportion of
scientists saying climate change is
dangerous!
“This image was digitally altered!”
Actually it is more like over 95%
OUR PLACE IN SPACE
The Big Picture
Our place in space
(Not to scale!)
Our place in space
EARTH
Atmosphere:
N2 , O2 , H2O and a little CO2
Mean temperature: +15oC
Just right!
Why?
Climate science
SCEPTICS & DENIERS
‘Sceptics’ and ‘deniers’
 Scientists are always sceptical
 If you can show a theory is wrong that is great!
 “If the facts change, scientists change their
minds”
 POLITICS:
 Chose only the facts that ‘prove’ your case …
 and stick to them whatever!
 (Look at what happens if a politician changes her mind!)
(2006)
 Climate scientists
 From TGGWS:
 Actual:
 From TGGWS:
(2006)
Temp
Sun
 Actual:
Temp
Sun
“Climate-change denial could have disastrous
consequences if it delays global action to cut
carbon emissions. Denialism is gaining popularity
because people have difficulty differentiating
deniers’ twisted arguments from the legitimate
concerns of genuine sceptics.”
‘Sceptics’ and ‘deniers’
Typical Bolt:
“In fact, if Gillard shut down our economy
completely and shot every burping cow , the
temperature by 2100 would fall just 0.01
degrees. All pain, zero gain.”
…if nobody else
did anything!
Herald-Sun 12 March 2011
‘Sceptics’ and ‘deniers’
“In the end, he found
Bolt's writings were
calculated to offend and inflame negative views
in his readers, omitted crucial information that
would have countered the arguments he was
making, and were full of errors. He also found
that they were reasonably likely to offend,
insult, intimidate and humiliate …”
The Age Editorial 30 Sep 2011
(The “White Aboriginal” case)
It’s the
Sun!
Temperature
CO2
Sun
It’s all a plot!
“The UN is using
the global warming
scare in order to
impose world
government”
T, Co2
Decades
Is the Earth warming? Global temperatures
Is the Earth warming?
Satellites can measure the heat escaping
to space …
Low radiation
High radiation
Is the Earth warming?
 … and IT IS LESS THAN THAT COMING IN
from the Sun!
(By about 0.6 W/m2)
 The Earth must warm until they balance!
Reflected visible radiation
Emitted IR radiation
Is the Earth warming?
 Half a watt per square metre! That’s about:
 20 times ALL the power being used by
humanity
 or 40,000 Hiroshima
bombs EVERY DAY
 This MUST heat
the Earth
Is the Earth warming?
Is the Earth warming? The Ocean
Is the Earth warming? The Ocean
Is the Earth warming? Storms
It is the heat in the ocean that drives the weather
Pakistan 2010
China August 2010
Beijing June 2011
Cyclone Yasi Feb 2011
Cyclone Yasi Feb 2011
Cranbourne
Brisbane
Ethiopia
Russia
Blank
August 2010
“…the sequence of current events matches IPCC
projections of more frequent and more intense extreme
weather events due to global warming.”
…we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice
concentration in the Barents-Kara seas could bring about extreme cold
events like winter 2005–2006. … more than 3 times increased
probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe.
Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the
global warming picture but rather supplement it,
Is the Earth warming? Glaciers
 …. But these are the
very high and very cold
glaciers which need a
lot of warming to start
melting!
Is the Earth warming? Glaciers
“More than 65% of the
monsoon-influenced
glaciers that we observed
are retreating, but heavily
debris-covered glaciers
with stagnant lowgradient terminus regions
typically have stable
fronts.”
Increased snowfall is
partially making up for
loss by melting.
"People should be just as
worried about the melting
of the world's ice as they
were before,"
Is the Earth warming? Glaciers
Is the Earth warming? Glaciers
But did
the Oz
mention
this? …
Of course
not!
Is the Earth warming? Glaciers
Or this? …
Of course
not!
Is the Earth warming? Greenland
Is the Earth warming? Arctic Sea Ice
Arctic Sea Ice September 2011
Is the Earth warming? Arctic Sea Ice
Is the Earth warming? Antarctica
Is the Earth warming? Sea levels
SoC
Sea Levels – to 2012
a
Is the Earth warming? Antarctica
www.science.org.au
Published by the
Climate Commission
(Department of
Climate Change and
Energy Efficiency)
www.climatecommission.gov.au
Published by the CSIRO
and Bureau of
Meteorology
www.csiro.au
‘Climate Questions’
www.csiro.org.au
or
www.bom.gov.au/climate
or just Google
State of the Climate 2012 CSIRO
www.csiro.org.au
Overview
 Climate science 101 – Greenhouse effect
 The big experiment …
 The Earth’s climate
 Is the Earth warming?
 What can we do about it?
Does it matter?
 Sea level rises drown all our major coastal
cities
 Droughts and floods ruin agricultural land
and cause famine
 Biodiversity lost as species fail to adapt
 Water supplies (from Himalayan glaciers) to
the great Asian food bowl dry up
 Climate refugees overwhelm developed
countries
Impacts
 Sea Level Rise
 Natural disasters - see Munich RE
 Shifting eco-systems
Does it matter?
“We have already
overstepped three of
nine planetary
boundaries and we are
at grave risk of
transgressing several
others”
Does it matter?
Does it matter?





“A bit of warming won’t hurt us”
WRONG, WRONG and WRONG!
It won’t be “a bit”
It’s not the “warmth” – it’s the results of it
It will lead to a very different Earth that
hasn’t been seen for millions of years!
How do we know?
Could we be wrong?
 Science always has some “uncertainty”
 It is the nature of science to be “sceptical”
 But the more we find out, the less the
uncertainty
 Only a tiny handful of climate scientists are
not convinced
 Most of those have vested interests (Plimer)
or strong political (Lindzen) or religious
(Spencer) views
97%
 Scientists who actually work in relevant
57% overwhelmingly convinced that
areas are
the problem is serious and action is urgent
The Age 5 Nov 2011
Executive Summary: “If we don’t change direction
soon, we’ll end up where we’re heading”
There are few signs that the urgently needed change
in direction in global energy trends is underway.
On planned policies, rising fossil energy use will lead to
irreversible and potentially catastrophic climate change.
Climate extremes
Sea Levels
a
CO2 over
the
Cenozoic
period
BAU
390
280
Cenozoic:
Last 65 My
Temperatures over the Cenozoic period
19oC
15oC
Sea levels over the Cenozoic period