Transcript World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Background on Weather, Hydrological and Climate Services for Financial Risk Transfer markets Maryam Golnaraghi,

World Meteorological Organization
Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO
Background on Weather, Hydrological and Climate
Services for Financial Risk Transfer markets
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
First Meeting of the WMO Expert Advisory Group on Financial Risk Transfer (EAG-FRT I)
13-14 December 2011
WMO HQ, Room 8 Jura
Geneva, Switzerland
www.wmo.int
Increasing Number of Meteorological, Hydrological
and Climate Hazards (1980 – 2010)
Source: Munich Re Topics Geo 2010
Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related
Extremes on the Rise !
Energy
Hazard intensity and
frequency increasing linked
to climate variability and
change!
Aral Sea
Transportation
Water Resource
Management
Intensity
Strong Wind
People
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Agriculture
Urban areas
Vulnerability and
exposure on the rise !
Drought
Need for
Multi-sectoral risk
management
Heatwaves
Frequency
Three international negotiation processes related to
Disaster and Climate Risk Management and links
to Financial Risk Transfer
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Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) – United
Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
(UN-ISDR)
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
(WCC-III)
Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 – 2015
Weather, Hydrological and Climate Services for Comprehensive
Risk Management Decision Making
Governance and Institutional Framework
(Multi-sector, Multi-level, Multi-Hazard)
Risk Assessment
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
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Climate forecasting
and trend analysis
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
Risk Reduction
PREPAREDNESS:
early warning systems
emergency planning
Risk Transfer
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PREVENTION and
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MITIGATION:
Sectoral Risk Management
Medium to long term planning
(e.g. zoning, infrastructure,
agriculture…)
CAT insurance & bonds
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Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Information and Knowledge Sharing
Education and training
Hazard / Risk Assessment
(historical and forward looking)
Hazard
Analysis and
Mapping
Exposure
and
Vulnerability
Potential
Loss
Estimates
Number of
lives at risk
$ at risk
Heavy Precipitation
and flood mapping
Need for historical and
real time data
Statistical analysis tools
meteorological,
hydrological and climate
forecasts and trend
analysis
Assets:
 population density
 agricultural land
 urban grid
Infrastructure
Businesses
etc
Destruction of
buildings and
infrastructure
Reduction in crop
yields
Business
interruption
etc
This
information is
critical for
decision-making
and
development of
strategies to
reduce the risks
Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems
National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms
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Sectoral Risk Assessment and Management
Recent advances in climate forecasting and trend analysis
provide unprecedented opportunities to support ….
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Water resource management
Land zoning
Infrastructure and planning (urban, rural)
Agricultural productivity and food security
Health epidemics
Insurance / Finance
Tourism
(Re)Insurance Markets and other Alternative
Risk Transfer Mechanisms
Which Risks?
Financial risks
What type of
Financial tools?
Traditional and
Alternative Risk
Transfer tools and
schemes
Who Could
Benefit?
Governments
Companies
Individuals
Other
Requirements for
Hydro-Met and
climate Services?
Historical and real-time
data
Sub-seasonal, Seasonal
to inter-annual climate
forecasts
Decadal climate trend
analysis
Long term trend
analysis
WMO DRR Crosscutting Programme
To leverage expertise, resources and
capacities of WMO Members, technical
programmes and operational network and
to build alliances with the UN and other
partners to support capacity development
for disaster risk reduction decisionmaking at all levels.
Integrated approach to Delivery of Weather and
Climate Services for Target Sectors
Disaster Risk Reduction: Life & economic losses
USERs: Disaster Risk Management, Agriculture, Water
Resource Management, Infrastructure, Urban
development, Health, Insurance, etc
Products and Service Delivery
Capacity Building
Forecasting and analysis tools
Observations and
data
Research and modeling
International aspects
framework changing!
Regional aspects
National aspects, DRR Governance and institutional
Integrated approach to Delivery of Weather and
Climate Services for Target Sectors
Other National Technical and Sectoral
Implementing Partners
Hydrological
Service
Ocean
Services
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Health
Services
National DRR Governance
and Institutional
Frameworks
National
Users
Space Agency
SOPs
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Observations and
monitoring
Operational
Nowcasting,
Forecasting and
other Analysis
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DRR Products &
Services
Core operational components
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Data & Analysis
Warnings, forecasts and
other value-add products
Service
Delivery
SOPs
Data Management Systems
ETC…
Quality Management Systems (QMS)
Local Governments
Disaster Risk
Management Agencies
Telecommunication Infrastructure and dissemination to Users
Human Resource Development & Training
- Transportation
- Health
- Food & Agriculture
- Water Management &
Safety
- Coastal Zone
Management
- Etc…
National Governance and
Policy Makers
Technical Advisory Services
Requirements &
Feedback
General Public
Media
Private Sector
Non Governmental
Organizations (NGOs)
Regional
Etc…
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Sectors:
National Meteorological Services
National
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GTS, WIS
Global Regional Specialized Meteorological,
Climate Centers (RSMCs and RCCs)
and Space Agencies
Need for significant Capacity development of NMHS for
delivery of meteorological, hydrological and climate
services
• 70% need restructuring of national
policies and legislation and
clarification or roles of NMHS
• 67% full or some modernization
of infrastructure (observations,
operational forecasting, telecom,
etc))
• 80% technical and management
training
• 80% strengthening or building
multi-sectoral partnerships
WMO DRR Survey (2006)
Strengthening Services through Linking Knowledge and
guidelines to Capacity Development Projects
Identification and
documentation of good
practices
(Policy, institutional, technical operations,
products and services, etc. )
Members, RAs, DRR
partners and Regional
centers
Technical Commissions,
Programmes and
Technical Partners
Development of
guidelines,
standards, tools,
methodologies and
training
programmes
Monitoring,
Evaluation
and Feedback
Operationalization
and Capacity
Development
Knowledge
Development
Coordinated
National and
Regional Projects
DRR Implementation Approach
Thematic Guideline and good practices
• Thematic Expert Advisory Groups (Users, partners,
WMO Members) to guide the overall approach
– Expert Advisory Group on MHEWS (will continue)
– Expert Advisory Group on Hazard/Risk Assessment
– Expert Advisory Group on Financial Risk Transfer
– Task Team for provision of Met/Hydro and Climate Services for
Humanitarian Planning, Preparedness and response
• Systematic engagement of WMO technical
commissions/programmes and Membrs
• Leveraging with other partners’
Comprehensive Capacity Development DRR and
Adaptation Projects Underway
Partners: WMO, World Bank, UN-ISDR, UNDP, Regional Socio-economic
Groupings and regional DRR agencies, Regional Centers, WMO Regional
Association, NMHS, National DRM agencies and economic line ministries
Central America
and Caribbean
(2010- present )
Costa Rica and
Mexico and all
Caribbean
Islands
South East
Europe (2007present)
South Asia
(early
discussion
stage)
8 countries
5 Countries
Haiti
South East
Asia (2010
– present)
6 countries
Since
2010 with
Members
& UN
Background related to establishment of
EAG-FRT …..
• Traditional and alternative risk transfer
markets…
• Legislative developments in developed
countries (e.g., US, UK, EU)
• Penetration of FRT to developing and least
developed countries
• Changing risk profiles linked to climate change
• Expressed need from the sector for weather,
hydrological and climate services
Background related to establishment of
EAG-FRT …..
• WMO consultations (2007 – 2011):
• Expert Meeting on “Requirements of the Catastrophe Insurance and Weather
Risk Management Markets”, 5 - 7 December 2007, WMO Headquarters
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007)
• Plenary Panel on Climate Extremes, Early Warning and Disaster Risk Reduction
at WCC-III (31 August – 4 September 2009
(http://www.wmo.int/wcc3/page_en.php)
• Panel on “Climate Services, Catastrophe Risk and Capital Markets – GPDRR III,
11 May 2011 (Geneva, Switzerland),
(http://www.preventionweb.net/globalplatform/2011/programme/sideevents/v.php?id=194)
• Participation in various user forums
• WMO Executive Council deliberations: 58th, 59th,
60th sessions of Executive Councils
• Request of the 16th WMO Congress (May 2011)
Establishment of the WMO Expert Advisory
Group on Financial Risk Transfer
(Overall Goals)
• Concrete recommendations for priorities, targets
and deliverables between 2012 and 2015
– Good practices, lessons learned and training and
awareness raising among the meteorological,
hydrological and climate communities
– Research
– Needs and requirements for targeted (data,
forecasting, etc) operational services and service
delivery models
– Partnerships and alliances with user community
– Pilots and implementation
First Meeting of the WMO Expert Advisory
Group on Financial Risk Transfer
13 – 14 December 2011 (Expected Outcomes)
• recommendations for priorities, targets and
deliverables between 2012 and 2015
• Final Terms of Reference of EAG-FRT
• Criteria for good practice identification of cases
for documentation in 2012
first guidelines and training
• Outline of the EAG-FRT work plan (2012 –
2013)
• Date of the 2nd meeting of the EAG-FRT in
2012
First Meeting of the WMO Expert Advisory
Group on Financial Risk Transfer
13 – 14 December 2011 (meeting web page)
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/EAG-FRT/FRT1/index_en.html
First Meeting of the WMO Expert Advisory
Group on Financial Risk Transfer
13 – 14 December 2011 (Documents)
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Doc 1: Agenda
Doc 2: Background
Doc 3: membership and Draft TOR of EAG-FRT
Other background documents
First Meeting of the WMO Expert Advisory
Group on Financial Risk Transfer
13 – 14 December 2011 (Sessions)
• Session 1: Opening and introduction
• Session 2: Disaster Risk Financing and Financial Risk
Transfer Markets Related to Weather, Hydrological
and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate (User
Perspectives)
• Session 3: Research and Operational Meteorological,
Hydrological and Climate Services to Support Target
FRT Markets and Lessons Learned
• Session 4: Finalization of the Terms of Reference of
ERG-FRT and the work plan
Thank You
For more information please contact:
Dr Maryam Golnaraghi
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Division
World Meteorological Organization
7 bis, Avenue de la Paix
P.O. Box 2300
CH-1211 Geneva, 2, Switzerland
Tel: (+41 –22) 730-8006
Fax: (+41 –22) 730-8128
Email:[email protected]
http://www.wmo.int/disasters