Transcript The Future Okavango (TFO) Scientific support for sustainable land and resource management in the Okavango basin Funded by the Federal Ministry of Education.

The Future Okavango (TFO)
Scientific support for sustainable land and resource
management in the Okavango basin
Funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Within the research strategy FONA (Research for Sustainability)
Under the call Sustainable Land Management
Speaker: Christian J Mesmer – University of Turku
www.future-okavango.org
Funding period: 1.9.2010 – 31.8.2015
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General aims of TFO
The project aims at
• an improvement of knowledge based land use
management within the Okavango catchment – involving
the countries Angola, Botswana and Namibia
• the application of a trans-disciplinary approach by involving
relevant stakeholders on different scales
• the analysis of ecosystem functions (ESF) and services (ESS)
under scenarios of global change.
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The Region on a map
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The Region – trends and threats
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The Region - characteristics
• The Okavango is the only perennial river in Africa that flows
eastward without reaching the ocean,
• … is one of the last near pristine aquatic ecosystems on the
African continent, and indeed on earth and
• … is the only exploitable perennial river that flows through the
territories of both Namibia and Botswana.
• The Delta is the largest freshwater swamp south of the equator
• … which inhabits an enormous biodiversity (e.g. 71 species of
fish, 33 amphibs, 64 reptiles, 444 birds & 122 mammals)
• … and thus is of extraordinary importance for nature
conservation – and tourism.
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The Region - characteristics
• The catchment covers an area of about 413.550 km2 and is
home for 1.1 Mio. People.
• The length of the Okavango from its source in the Angola
highlands to the mouth at the outer margin of the Delta in
Botswana is 1100 km.
• In direction of the water flow the climate changes markedly
(e.g. 1300 mm annual rainfall in Huambo, 450 mm in Maun)
• Thus, the Angola portion provides 95 % of the total water
runoff.
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The Region – change perspectives
• A strong growth of human population with changing
consumption patterns causes an expansion of land use.
• Climate change scenarios forecast an increase of water stress
and extreme events for the catchment.
• The global demand for resources is most likely to severely
affect formerly peripheral regions.
• The decline of the dry woodland (Miombo) belt due to
degradation is regarded as one of the global tipping point
regions regarding loss of biodiversity, impacts on climate and
on biogeochemical cycles of other regions.
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Partners involved
Ministry of Agriculture,
Water and Forestry, Namibia
Namibia Nature Foundation
TUCSIN
ISCED Lubango
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Cooperation between subprojects
SP10
Stakeholder involvement, implementation, policy implications
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Spatial analyses:
Multi-scale remote sensing & GIS-based landscape analyses
SP 9
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7
4
5
Analysis & design of social
and economic mechanisms
SP6
Regional and transboundary
Governance
SP8
3
6
Capacity development
SP7
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Ecological and economic
valuation of ESS
User knowledge, valuation and
regulation
1
2
Assessment of ESF/ESS related to...
SP1
SP2
Climate
Water
SP3
Soils & crops
SP4
Microorganisms
SP5
Plants
SPC
Coordination & Data integration
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Key question
How to measure and valuate all/the most
important ecosystem services in the Okavango
basin, to compare land-use strategies and to
improve them in a way that raises value and
well-being for people ?
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Scientific challenges
•
•
•
•
•
To measure and valuate competing ESS on a regional level.
To understand and describe interdependencies between the
services and land management.
To develop monetary and non-monetary valuation and
quantification tools to integrate ESS in market based
mechanisms .
To understand and model trade-offs and cumulative effects
on larger spatial scales, to suggest solutions for larger
landscapes.
To find conditions and mechanisms to integrate the
knowledge about ESS into land-use decisions.
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Ecosystem services
•
Ecosystem services are defined as
„the benefits of nature to households, communities and
economics“
→ Ecosystems are socially valuable
A more rigorous definition from the viewpoint of welfare
measurement is
„Ecosystem services are components of nature, directly
enjoyed, consumed, or used to yield human well-being“
(Boyd & Banzhaf 2006)
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Ecosystem services - Examples
Examples of ESS:
• Provisioning of crops, meat & fish
• Provisioning of cotton, timber & fuel wood
• Provisioning of fresh water
• Provisioning of medicinal plants
• Provisioning of fresh air
• Protection from flood-damage
• Enabling of recreation
• Providing spiritual value
• …..
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Ecosystem functions
… are defined as
„the capacity of natural processes and components to
provide goods and services that satisfy human needs,
directly or indirectly“
(De Groot 1992)
→ ecosystems functions are a subset of ecological
processes and ecosystem structures
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ESF & ESS – an Example
Solar radiation Rain
Crop yield
Transpiration
Seeds, ploughing, protection,
(fertilizer)
Evaporation
Nutrient
cycling
Decomposition
Groundwater recharche
nutrient losses
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ESF & ESS – an Example
Solar radiation Rain
Crop yield
Transpiration
Seeds, ploughing, protection,
(fertilizer)
Evaporation
Nutrient
cycling
Decomposition
Groundwater recharche
nutrient losses
Ecosystem
service
Ecosystem
function
Ecosystem
subfunction
Proxy for
Ecosystem
service
Valuation of
Ecosystem
service
Crop
production
Nutrient cycling
Decomposition
Water cycling
Plant growth
(Pollination)
….
Potassium release
Transpiration
Denitrification
….
a) Realised:
Crop yield
Crop quality
b) Potential:
Crop yield
under
optimized
conditions
Market price
minus costs for
management
(seeds,
ploughing…)
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ESF & ESS – an Example
Solar radiation Rain
Crop yield
Transpiration
Seeds, ploughing, protection,
(fertilizer)
Evaporation
Nutrient
cycling
Decomposition
Specific tasks with TFO:
•
analyse the curent land-use distribution
•
measure realized crop yields
•
evaluate market prizes
•
evalute management costs
•
investigate potential crop yields
• under given natural conditions
• regarding the sustainability of the system
•
balance the Ecosystem service [ investigate
Ecosystem services of alternative land-use types
for same area]
Groundwater recharche
nutrient losses
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Study site selection
Photo : M.Pröpper
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Study site selection
Key regions indicated in the proposal (March 2010)
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3
4
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SP 08 Ecological and Economic Valuation of ESS
Perception of project dynamics
Integration
Scenarios, Synthesis valuation =>
informed management
SP1,SP9, SP10, SP8 (T1,6)
Vertical flow of
ESS
Catchment dynamics analysis
SP2, SP7
SP8 (T5),
…?
Horizontal/
cylcing flow
of ESS
ESS
ESS
ESS
Boteti??
Key SES
ES
Key SES
Key SES
ESS
site 1
ES
LU
site 2
ES
LU
site 3
SP2,SP3, SP4,
SP5,SP6, SP7
SP8 (T2,3,4), … ?
ES: Ecosystem
LU: Land use
SES: socio-ecological system
ESS
ESS
LU
Key SES
ES
site 4
LU
affects
ESS: Ecosystem Services (and functions)
ESS
Methods (1)
Task 1:Translating ESF and disciplinary approaches into ESS for
economic valuation
•
Aim: Project-specific conceptual framework for organizing ecosystem functions
and ecosystem services
•
Classification depends on aims. Here:
– Valuation
– Integration of results at the catchment scale to inform the design of a management
plan or river regime plan.
•
Possible criteria:
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
Public-private good (Distributional issues)
Spatial and temporal scale (management)
Joint production (valuation)
Complexity
Benefit dependence
Combination
Methods: literature research, internal bilateral discussion or small workshops
Methods (2)
• Task 2- Farming system analysis and field research
– Aim: Analysis of farming systems
– Analysis based on concept of SES
– Data: actual LU, labor and energy flows, prices
• Task 4: Bio-economic modeling and programming for shadow price
detection
– Aim: bio-econ comparison of land use options, production oriented valuation
of ESS
– Data generation: User values of ESS in local currency
– Data needed: Impacts of LU on ESS, alternative land uses
• Task 3- Willingness to pay analysis for ESS
– Aim: assessment of values of tourists for Wildlife
– Method: interviews
– Data generated: in Botswana; levels of money potentially available for PES in
local currency
Methods (3)
• Task 5 - Benefit sharing simulations of upstream services to
downstream communities
– Aim: suggest possibilities for just redistribution of wealth derived from
ESS in the catchment
– Data needed:
• Who (households/governments) affects or provide [which] ESS flow from
upper to lower catchment to Whom
• What is the institutional context [local and regional]
– Data generation: whatever is not be delivered by other SPs/projects
• Task 6 -Evaluation of land use options through synthesizing
non-monetary and monetary valuation approaches (metaanalysis)
– Conceptual and participatory tools
– Data needed: inputs from ecological valuation, cultural valuation. Use
of own data. Work with SP7.
Thank you!
Tangi unene!
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