Transcript Beyond Moore’s Law The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
Beyond Moore’s Law
The best way to predict the future is to invent it. --Alan Kay
Gordon Bell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Beyond Moore’s Law
Just FCB
(faster, cheaper, better)… COTS will soon mean consumer off the shelf
Moore’s Law and technology progress likely to continue for another decade for: processing, memory, storage, LANs, WANs System-on-a chip of interesting sizes will emerge to create 0 cost systems Any displacement technology is unlikely … Carver Mead’s Law c1980 A technology takes 11 years to get established On the other hand, we are on Internet time!
new stores
Computing Laws
Beyond Moore’s Law Results
Is the Internet aka www.everything
?
Moore’s Law to get cheaper, one chip systems that increase portability, ubiquity, etc. Paper-competitive Screens Disks of 1 TB Wireless for ubiquity; including GPS
Bridges to television
Bridges to PSTN for phones, PDAs, etc.
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Beyond Moore’s Law Results
The more uniform the system, the more attractive it is for developers to produce many varieties of low cost apps The more uniform the system, the more susceptible they are to viruses
Change will be due to ubiquity of computing brought about by networking PLUS Interesting, new platforms that interface use/users
– – – –
When can we speak to these computers?
Sensors e.g. cameras of all types GPS and direction (pointing) MEMS & Biochips in particular
Moore’s Law that determine IT
Computing Laws
Big event of 1999: massive infusion of venture capital
>$3 Billion/quarter (1/3 for Internet).
…Esprit $3B/3 yrs Capital is pulling people from research.
Product development beats research if you have an idea what you’re looking for Little technology. Apps development. 1960-2000: shift from central to distributed back to fully distributed computing
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Forecast of corp web-enabled expenditures Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
In a decade we can/will have:
more powerful personal computers
– – – –
processing 10-100x 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use adequate networking????
–
ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs
–
Competitive wireless networking One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere , etc.
Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market share
watch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.
What if could or when can we store everything we’ve: read/written, heard, and seen?
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Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Storing all we’ve read (written), heard (listened to), & seen (presented)
Human data-types read text, few pictures /hr 200 K /day (/4yr) 2 -10 M/G /lifetime 60-300 G speech text @120wpm speech @1KBps 43 K 3.6 M video-like 50Kb/s POTS video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 22 M 90 M 0.5 M/G 40 M/G .25 G/T 1 G/T 15 G 1.2 T 25 T 100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P
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High Performance Computing
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1000 100 10 1
Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t)
0.1
0.01
CM2 0.001
XMP NCube 0.0001
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1995 *IBM Petaflops study target NEC
Computer types
-------- Connectivity------- WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM Netwrked Supers… GRID Legion Condor NEC mP VPPuni
Clusters
NEC super Cray X…T (all mPv) T3E SGI DSM SP2 (mP) clusters & Mainframes Multis SGI DSM WSs PCs NT clusters
High Performance Computing
Supers we knew are Japanese; scalability & COTS in… but you have to roll your own else pay the Unix & proprietary taxes Beowulf is $14K/TB ( 6 x 4 x 40 GB) IBM 4000R 1 rack: 2x42 500Mhz processors, 84 GB, 84 disks (3TB @36GB/disk) $420K … still cheaper than the “big buys” $10-20K/node for special purpose vs $2K for a MAC EMC, IBM at $1 million/TB; vs $14K
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Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers!
Continent Region/ Intranet Campus Body Cars… phys. nets Home… buildings
World
Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms
Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
Coupling to all information and information processors
Pure bits e.g. printed matter
Bit tokens e.g. money
State: places, things, and people
State: physical networks
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Bell’s law of computer class formation to cover Cyberspace
New computer platforms emerge based on chip density evolution Computer classes require new platforms, networks, and cyberization
New apps and content develop around each new class
Each class becomes a vertically disintegrated industry based on hardware and software standards
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Bell’s Evolution Of Computer Classes
Technology enables two evolutionary paths: 1. constant performance, decreasing cost 2. constant price, increasing performance Mainframes (central) Mini WSs PCs (personals) Handheld 1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62
??
Platform evolution: What do they do that’s useful? How do they communicate?
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Price, performance, and class of various goods & services
Computer price = $10 x 10 class# Computer weight = .05 x 10 class# Car price = $6K x 1.5 class # Transportation artifact prices = k x $10 type (shoes,...cars,... trains,... ICBMs) French Restaurants(t='95) = f(ambiance, location) x $25 x 1.5 stars
Bell’s Ten+ Computer Price Tiers
1$: 10$: 100$: 1,000$: 10,000$: 100,000$: 1,000,000$: 10,000,000$: embeddables e.g. greeting card wrist watch & wallet computers pocket/ palm computers portable computers personal computers (desktop)
•
departmental computers (closet) site computers (glass house) regional computers (glass castle) 100,000,000$: national centers 1,000,000,000$: the grid Super server: costs more than $100,000 “Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports
On body and in body networks Third wearables conference
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Libretto, .5mm
Not shown: ECG; GPS; PCS; Pilot Compass; altimeter Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army
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22 years ago: 6 oz. Watch, manual size > watch size
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Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters… 1 GB Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Steve Mann in Cyberspace
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CMU wearable computers
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r o I n c M e d Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Your husband just died, … here’s his black box
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When will we have smart rooms?
Reasonable sized displays or panel for interaction Cameras that can recognize various people
Mics and Speech based interface Speakers
Coupled to all power, data, audio, and video/television networks
Interval Research has a product to track individuals in stores!
Or be completely covered by a smart world
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450 Old Oak Ct, Los Altos, CA
Webcams
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Webcam of Hospital in Sweden
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Economics-based laws determine the market
As industries increase, they become horizontal Demand: doubles as price declines by 20% Learning curves: 10-15% cost decline with 2X units Nathan’s Laws of Software -- the virtuous circle Bill’s Law for the economics of PC software
Linus’s Law for software… it is free plus support
Sarnoff & Metcalf Laws for the “value of a network”
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Computer Industry 1995
Consult Andersen, EDS, KPMG, Lante, etc.
Apps
Apps Comshare, D&B, PeopleSoft, SAP Microsoft, Lotus, WordPerfect, etc.
Informix, Ingres, Oracle, Sybase,etc.
Dbases
OS
Network
Periph
Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell Novell, Microsoft, Banyan HP, Canon, Lexmark, Seagate
Micros Intel, AMD, Motorola, others
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Solutions EDS, FDC, BTG, API, DataFocus, HFSI
Future Telecom Industry
Applications Applications Databases OS Ericsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, others Microsoft, Delrina, many others Informix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, others Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUX Switching Computers Ericsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, others Compaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many others DSP Processors Dialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, others Intel, AMD, Motorola, others
Internet Industry (circa 1999)
Courtesy of Zindigo Ventures
Content Syndicators
Content Syndication $2B+ ** Internet Services $170B*
Personal/Employee Data Access Web Hosting Applications & Middleware
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Infrastructure $171B* Computing Laws
Network Hardware/Protocols Transport
Nathan’s Laws of software
1. Software is a gas. It expands to fill the container it is in 2. Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law 3. Software growth makes Moore’s Law possible 4. Software is only limited by human ambition and expectation
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Software Economics: Bill’s Law
Fixed_cost Price = + Marginal _cost Units Bill Joy’s law (Sun): don’t write software for <100,000 platforms @$10 million engineering expense, $1,000 price
Bill Gate’s law: don’t write software for <1,000,000 platforms @$10M engineering expense, $100 price
Examples:
–
UNIX versus Windows NT: $3,500 versus $500
–
Oracle versus SQL-Server: $100,000 versus $6,000
–
No spreadsheet or presentation pack on UNIX/VMS/...
Commoditization of base software and hardware
The Virtuous Economic Cycle that drives the PC industry
Standards
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Linus’s Law: Linux everywhere
Software is or should be free All source code is “open” Everyone is a tester Everything proceeds a lot faster when everyone works on one code
Anyone can support and market the code for any price
Zero cost software attracts users!
All the developers write lots of code
Sarnoff’s Law
The value of a network is proportional to the number of its users
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Metcalf’s Law Network Utility = Users
2
How many connections can it make?
–
1 user: no utility
– –
100,000 users: a few contacts 1 million users: many on Net
–
1 billion users: everyone on Net That is why the Internet is so “hot”
–
Exponential benefit
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The virtuous cycle of bandwidth supply and demand
Increased Demand Increase Capacity (circuits & bw)
Standards
Create new service Lower response time
Telnet & FTP EMAIL WWW Audio Video
Voice!
What is the value of combined network when television, telephone, and hand held web devices are added?
How do you build a home network infrastructure, platforms, and interface to uses Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Another big bang? Internet to TV and audio: The Net, PC meet the TV
“milliBill”
Home CATV
Video capture PC broadcasts are mixed into home CATV in analog and/or MPEG digital Analog/digital cable distribution Ethernet Home network Basic ideas: 1. PC records or plays thru video cable channels. 2. PC “broadcasts” art images, webcams, presentations, videos, DVDs, etc.
3. Ethernet not cable?
Settop box
PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg
Using PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels
Gordon Bell Jim Gemmell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Research
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Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation
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Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
The Next Convergence POTS connects to the Web a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways
Web Server PSTN The Web Voice to WEB Bridge
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DataBase
Computing Laws
WebOnPhone
Mission:
Enable voice and text access on phones, screen phones, PDAs and other devices to existing Internet infrastructure in an intelligent, customizable way.
WebOnPhone
Computing Laws Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020
Data Telephony Television
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Will we have
Hardware technology: processing, memory, networking, and new interfaces enable the new computers
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1. We get more
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Extrapolation from 1950s:
20-30% growth per year
Tera Giga Mega Storage Backbone Processing Memory ??
Kilo 1 Telephone Service 17% / year 1977
National Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (size)
10000 0.35
Mem(MBytes) 0.3
Micros Mtr/chip Line width 1000 0.25
0.2
100 10 1 1995 1998
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2001 0.15
0.1
0.05
0 2007 2010 2004
Computing Laws
National Storage Technology Roadmap (size, density, speed)
1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 .5 " Ca p . ( B y te s ) 1 .3 " Ca p . ( B y te s ) B its /s q . in .
Da ta - r a te ( B y te s /s ) 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
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1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0
Computing Laws
2 0 0 5 1
Growth of microprocessor
1000 100 10 1 0.1
0.01
8087 Cray 2 Cray X-MP Cray Y-MP Cray C90 Cray 1S R2000 Alpha RS6000/540 i860 80387 6881 80287 Cray T90 Supers Micros
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Microprocessor performance
100 G 10 G Giga 100 M 10 M Mega Kilo Peak Advertised Performance (PAP) Real Applied Performance (RAP) 41% Growth Moore’s Law 1990
System-on-a-chip alternatives
FPGA Compile a system Systolic | array DSP | VLIW Sea of un-committed gate arrays Unique processor for every app Many pipelined or parallel processors Special purpose processors Pc & Mp.
ASICS Gen. Purpose cores. Specialized by I/O, etc.
Universal Micro Multiprocessor array, programmable I/o Xylinx, Altera Tensillica TI Intel, Lucent, IBM Cradle
Cradle: Universal Microsystem
trading Verilog & hardware for C/C++
UMS : VLSI = microprocessor : special systems
Software : Hardware
Single part for all apps
Programming @ run time via FPGA & ROM
5 quad mPs at 3 Gflops/quad = 15 Glops Single shared memory space, caches
Programmable periphery including: 1 GB/s; 2.5 Gips PCI, 100 baseT, firewire
$4 per flops; 150 mW/Gflops
UMS Architecture
G I/O PRO G I/O PRO M S P M S P M S P M S P MEMORY G I/O PRO G I/O M S P M S P M S P M S P MEMORY PRO DRAM CONTROL CLOCKS, DEBUG MEMORY M S P M S P M S P M S P MEMORY M S P M S P M S P M S P PROG I/O PROG I/O NVMEM DRAM
Memory bandwidth scales with processing Scalable processing, software, I/O Each app runs on its own pool of processors Enables durable, portable intellectual property
Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year
1.E+21 1.E+18 1.E+15 1.E+12 1.E +9 1.E+6 60%= Exaops 40%= Petaops 20%= Teraops 2025
Communication rate(t) in log 10 (Kbps)
10 1 Gb 9 8 SAN/backpanels 7 LAN 1 Mb 6 5 WAN ISDN 4 ???
???
POTS @ 17%/year 1 Kb 3 POTS 1965 1975 1985
Computing Laws
1995 2005
USA Today 1 Sept. 99
Plus >>B/W Nomadicity Universality Video...
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2.0
0.8
The evolution of wireless data standards
0.4
0.2
0.1
0 UMTS 2Mbps Circuit data <9.6kbps
GPRS 115kbps HSCSD 57.6kbps
EDGE 384kbps
Computing Laws
Public Spaces
Bluetooth
Discovery of proximity services (flight schedules, mall directories)
Phone Cellular Internet T1, T3, … IrDA Web Server Proxy Server Ethernet 802.11
Internet Traffic and Voice Traffic Plus Maximum Trunk Speed and Max/Min Switch Speed Required in the Internet
Internet growths vs time
courtesy of Dr. Larry Roberts
100 Pbps 10 Pbps 1 Pbps 100 Tbps 10 Tbps 1 Tbps 100 Gbps 10 Gbps 1 Gbps 100 Mbps 10 Mbps 1 Mbps 100 Kbps $100 K 56 KB 10 Kbps 1 Kbps 100 bps Voice Traffic Max. Switch Speed OC-3 Voice Crossover OC-12 $10 M OC-48 $100 M OC-192 Internet Traffic 1997 Breakpoint
Computing Laws
1995 2000 2005 2010 1970 1975
T1 Max. Port Speed T3
1980 1985 1990
$100 K $1 M OC-768
Desktop-desktop @ 1 gbps
http://research.
microsoft.com/ ~gray/papers/ Win2K_1Gbps.doc
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1988 Federal Plan for Internet
In a decade we can/will have:
more powerful personal computers
– – – –
processing 10-100x 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use adequate networking????
–
ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs
–
Competitive wireless networking One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere , etc.
Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market share
watch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.
The End
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws
Things get cheaper
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Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil!
100000 8 MB 10000 1 MB 1000 256 KB 100 64 KB 16 KB $K 10 Timeshared systems 1 0.1
Single-user systems 0.01 1960 1970
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1980
Computing Laws
VAX Planning Model 1975: I didn’t believe it
The model was very good
–
1978 timeshared $250K VAXen cost about $8K in 1997!
Costs declined > 20%
–
users get more memory than predicted Single user systems didn’t come down as fast, unless you consider PDAs
Newer & cheaper always wins?
… if it weren’t for the Law of Intertia
Old Old New
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New
Computing Laws
“The mainframe is dead!
… and for sure this time!”
P R I C E Mainframe Server PC
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The law of data and program inertia sustains platforms!
The investment in programs and processes to use them, and data exceed hardware costs
The cost to switch among platforms e.g. IBM mainframe, VMS, a VendorIX, or Windows/NT is determined by the data and programs The goal of hardware suppliers is uniqueness to differentiate and lock-in
The goals of software/database suppliers are: to differentiate and lock-in and operate on as many platforms as possible in order to be not tied to a hardware vendor
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Computer industry growth (Gbell’s swag 12/99)
Machine class
Watch
1992
Cellphone WAP
Appliance of some type TC (TV Computer) Handhelds na Network Computer PC (portables) PC (desktop) Workstation > = = VendorIX server (mini)> Mainframe Super (classic) Scalable PCs < = = 1998 = >> = > = < >> < < 2004 > >> = >> = > > = < > < << > >>
Computing Laws
The End
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