Transcript United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division What makes official statistics trusted by users? Heinrich Brüngger Director, Statistical Division United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva.

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Statistical Division
What makes official statistics
trusted by users?
Heinrich Brüngger
Director, Statistical Division
United Nations Economic
Commission for Europe, Geneva
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Statistical Division
Economic Globalisation: A
Challenge for Official
Statistics
Joint EFTA/ECE/SSCU Seminar
Kiev, 3-6 July 2007
Whose trust?
FP: Reference to UN Fundamental Principles
of Official Statistics
 Trust by the various user categories is only
one element of trust
 Other elements:
•
•
Trust by respondents (in exclusively statistical use
and non-disclosure of unit-level information) FP6
Trust by budgetary authorities, esp. Parliament, that
official statistics, which uses tax-payers money,
provide good value for the society as a whole, and
has a sound legitimacy FP1/FP5
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 3
User categories






Public at large (and mass media as their
intermediaries) citizens’ right for
information in a democracy FP1
Governmental and related public sector
users (at national, regional and local levels)
evidence-based decision making
Business and financial community (national
and international); NGOs
Research community
Educational institutions
International organisations
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 4
Trust by users

Trust by users can be subdivided:
•
Trust in results and products of official
statistics
• Trust in the institutions that act as producers
of official statistics and in their senior
management
• Trust in the specific institutional set-up for
official statistics and the respect by
everybody of the legal framework for official
statistics
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 5
Trust in results
•
•
•
•
Relevance of outputs (including adaptation of the
system to evolve and address new phenomena
such as globalisation) FP 1
Authoritativeness of results (derived from
processes and institutions, plus from coordination
of dissemination process across the system) FP 8
Quality (timeliness, accuracy, comparability over
time, space and between groups etc.) FP 5
Accessibility of data (including comments for nonexpert users) and of metadata FP1/FP3
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 6
Trust in producers of official
statistics, notably NSO




Integrity (all FPs that address ethical
behaviour and professionalism; depends on
institutional framework and senior
management)
Professional expertise of staff
Proven ability to meet ad hoc requests for
additional tabulation
Transparency about methods and sources and
processes of decision-making FP 3/FP 7
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 7
Trust in producers (ctd.)




Networks for regular contacts with user groups
FP1
Impartiality (perceived as being outside
partisan political games) FP1
Adherance to international standards and
internationally recognised good practices FP 9
NSO not being in charge of non-statistical
tasks that may create conflicts of interests with
impartiality or confidentiality
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 8
Trust in producers (ctd.)






System of quality management and monitoring
Comments by the NSO that transform
released figures into information
Regular analytical activities by the NSO that
add insights without being policy-prescriptive
Way to react to critics
Way to address and communicate errors
Limited but effective use of the right to react to
erroneous interpretations and misuse of
statistics FP4
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 9
Chief Statistician (CS)



For the trust in the NSO and the statistical
system as a whole, personality and status of
the CS is key
He/she personifies professionalism and
integrity, especially impartiality, to users, the
public, respondents and staff
Selection and appointment process has to
reflect these particular roles and can therefore
differ in certain aspects from the general
process that is applicable in the government
for this level
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 10
Trust in institutional set-up
•
•
•
Specific legal framework for official statistics
(statistical law)
Statistical law has to ensure professional
independence for NSO and all other producers
FP2
Government has to refrain from any
interference into professional issues of official
statistics (the « how »), and back the NSO
(and other producers) against attempts of
interference into professional decisions from
other sides
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 11
Trust in institutional set-up
(ctd.)

Dissemination and release process is key for
independence:
•
•
•
•
No clearance procedure by any authority that is
outside the statistical system
Simultaneous release for all users; no advance
information for governmental users
Advance communication of release dates fixed by
CS
Strict separation between comments made by the
NSO and comments made by users, especially
government users
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 12
Trust in institutional set-up
(ctd.)




Once appointed, CS has to have legal
protection against threats of being fired or
removed to another position during his term
For this reason, CS should be appointed for a
fixed term of at least 4 years, irrespective of
changes in governments
These rules have be enshrined at the level of
law
Government has to refrain from attempts to
sidestep or circumvent these protections
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 13
Trust in institutional set-up
(ctd.)



NSO should have the legal rigth to accept
funding from other budgets than its own for
certain statistical activities, including from
international donors, but not in exchange of
compromising on the FPs
As a consequence, the results of such
activities have to be in the public domain
A Statistical Council as advisory body,
composed of main users, can add credibility in
monitoring compliance with FPs and ensuring
relevance and adaptation to user needs
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 14
Trust in official statistics: 3
asymmetries


timewise: it takes a long time to build up
traust and credibility, but it can be
destroyed rapidly
throughout the national system of official
statistics: the credibility of the NSO is not
easily extended to other producers, but
any serious misconduct in the system
can undermine the trust into the system
as a whole
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 15
3 asymmetries (ctd.)


international: trust and credibility cannot be
imported from neighbours, but in a closely
integrated system like the ESS, any scandal
affecting one member sends shock waves
across the whole system (example: Greek
scandal)
Regular reviews and global assessments of the
statistical system, or of key statistics, by
international peers are important for credibility,
if the results are public and communicated to
the government, and if gaps identified are
addressed subsequently
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 16
Summary
•
•
Take care of your capital of trust and
credibility, use all opportunities to add to
this capital, but have a continuous policy
of prevention against anything that might
undermine it concerning all elements listed
(watchdog function)
Have regular contacts with all user groups,
and repeat explaining the role of modern
official statistics to them
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 17
Summary (ctd.)
For users:
 Do not judge the NSO by whether a new
release supports your policy and advocacy
positions, but rather by whether you would
trust the results as being unbiased
irrespective of your present political and
other preferences, on the ground that they
are produced and disseminated by
institutions which credibly adhere to the
international standards of official statistics
07 November 2015
Heinrich Brüngger - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 18
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Statistical Division
Thank you for your attention