Transcript How do we maintain sustainable high-quality climate observation networks that can answer the question: How has the climate changed over the past.

How do we maintain sustainable high-quality climate observation
networks that can answer the question: How has the climate
changed over the past 50 years?
C. Bruce Baker, Director
NOAA/OAR/Air Resources Laboratory
Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division
TECO 2010 Helsinki, Finland
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We do NOT have an adequate Climate
Observing System!
 Instead we rely on a mix of observations
taken for other purposes. Observations
MUST serve multiple purposes.
 Observations justified (and paid for)
primarily for weather or seasonal-tointerannual prediction must serve other
purposes too. With a little more care, they
can serve climate change
and decadal needs.
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A Scientific Strategy for Climate Monitoring
There is compelling evidence that the climate is changing.
We can discuss the degree, nature and cause of the
climate variations and whether there is a change,
but only with a scientifically sound global climate observing
system will this be possible.
This requires
 improved observations of the state variables and forcings,
 the means to process these and understand them,
 the ability to set them in a coherent physical (and chemical
and biological) framework with models.
Meanwhile, the information is also extremely valuable for other
purposes including a myriad of practical applications
for business, industry, government, and the general public.
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Climate monitoring requires a long-term
commitment to quality and stability.
 Many of the climate-related signals are small,
obscured by natural variability.
 There must be an active program of quality control
and long term maintenance program to ensure the data
are state-of-the-art and meet climate requirements.
 Climate research and monitoring requires an
integrated strategy of land/ocean/atmosphere
observations, including both in situ and remote
sensing platforms, and modeling and analysis.
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1. Management of Network Change: Assess how and the extent to
which a proposed change could influence the existing and future climatology.
2. Parallel Testing: Operate the old system simultaneously with the
replacement system.
3. Metadata: Fully document each observing system and its operating procedures
4. Data Quality and Continuity: Assess data quality and homogeneity as a
part of routine operation procedures.
5. Integrated Environmental Assessment: Anticipate the use of data in the
development of environmental assessments.
6. Historical Significance: Maintain operation of observing systems that have
provided homogeneous data sets over a period of many decades
to a century or more.
7. Complementary Data: Give the highest priority in the design and
Implementation of new sites or instrumentation within an observing system to
data-poor regions, poorly observed variables, regions sensitive to change,
and key measurements with inadequate temporal resolution.
8. Climate Requirements: Give network designers, operators, and instrument
engineer’s climate monitoring requirements at the outset of network design.
9. Continuity of Purpose: Maintain a stable, long-term commitment to these
observations, and develop a clear transition plan from serving research needs
to serving operational purposes.
10. Data and Metadata Access: Develop data management systems that
facilitate access, use, and interpretation of data and products by users.
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The infrastructure and commitment required
•Continually assess the health of the observing system:
Oversight of all observations made for climate.
Implementation of the ten climate monitoring principles
and the management guidelines required to implement them.
 Take actions to redress deficiencies, correct problems and
ensure continuity. Requires resources.
 Ensure that all observations are utilized in real time and
operational products are developed to help in quality control.
 Links to other users and uses of the data, especially 4DDA.
 Generation of initial fields for ensemble prediction.
 Free and open access and exchange of data; real time access.
Dissemination of products. Archival and stewardship of data.
 Ongoing reprocessing and reanalysis of data.
 An advisory committee of outside experts.
 Links to research
 Continual dialog between those who make observations
and those who use them concerning the utility, quality, and
problems with observations and to foster their continuation.
 Ability to adapt and evolve the system for new technologies,
lower costs, new variables.
•
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A system is needed to assure that the data and information necessary to adequately
monitor climate will be delivered.
Some important operating principles include:
1. Adequate support should be available for changes to instrumentation
in the context of maintaining a long-term climate record.
2. Stable support is an essential characteristic of a climate observing
system. Since this is to be a sustained activity, inflationary increases
should be programmed into budget requests.
3. Contingency plans should be made for resource shortfalls so that
operation of the system is not compromised.
4. Observing system activities should be regularly reviewed.
5. Activities should produce annual plans documenting accomplishments,
future activities, and projected spending.
6. Operating cost increases or other factors often require flexibility and
adjustments by the system o perators to maintain data flow while
long-term solutions are sought.
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So, What is GCOS
Anyway?
Atmosphere
(e.g., WIGOS)
AOPC)
Ocean
(OOPC)
Climate Observing
Intersection
Terrestrial
(TOPC)
A System of Systems for Climate Observations
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In-Situ Atmospheric Climate Observations
• Systems are part of the International Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
Effort
• GCOS is the formal climate component of GEOSS
• Reference High-Quality Observations of:
• Air Temperature (Surface and Upper Atmosphere)
• Precipitation at the Surface
• Soil Moisture/Soil Temperature/Relative Humidity
• Upper Atmospheric Water Vapor
• Solar Radiation
• Trace Gases (e.g., Ozone, Methane, CFCs, HCFCs, N2O, SF6, etc.)
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
• Conforms to International GCOS Standards and Plans
• http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/
• GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-92) – Endorsed by the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program to guide international GCOS planning
• Data Management – A Key Component
• NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center – World’s largest archive of
atmospheric based climate data
• Global Observing Systems Information Center (GOSIC) – A facility run by
NCDC on behalf of the Global GCOS Community
• Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC – a DOE facility)
The Vision for Extending Reference Surface and
Upper Air Climate Observations Domestically
and Internationally
Extend the U.S. vision for building a network
with our partners, on a global basis, that 50
years from now can with the highest degree of
confidence answer the question:
How has Earth’s climate changed
over the past 50 years?
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GCOS Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) – Upper
Air Water Vapor – A Key Climate Forcing Parameters
Observations to be made at GRUAN Sites
http://gruan.org
Surface Radiation Network (SURFRAD)
http://www.srrb.noaa.gov/surfrad/index.html
The SURFRAD mission is clear; its primary objective is to
support climate research with accurate, continuous, longterm measurements of the surface radiation budget over the
United States.
GCOS Atmospheric Networks
GCOS Surface Network (GSN)
GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN)
Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW)
Baseline Surface Radiation Network
(BSRN)
The Future Sustained Ocean Observing System
for Climate -- Target 2014
Sea Surface Temperature, Sea
Surface Height, and Surface Vector
Wind from Space
Global System 100 % Complete
2009 – 61% Completion
86 Tide Gauge Stations,
All GPS/DORIS located.
(Global Coverage)
1250 Surface Drifting Buoys
(Global Coverage)
Total Number of
Observations
In 1998.
3000 Argo Profiling Floats
(Global Coverage)
Tropical
Moored Buoys
Ships of
Opportunity
Argo Profiling
Floats
note
Tide Gauge
Stations
note
Ocean
Reference
Stations
Surface
Drifting Buoys
note
Dedicated
Ships
Coastal
Moored Buoys
GCOS OBSERVING
NETWORKS
u ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS (AOPC, in
Cooperation with WMO):
4 GCOS Surface Network (GSN)
4 GCOS Upper-Air Network (GUAN)
4 Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW)
U.S. Climate Reference Network
 Making science quality climate observations
adhering to the Ten Climate Monitoring Principles
of GCOS, NRC/NAS, and CCSP
 Answering the question at mid-century: “How has
the climate of the United States changed over the
last 50 years?”
 Serving as a reference standard for other networks,
while evaluating new technology
 Leveraging USCRN knowledge and infrastructure to
support new missions
USCRN PROGRAM STATUS MARCH 3,
2009
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In-Situ Atmospheric Observations Program
Recent Notable Achievements
U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN)
FY 08 Completed Lower 48 states
(114 sites commissioned)
Lander, WY
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn
CRN Station Model
USCRN PROGRAM STATUS MARCH 3,
2009
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The Basics: How USCRN Works
Grand Teton CRN Station
Triplicate Temperature Sensors
USCRN PROGRAM STATUS MARCH 3,
2009
Primary variables are measured
with triplicate configurations that
allow for intercomparisons:
- 3 PRTs measure T
- 3 wires measure P
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USCRN in Alaska Configuration
Fairbanks
Barrow
St Paul Island
Sand Point – Install
planned in 2009
CRN sites (current -2)
GCOS sites (current -2
GCOS sites (proposed - 29)
USCRN Web Site: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn
Sitka
Science Applications of USCRN
 Using pseudonormals to generate monthly departures for
USCRN temperature and precipitation
 Threading USCRN departures with homogenized GHCN
records to create long climate time series for each station
and the continental U.S.
 Identifying transfer functions between USCRN
observations and those of other networks, including
ASOS/AWOS, cooperative observers, and others
 Publishing climate studies demonstrating the utility of the
USCRN data and promoting their use in climate
applications
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New Directions for USCRN
 Deployment of soil moisture / temperature probes and RH
instruments across the USCRN network in cooperation
with the National Integrated Drought Information System
(NIDIS) program
 Develop new soil climate QC techniques made possible by
using a triplicate configuration of probes
 Estimating surface energy fluxes with the full suite of
USCRN instruments
 Cooperating with satellite remote sensing experts and soil
moisture modelers with regards to using USCRN data for
calibration and/or verification
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New Directions for USCRN (cont.)
 New climate monitoring products, initially focusing on drought
monitoring
 Spatial/temporal data display capabilities for climate change
detection and climate variability characterization, including
extreme events
 New and improved Web site in alignment with the climate
portal concept
USCRN PROGRAM STATUS MARCH 3,
2009
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Modernization US Historical Climatology Network
Regional Climate Signal

Enable continued monitoring and assessment of regional climate variability

Sustain the historical climate record

Provide climate observational data & metadata

Improve data quality and availability

Distribute data to customers for current and future use

Integrate with NOAA’s Global Earth Observing Integrated Data Environment
(GEO-IDE)

Plan and program resources to complete Project by FY13 (i.e., complete
1000 sites)
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U.S. Historical Climate Network
Modernization (HCN-M)
 USCRN science, logistics, and computer processing are
leveraged to provide the basis for HCN-M development and
deployment
 Experience gained by USCRN with the Alabama HCN-M
prototypes proved very useful in assisting the full national
HCN-M program
 A goal of 1000 stations for the U.S. is specified to provide
sufficient spatial resolution to resolve regional climate trends
in the continental U.S.
USCRN PROGRAM STATUS MARCH 3,
2009
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U.S. Historical Climate Network
Modernization (HCN-M)
 USCRN science, logistics, and computer processing are
leveraged to provide the basis for HCN-M development and
deployment
 Experience gained by USCRN with the Alabama HCN-M
prototypes proved very useful in assisting the full national
HCN-M program
 A goal of 1000 stations for the U.S. is specified to provide
sufficient spatial resolution to resolve regional climate trends
in the continental U.S.
USCRN PROGRAM STATUS MARCH 3,
2009
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In-Situ Atmospheric Observations Program
Recent Notable Achievements
U.S. Historical Climatology Network Modernization
(USHCN-M)
14 sites in Alabama operational
FY 09: Install remaining 4 sites
AL USHCN-M Site – Standard Configuration
AL USHCN-M – additional sensors
Modernization US Historical Climatology
Network
Southwest Pilot Installations
56 USHCN-M Sites Installed
14 CRN
12 Installations in Queue
6 Installs in progress
70 SLAs in Progress
1 Paired CRN & USHCN-M
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USHCN-M Goal of 1000 Stations
(black dots)
USCRN PROGRAM STATUS MARCH 3,
2009
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THANK YOU !!
QUESTIONS ??
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USCRN in Alaska – FY10-14
USCRN PROGRAM STATUS MARCH 3,
2009
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USCRN in Alaska – FY10-14
USCRN PROGRAM STATUS MARCH 3,
2009
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USCRN Soil Climate Network
USCRN PROGRAM STATUS MARCH 3, 2009
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USHCN-M Goal of 1000 Stations
(black dots)
USCRN PROGRAM STATUS MARCH 3,
2009
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