Transcript Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs Howard J. Singer NOAA Space Environment Center NSF Workshop on Small Satellite Missions for Space Weather and Atmospheric.

Space Weather Measurements:
Capabilities and Needs
Howard J. Singer NOAA Space Environment Center
NSF Workshop on Small Satellite Missions for
Space Weather and Atmospheric Research
George Mason University, Arlington, VA
May 17, 2007
Outline
Space
Weather Satellite Observing
Capabilities in Operations

Space Weather Observing Needs
NOAA’s
Observing System
Architecture

Conclusions
Acknowledgments: Baker, Doggett, Murtagh, O’Connor, Onsager, Tayler, Viereck
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
2
Monitor, Measure and Specify:
Data for Today’s Space Weather
•Ground Sites
–Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS)
–Thule Riometer and Neutron
monitor (USAF)
–SOON Sites (USAF)
–RSTN (USAF)
–Telescopes and Magnetographs
–Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …)
–GPS (CORS)
•SOHO (ESA/NASA)
–Solar EUV Images
–Solar Corona
(CMEs)
ESA/NASA SOHO
•ACE (NASA)
–Solar wind speed,
density, temperature and
energetic particles
–Vector Magnetic field
NASA ACE
NOAA GOES
•GOES (NOAA)
–Energetic Particles
–Magnetic Field
–Solar X-ray Flux
–Solar EUV Flux
–Solar X-Ray Images
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
NOAA POES
•POES (NOAA)
–High Energy Particles
–Total Energy Deposition
–Solar UV Flux
3
Utilizing Non-NOAA Observations and Data
By continued awareness of, and involvement in research programs, SEC
can encourage and work together with non-NOAA satellite programs to
provide data for operational use.
–ACE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified
the ACE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data
–IMAGE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified
the IMAGE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data.
–Living With A Star: Through involvement on NASA definition
panels, SEC has encouraged NASA to define satellite programs
that include utility to space weather forecasting and
specification (Solar Dynamics Observatory, RBSP, …)
– STEREO: Through interagency planning, NOAA is obtaining
real-time data from a satellite beacon that is being used by
operations for forecasts and warnings of impending
geomagnetic storms.
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
4
Uses of Space Weather Data
Indicators
Input
Data
of State of the System
to Drive Models
Estimated Planetary K index
Based on Ground Magnetometers
Assimilation
Validate
Model Output
Instrument
Calibration/Validation
Research
Magnetospheric Specification Model
Input parameters: Kp, Dst, Vpc, PC pattern,
equatorward boundary auroral
precipitation, solar wind velocity and
density, IMF, DMSP precip flux, sum Kp
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
5
Uses of Space Weather Data:
Magnetometer Data Needed for Space
Weather Model Validation
The geosynchronous magnetic field is used to validate models and eventually
may be assimilated into models. It will be vital for models run in operations.
CISM: Huang et al.
U. Mich. Gombosi et al.
U. Of Michigan (Gombosi et al.)
Multiple groups of MHD modelers rely on the
GOES magnetic field data for validating their
models.
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
UNH: Raeder et al.
6
Major Space Weather Customer Needs

Communication outage probability
Solar energetic particle probability
Flare probability

Ground dB/dt probability

Human radiation exposure probability

Satellite radiation exposure probability

Ionospheric Total Electron Content
probability
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
7
NOAA Space Environment Center
Highest Priority Operational Needs
Solar
energetic particle event forecasts, including start time, end time,
peak flux, time of peak flux, spectra, fluence, and probability of occurrence
Solar
wind data from L1
Solar
coronagraph data
Energetic
Regional
electron flux prediction for International Space Station
geomagnetic activity nowcasts and forecasts
Ionospheric
maps of TEC and scintillation (real-time and future)
Geomagnetic
Solar
indices (e.g., Ap, Kp, Dst) and probability forecasts
particle degradation of polar HF radio propagation
Background
solar wind prediction
2006; not priority ordered
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
8
NOAA Space Environment Center
High Priority Operational Needs
Geomagnetic activity predictions (1-7 days) based on CME observations, coronal hole
observations, solar magnetic observations, and ACE/EPAM observations
Visualization of disturbances in interplanetary space (e.g. view from above the ecliptic
tracking an ICME)
Geomagnetic storm end-time forecast
Real-time estimates of geomagnetic indices
Real-time quality diagnostics (verification) of all warning/watch/forecast products
Routine statistical and/or numerical guidance for all forecast quantities (e.g., climatological
forecasts of flares, geomagnetic indices and probabilities, and F10.7—similar to NWS Model
Output Statistics)
Improved image analysis capability (e.g., for GOES-13 SXI, STEREO, SDO)
Short-term (days) F10.7 forecasts
Short-term (days) X-ray flare forecasts
Magnetopause crossing forecasts based on L1 data
EUV index
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
2006; not priority ordered
9
Customer Growth: Demand New Products
SEC Product Subscription Registrations
2005 - 2007
Increasing customer needs
5000
Total Number of Registrations
for space weather
information drove several
new products
6000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Ju
ly
Au
gu
Se
st
pt
em
be
r
O
ct
ob
er
N
ov
em
be
D
r
ec
em
be
r
Ja
nu
ar
y
M
ay
Ju
ne
Ap
ri l
Ju
ly
Au
gu
Se
st
pt
em
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r
O
ct
ob
er
N
ov
em
b
D
ec er
em
be
r
Ja
nu
a
Fe r y
br
ua
ry
M
ar
ch
M
ay
Ju
ne
Ap
ri l
weather products is growing
even as we approach solar
minimum
0
Ja
nu
a
Fe r y
br
ua
ry
M
ar
ch
The demand for space
Month
The NOAA Space
Environment Center website
is serving more than
250,000 unique customers
per month from 150
countries…in solar
minimum!
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
10
Economic Impacts of Space Weather
Customer Uses
Airlines and Space Weather
• Airborne Survey Data Collection: $50,000
per day
• Marine Seismic Data Collection: $80,000$200,000 per day
• Offshore Oil Rig Operation: $300,000$1,000,000 per day
Global Positioning System
Space Radiation Hazards and the
Vision for Space Exploration
The advent of new long range aircraft such as the
A340-500/600, B777-300ER and B777-200LR
Next 6 Years:
Airlines operating China-US routes go from 4 to 9
Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249
Next 12 Years:
1.8 million polar route passengers by 2019
GPS Global Production Value—expected growth:
2003 - $13 billion
2008 - $21.5 billion
2017 - $757 billion
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) – Mar 2005
11
Observation Requirements Process Past
Level
Process
OTHERS
Characteristics
OTHERS
• Limited NOAA-wide
requirements
collection
Agency
NWS
NWS
System
POES
GOES
• Requirements are
system-, not agency-,
based
Trade
Trade
Studies
Studie
s
Trade
Studies
• One Level of Trade
Studies
Segment
Space
Space
C3
LAUNCH
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
Space
Space
C3
LAUNCH
• No formal translation
of requirements to
product processing,
distribution, archive
and assimilation
12
Observation Requirements Process
- New
Consolidated
Observation
Requirements
Other Federal Agencies
USDA
EPA
NASA
DHS
Architecture Development
DoD
International Systems
DOC/NOAA
Trade Studies
Ecosystems
Climate
Weather and Water
Commerce and Transportation
?
SPACE
Trade Studies
?
System K
System N
System L
System M
OCEAN
Trade Studies
External Requirements
Collection Process
?
LAND
AIR
Trade Studies
Trade Studies
?
?
Platform
Coverage
Sensor Suite
Platform
Coverage
Sensor Suite
Platform
Coverage
Sensor Suite
Platform
Coverage
Sensor Suite
Trade Studies
Trade Studies
Trade Studies
Trade Studies
System J
System H
System E
System F
System I
System G
System D
System C
System B
System A
Federal Program/System Development Phase
System O
Commercial Program/System
Development/Deployment and
Operations Phase
Commercial Systems
Platform Location
Coverage
Sensor Suite
Interagency Requirements
Collection Process
Research and Academic
Media and Commercial
Meteorological Centers
International Partners
Other Federal Systems
Program/System Deployment and Operations Phase
Data Collection
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
Product Generation
Data Distribution
Archive
User Assimilation
13
NOAA Observing System Architecture (NOSA)
Consolidated Observation Requirements List (CORL)
Example SpWx Priority 1 Observation Requirements
Observation
Requirem ent
Electrons &
Protons: Low
Energy, GEO
Magnetosph
eric
Electrons:
Medium &
High Energy,
GEO
Electron:
Medium &
High Energy,
LEO
Pri
Spectral/
Energy
Range
T
Spatial
/
Cov
O
V
V
U
V_Lo V_Hi
T
35 deg pitch
angle
na
na
9x10^4
E^(-1.3)
8x10^8 (cm^2 s
E^(- sr keV)^(- 25
0.8) 1)
%
30 eV
30,000
15
differential
lo garithmic
bands
30
sec
na
na
9x10^4
E^(-1.3)
8x10^8 (cm^2 s
E^(- sr keV)^(- 10
0.8) 1)
%
30 eV
30,000
15
differential
lo garithmic
bands
10
sec
30
sec
10
sec
Spa Ang
Res
Measurem ent
Range
1
20 deg pitch
O angle
Measurem ent
Accuracy
U
V
U
V
U
Spectral/ Energy Sam pling
Resolution
Interval
V
U
differential
lo garithmic
bands fro m 30 4000 keV; One
integral band
>2000 keV
10 differential
lo garithmic
bands fro m 30 4000 keV; One
integral band
>2000 keV
V
U
na
na
1.9x10^ 7.2x10^ (cm^2 s
6 E^(- 11E^(- sr keV)^(- 25
2.2)
2.8) 1)
%
30 keV
>4,000
10
na
na
1.9x10^ 7.2x10^ (cm^2 s
6 E^(- 11E^(- sr keV)^(- 10
2.2)
2.8) 1)
%
30 keV
>4,000
10
T
Glo bal
co verage; 2
lo o k
directio ns
25
km
100
5X10^7
1/(cm^2s-str)
> o f {100
o r 5}
1/(cm^2-s0.05-4
str) o r %
M eV
5
lo garithmically
spaced bands
25
km
O
Glo bal
co verage;
multiple lo o k
directio ns
10
km
50
2X10^8
1/(cm^2s-str)
> o f {50
o r 1}
1/(cm^2-s0.05-4
str) o r %
M eV
7
lo garithmically
spaced bands
10
km
T
1
20 deg pitch
O angle
1
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
14
Conclusions





Described current space weather observations used
in operations
Identified space weather needs that might be addressed with
small satellite missions
Illustrated space weather customer growth that demonstrates
a need for new observations and products
Highligted the value of selecting an NSF small satellite
project that supports both research and operations
Defined the NOAA observation process that is set up to
encourage working with partners and selecting the best
platform to meet an observational need
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
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Contact Information:
Howard J. Singer, Chief
Science and Technology Infusion Branch
NOAA Space Environment Center
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO 80305
303 497 6959
[email protected]
Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs
16