intro data & tools case & Ω COSMO conclusion A case study of an explosively deepening diabatic Rossby-wave induced cyclone: the influence of environmental conditions Maxi Böttcher and Heini.

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Transcript intro data & tools case & Ω COSMO conclusion A case study of an explosively deepening diabatic Rossby-wave induced cyclone: the influence of environmental conditions Maxi Böttcher and Heini.

intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
A case study of an
explosively deepening
diabatic Rossby-wave induced cyclone:
the influence of environmental conditions
Maxi Böttcher and Heini Wernli
Institute for Atmospheric Physics
University of Mainz, Germany
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
What‘s a diabatic Rossby-wave?
Diabatic Rossby
wave (DRW)
Rossby-wave
established by Parker and
Thorpe (1995)
- upper troposphere
- synoptic-scale 2000km
≠
- lower troposphere
- meso-scale 500km
- phenomenon of the dry
dynamics
- moisture processes very
important
- ubiquitous phenomenon
- rare phenomenon
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Dynamics of the diabatic Rossby-wave (DRW)
z
x
(Parker and Thorpe 1995)
•
low-level positive PV-anomaly over baroclinic zone; sufficient moisture
•
poleward ascending jet of warm air
•
diabatic heating → PV production downstream of the existent PV vortex
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Dynamics of the diabatic Rossby-wave (DRW)
z
x
(Parker and Thorpe 1995)
•
low-level positive PV-anomaly over baroclinic zone; sufficient moisture
•
poleward ascending jet of warm air
•
diabatic heating → PV production downstream of the existent PV vortex
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Dynamics of the diabatic Rossby-wave (DRW)
z
x
(Parker and Thorpe 1995)
•
low-level positive PV-anomaly over baroclinic zone; sufficient moisture
•
poleward ascending jet of warm air
•
diabatic heating → PV production downstream of the existent PV vortex
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Dynamics of the diabatic Rossby-wave (DRW)
Theoretical studies
Case studies
Snyder and Lindzen (1991)
Parker and Thorpe (1995)
Moore and Montgomery (2004, 2005)
Wernli et al. (2002)
Moore et al. (2008)
DRW can lead to
• explosive cyclogenesis
• strong wind + heavy rain
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Data & tools I
ECMWF IFS analyses (T511L60)
•
interpolated on 0.6° hor. grid
quasigeostrophic Omega diagnostic (Deveson et al. 2001,
Dacre and Gray 2009)
height-attributable solution of the Omega equation
•
Omega forced by lower levels 1000 – 750 hPa
•
Omega forced by upper levels 650 – 100 hPa
Thanks to Sue Gray for providing the code!
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Data & tools II
COSMO model simulations
•
hor. res. 14 km, 40 vert. layers
•
non-hydrostatic
•
moist convection parameterized
•
initial and 6-hourly boundary data: ECMWF analyses
•
model output every hour
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Case overview & Ω-diagnostic
19 Dec 2005 00 UTC
PV mean 975-800hPa
SLP grey
2 pvu line at 250hPa blue
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Case overview & Ω-diagnostic
19 Dec 2005 00 UTC
x
PV mean 975-800hPa
SLP grey
2 pvu line at 250hPa blue
16 Sept 2009
Ω at 700hPa
lower-level red
upper-level blue
ascent solid – descent dotted
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Case overview & Ω-diagnostic
19 Dec 00 UTC
Pressure [hPa]
200
700
B
A
1000
A
PV shaded
meridional wind green
latent heating black
B
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
Ω at 700hPa
lower-level red
upper-level blue
ascent solid – descent dotted
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Case overview & Ω-diagnostic
19 Dec 12 UTC
PV mean 975-800hPa
SLP grey
2 pvu line at 250hPa blue
16 Sept 2009
GOES east IR
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Case overview & Ω-diagnostic
19 Dec 12 UTC
PV mean 975-800hPa
SLP grey
2 pvu line at 250hPa blue
16 Sept 2009
Ω at 700hPa
lower-level red
upper-level blue
ascent solid – descent dotted
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Case overview & Ω-diagnostic
20 Dec 00 UTC
PV mean 975-800hPa
SLP grey
2 pvu line at 250hPa blue
Ω at 700hPa
lower-level red
upper-level blue
ascent solid – descent dotted
Start of explosive intensification
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Case overview & Ω-diagnostic
21 Dec 00 UTC
Meteosat IR
Pressure deepening of
34hPa/24h !
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
COSMO control run performance
19 Dec 06 UTC
COSMO/ECMWF
ECMWF analysis
track
COSMO
COSMO
*
ECMWF
SLPmin
DRW after 36h of COSMO run
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
COSMO sensitivity studies
… moisture processes are important for DRW mechanism …
1.
2.
Where does the moisture come from?
What‘s the reaction of the DRW on moisture denial?
EVAP
suppressed ocean evaporation
continuously in a
stationary box
HUM
16 Sept 2009
moisture is set to zero
from the lowest model – 800hPa
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
COSMO - choise of the modification box
19 Dec 06 UTC
36h backward trajectories
from the maximum
of latent heating
(CH > 20K/6h)
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
COSMO - choise of the modification box
19 Dec 06 UTC
36h backward trajectories
from the maximum
of latent heating
(CH > 20K/6h)
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
COSMO - comparison of the sensitivity simulations
CTL
19 Dec 06 UTC
EVAP
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
COSMO - comparison of the sensitivity simulations
CTL
19 Dec 06 UTC
EVAP
16 Sept 2009
HUM
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
SLPmin [hPa]
COSMO - comparison of the sensitivity simulations
time
track
16 Sept 2009
CTL
EVAP
HUM DRW
HUM new cyclone
Maxi Böttcher
SLPmin
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Conclusion I
•
Diabatic Rossby-wave event with explosive intensification has been
investigated
•
Quasigeostrophic Omega diagnostic demonstrates
- absence of upper-level induced vertical motion during DRW propagation
- intensification is triggered by superposition of lower and upper-level
induced ascent
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany
intro
data & tools
case & Ω
COSMO
conclusion
Conclusion II
•
COSMO model control simulation represents DRW development
close to ECMWF analyses
•
COSMO sensitivity studies concerning the DRW moisture supply are
performed by modifications in a box (moisture source region)
- EVAP
ocean surface evaporation in the vicinity of the DRW does not
influence the propagation
- HUM
moisture withdrawal at low tropospheric levels to the south
of the system kills the DRW
16 Sept 2009
Maxi Böttcher
University Mainz, Germany