Transcript SAN DIEGO RevPar: Past, Present & Future 24 May 2010 Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global.

SAN DIEGO RevPar:
Past, Present & Future
24 May 2010
Bobby Bowers
Smith Travel Research /
STR Global
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Total United States
Key Performance Indicators Percent Change
April 2010 – Trailing 12 Months & Year-to-Date
Total United States
Room Supply/Demand Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010
2.9%
-1.7%
-1.1%
- 4.8%
- 6.9%
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
Total United States
Occupancy/ADR Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010
0.1%
-4.5%
-3.4%
-4.7%
-6.8%
-7.4%
-9.6%
Total United States
RevPAR Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010
- 11.5%
-10.5%
-16.8%
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
Top 25 Markets versus rest of U.S.
Key Performance Indicators Percent Change
April 2010 YTD
Chain Scales
STR Chain Scales
Selected Brands by Category
• Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont
• Upper Upscale – Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Sheraton
• Upscale – Cambria, Courtyard, Hilton Garden Inn
• Midscale with F&B – Ramada, Holiday Inn, Best Western
• Midscale no F&B – Comfort Inn, Fairfield Inn, H.I. Express
• Economy – Econolodge, Days Inn, Red Roof
Chain Scales
Supply/Demand Percent Change
April 2010 YTD
Chain Scales
Occupancy/ADR Percent Change
April 2010 YTD
San Diego
San Diego
Key Market Facts
• 464 hotels / 58k rooms
• 310 rooms under construction - 0.5%
• $1.6 billion annual room revenue
• 41% room revenue - Downtown
• 41% room revenue – Luxury / Upper Up
• 2009 ADR fell 20.2% - # 6 among top 25
San Diego
Key Performance Indicators Percent Change
April 2010 – Trailing 12 Months & Year-to-Date
San Diego
Weekday / Weekend Percent Change
April 2010 YTD
Weekends = Friday / Saturday
San Diego – Luxury, Upper Upscale, Upper Tier Independents
Transient / Group - Percent Change
April 2010 YTD
San Diego
Key Indicators - Percent Change
May 1 – 15, 2010
San Diego
Room Supply/Demand Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010
2.8%
-0.3%
-7.8%
-8.4%
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
San Diego
Occupancy/ADR Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010
-3.0%
-3.7%
-11.4%
-8.2%
-11.9%
San Diego
RevPAR Percent Change
Twelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010
- 14.6%
-21.2%
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
San Diego
RevPAR - Monthly Percent Change
January 2008 – April 2010
2008
2009
San Diego
Occupancy - Monthly Percent Change
January 2008 – April 2010
2008
2009
San Diego
Average Daily Rate - Monthly Percent Change
January 2008 – April 2010
2008
2009
Key 15 Markets
RevPar Percent Change
April 2010 YTD
Excludes Las Vegas
Key 15 Markets
Occupancy Percent Change
April 2010 YTD
Excludes Las Vegas
Key 15 Markets
ADR Percent Change
April 2010 YTD
Excludes Las Vegas
San Diego Chain Scales - Revenue Share (%)
Twelve Months Ending March 2010
Annual San Diego revenue room = $1.6 billion
San Diego - Chain Scales
Occupancy/ADR Percent Change
2010 April YTD
San Diego Sub Markets - Revenue Share (%)
Twelve Months Ending April 2010
Annual San Diego revenue room = $1.6 billion
San Diego Sub Markets
Occupancy/ADR Percent Change
April 2010 YTD
San Diego Sub Markets
Occupancy Percent
April 2010 YTD
San Diego – Sub Markets
Average Daily Rate
April 2010 YTD
Projections
U.S. Economic Outlook
Blue Chip Economic Indicators – May 2010
2009
2010F
2011F
Real GDP
-2.4%
+3.2%
+3.1%
CPI
-0.4%
+2.0%
+1.9%
Corporate Profits
-3.8%
+19.4%
+8.1 %
Disp Personal Income
+0.9%
+1.3%
+2.6%
9.3%
9.6%
8.9%
Unemployment Rate
Total United States
Active Development Pipeline - Rooms
Change From Prior Year
April 2010
In Construction
April 2009
Change
% Chg
77,404
170,242
-92,838
-54.5%
“Planned” Pipeline 289,676
363,326
-73,650
-20.3%
Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases
Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
Total United States
Key Performance Indicators Percent Change
Full Year 2009 Actual & 2010 / 2011 Forecast
San Diego, CA Market
Supply & Demand Outlook
2008-2010F Annual vs. Prior Year
San Diego, CA Market
Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR Outlook
2008-2010F Annual vs. Prior Year
San Diego
ADR Percent Change vs. U.S. Inflation
Takeaways
• Value is King – What’s distinctive about
your product?
• Performance trough likely past
• Supply growth slowing
• Demand slowly improving
• Pricing conditions improving
• Moderate improvement 2010
• Meaningful growth anticipated 2011