Transcript 2010 update of GCOS IP in support of UNFCCC Paul Mason and Stephan Bojinski GCOS Steering Committee September 2010

2010 update of GCOS IP in
support of UNFCCC
Paul Mason and Stephan Bojinski
GCOS Steering Committee
September 2010
2010 Update of GCOS Implementation Plan
 Draft considered at UNFCCC COP15 in Copenhagen
 Open community review 13 November 2009 – 31 January
2010
 450 comments received
 One large expert meeting, 4 task team meetings
 Finalized on 31 August 2010 and published
 Submitted to UNFCCC for COP16
Document objectives as in 2004 --but more fully dealt with

Characterise the state of the global climate system and its variability;

Monitor the forcing of the climate system, including both natural and
anthropogenic contributions;

Support the attribution of the causes of climate change;

Support the prediction of global climate change;

Enable projection of global climate change information down to regional and
local scales; and

Ensure the availability of information important in impact assessment and
adaptation, and for the assessment of risk and vulnerability, including the
characterisation of extreme events;
What is new and what should the
Steering committee consider
advice on?
 ECV list changes and challenges

Impacts, habitats and biodiversity

Additional focus on reference and super site networks

Engagement of national scale adaptation and impact needs
 The need for GCOS to work efficiently and fairly with partner
programmes and observing systems --- in seeking to progress an IP of
increasing scope
 Taking forwards a plan with major costs at a time of economic stress
Encouraging long term ecosystem records
with monitoring to “climate” standards
GCOS Essential Climate Variables
(50 ECVs)


Priority list of variables to be observed systematically
Criteria:
 Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective)
 High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate research (WCRP), climate change
assessments (IPCC)
Domain
Essential Climate Variables
Surface:
Atmospheric
(over land,
sea and
ice)
Upper-air:
Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature,
Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties.
Composition:
Carbon dioxide, Methane, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Ozone and
Aerosol, supported by their precursors.
Surface:
Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea Ice,
Current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity,
Phytoplankton
Sub-surface:
Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon dioxide partial pressure,
Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers.
Oceanic
Terrestrial
Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind
speed and direction, Water vapour.
River discharge, Water use, Groundwater, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps,
Permafrost, Ice sheets, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed
photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above-ground biomass,
Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture.
Reference and super sites
 Some quite specific networks eg GRUAN -- but collocation is key objective
 The multi-community challenge of super
sites
 How to best deal with extra variables that
are practical at such sites
 A capacity building component
2010 Update of GCOS Implementation
Plan: Cost estimates
Moving from 0.6B in 2004 to 2.5B
in 2010?
 Feedback from network operators gave cost
increases c.f. 2004 figures of typically x2
 Satellites also have extra missions
including the addition of limb sounding
missions
 The national scale networks were not
previously included.
The national scale “adaptation”
and impact assessement networks
 Costs refer to developing countries achieving
developed country network densities
 Networks are largely the basic meteorological,
hydrological and coastal observations
 How can and should GCOS work with partners to
seek this very large level of improvement in
developing countries
What planning document will and
might follow
 Satellite supplement update planned for Jan
2011
 An in-situ equivalent would show balance
 eg re network densities and accuracies
 Such a publication would need high
observing system partner involvement