Transcript Contributions of Drought Studies to the Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS) Sept.

Contributions of Drought Studies to the Global
Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS)
Sept. 27, 2010
Rick Lawford
UNESCO, Paris
• GEO is an Intergovernmental Group
– 80 Nations
– European Commission
– 58 Participating Organizations
• With a Single Objective: GEOSS
– To establish a global, coordinated, comprehensive
and sustained system of Earth observation systems
© GEO Secretariat
Observations
GEOSS Networking
-Task sheets
- CoPs
-Workshops
- Prototypes
Science
User Services
For Societal
Benefit Areas
Operational
Systems
Technology
Specific Gaps Addressed by GEO:
-Information inventories
- data democracy
- interoperability
- governance
Observations
GEOSS Networking
-Task sheets
- CoPs
-Workshops
Science
User Services
For Societal
Benefit Areas
Operational
Systems
Technology
Specific Gaps Addressed by GEO:
-Information inventories
- data democracy
- interoperability
- governance
Interactions between the 2009-2011 GEO Water Tasks
Water Cycle Target: By 2015, produce comprehensive sets of data, and
information products and services to support decision-making for efficient
management of the world's water resources, based on coordinated, sustained
observations of the water cycle on multiple scales.
Droughts, Floods and Water
Resource Management
Address decision-making
challenges related to the
management of hydrometeorological extremes
and the sustainable use of
water.
Task WA-06-02
addresses the use
of these data for
assessments and
early warning
Task WA-08-01
stimulates the
development
of new WC
data products
Feedback
DA—09-02A
Task WA-06-07
disseminates data
products and
decisions support
systems to the
world
Work on drought draws upon the integrative products of WA-08-01 and contributes
to the dissemination and capacity building tasks of WA-06-07.
Impacts from Drought
GEO Task WA-06-02b
Co- Leads: Canada, USA and WCRP
Tracking and analyzing impacts from drought (including
feedbacks such as soil drying) will provide a tangible and
practical demonstration of the value of integrated water cycle
observations by developing a full and operational data cycle of
environmental information from “producer-to-consumer” /
“source to sink,” and exploring the application of data products
in the Water and Agriculture societal benefit areas.
Drought Impacts are tracked nationally and
regionally because:
• They establish an impacts baseline for monitoring
– Climate change, policy change effects, landscape modification, etc
• They direct relief in effective ways through national governments
• They allow directed preparotory actions to be undertaken to reduce
vulnerability in advance of the next drought
• They are a basis for “ground truthing” indices
• They provide a basis for quantifying drought losses
• They provide information for estimating environmental consequences
of drought.
• (Could they provide the same benefits if tracked globally?)
Lessons learned about impact studies
and drought monitoring
1) Both impacts and monitoring
aspects of drought must be looked at
simultaneously to understand the scope
of drought.
2) In order to provide more comprehensive drought
monitoring a broad categorization is needed.
3) To meet the needs of governments special overlays are
often needed (portray information by constituency).
4) Drought reporting creates opportunities for “citizen
science”.
Drought in Europe: The Portuguese Condition
Water erosion in EU
Wind erosion in EU
115 million ha
42 million ha
(12% total area)
(4% total area)
Organic C in european soils (0-30 cm), in relation with soil erosion
(Source: European Commission, 2004. Reports of the Technical Working Groups, II)
GEO-DRI Drought Monitoring Workshop
May 10-11, 2010, Winnipeg, Manitoba (Canada)
Drought studies indicate that we need to consider a wider
range of basic water cycle variables within GEO.
Wheat Quality: Statistically Significant
Drought Index Correlations by Category
(from Paul Bullock)
Water Supply Indices
Water Demand Indices
Water Balance Indices
Water Use Indices
AC Barrie Superb
0
3
19
24
14
18
7
7
Evapotranspiration provides a more accurate estimate of wheat
yield and quality than precipitation and should be utilized for
assessment of agricultural drought.
DRI 2008
Calgary
Uzbekistan is the main water resources consumer in Central Asian region
Surface water use
3%
2% 3% 2%
Agriculture
Domestic needs
Power
90% Techniques needed to monitor hydrological
drought especially where
Industry
the conditions are affected by both
management practices and climate.
Fishery
Even at present time there is significant deficiency of water resources in the region, and the most important problem is Aral Sea crisis.
1987 y.
2005 y.
By 2007, water-level dropped to 30 meter mark due to intensive water
consumption, the sea practically split into three parts and the volume of water
decreased by 10 times.
2009 y.
Towards a Hydrologic Drought Monitor
• Employed the threshold technique to characterise hydrologic
drought
– Based upon work by Yevjevich (1967)
• Threshold level employed was the 10th percentile of monthly
stream flow
Variables:
•Qz= threshold level
•ti= start of drought
•di= drought duration
•vi= deficit volume of
drought (severity)
•vi/di= average deficit
flow (intensity)
Figure modified from Flieg et al (2006)
Results
Actual and Apportionment Streamflow Drought Occurrence at Provincial Boundaries
a)
b)
AB-SK Border
c)
Gauging Station
d)
e)
f)
g)
h)
SK-MB Border
i)
j)
k)
l)
Dec/2004
Oct/2004
Aug/2004
Jun/2004
Apr/2004
Feb/2004
Dec/2003
Oct/2003
Aug/2003
Jun/2003
Apr/2003
Mar/2003
Dec/2002
Oct/2002
Aug/2002
Jun/2002
May/2002
Mar/2002
Dec/2001
Oct/2001
Aug/2001
Jul/2001
May/2001
Mar/2001
Dec/2000
Oct/2000
Aug/2000
Jul/2000
May/2000
Mar/2000
Dec/1999
Nov/1999
Sep/1999
Jul/1999
May/1999
Mar/1999
Jan/1999
Year
Apportionment
Actual
Gauging Stations: a) North Saskatchewan at Border, b) Red Deer at Bindloss, c) South Saskatchewan below Red Deer, d) South Saskatchewan at
Medicine Hat, e) Battle Creek at Border, f) Lodge Creek at Border, g) Middle Creek at Border, h) Churchill River at the Border, i) Saskatchewan at
The Pas, j) Red Deer near Erwood, k) Assiniboine at Kamsack and l) Pipestone Creek.
DRI has provided a prototype for GEOSS of ways in which
results from research projects with finite duration can be
integrated into GEOSS
DRI data legacy system is bringing data sets together to produce an
analysis systems that would allow users to identify the characteristics
of the drought over the region during the 1999-2005 time period.
(Courtesy of
Phil Harder)
Pioneering User Interactions
Partner Assessments of DRI Research Products
User workshops and Table Top Drought Preparedness simulations have
been held with uses groups. In these workshops based on historical
events users were asked:
1. What did you respond to the drought and what information did you use?
2. What could you do with the information that what is currently available?
3. How would your decisions potentially change if you had access to
information on new experimental products (e.g. Evapotranspiration)?
J uly 2002: E vapotranspiration C onditions
(from B rimelow and Hanes iak)
Some typical Mitigation and Response Actions
Drought
A number of states and provinces have formal drought response plans and strategies
in place while others resist the concept. Plans commonly include:

Non-structural approaches
•
Water availability and water supply report
•
Crop insurance, DFA (disaster financial assistance)
•
Water Conservation
•
Education and awareness

Structural approaches
•
Reservoir construction and operation
•
Dugouts, hauling water, GW wells
•
Regional water supply systems
Is this range of responses sufficient for a changing climate?
16
LEAD TIME IN MONTHS
12- month
9-month
6-month
START OF THE
GROWING
3-month
SEASON
PRODUCERS:
- Crop Selection
- Fertilizer/pesticide
decisions
- Cropping and Insurance
Strategies
GOVERNMENT CROP
INSURANCE
AGRI-BUSINESS
WATER RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT
Perspectives on the forecast lead times for a forecasts of
the coming growing season. (Expectations far exceed our
current capabilities.)
Prototype Regional Drought Early Warning
Test Beds
GEO Task WA-06-02d
Co- Leads: USA, WMO, and Canada
Chad McNutt, Roger Pulwarty, Mike Brewer
Explore expanding the concepts of
the North American Drought
Monitor and the drought portal
through prototyping drought
early warning test bed activities
in specific international river basins,
such as on the US-Canada border,
basins in Central America and the
Caribbean, the Mediterranean, and
other drought-sensitive regions.
Pathways to a Global Drought Monitoring Product
The single product
coverage
The mosaic approach
Guidance is needed on the
nature of drought impacts
in all parts of the world
and whether a small set of
global indicators can actually
provide the diversity needed
to fully represent drought
Drought Monitoring Activities Globally
Regional Drought Monitors
National Drought Monitoring
Drought Monitoring Centers (Government/University)
NIDIS Objectives
Creating a drought early warning information system
o Coordinating national drought monitoring and
forecasting systems
o Providing an interactive drought information
clearinghouse and delivery system for
products and services—including an internet
portal and standardized products (databases,
forecasts, Geographic Information Systems
(GIS), maps, etc)
o Designing mechanisms for improving and
incorporating information to support
coordinated preparedness and planning
21
From Pilots to a National DEWS
Californi
a
Prototyping
approaches/methods
Colorado
River
Basin
Southeast
Regional DEWS:
National DEWS
Transferability
Chesapeake Bay; Great
Plains; Tennessee Valley;
Montana; Columbia River
Basin etc.
Discussions are on-going with NIDIS about establishing testbeds
outside the USA in developing countries.
AIP3: Work on Drought Ontologies is being carried out to introduce
Interoperability between drought information systems
EuroGEOSS Query Expansion (C. Fugazza)
EuroGEOSS search semantic
augmentation
www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP
WA-06-02: Droughts, Floods and
Water Resource Management
Future
Forecasting for Droughts and Floods
Impacts from Drought
Prototype Regional Drought Early
warning Test Beds
NIDIS
WMO
DRI
JRC
GFAS/GFFS/GFMP/GDMS/GDEWS
Mountain Water Resources (C) +
Vulnerability of Mtn Regions (EC-09-02)
CL-09-01?
SUMMARY
GEO has generated a substantial amount of interest in monitoring
and responding to extreme events, especially drought. Drought
interests are found in the Water SBA and the Agriculture SBA.
In some cases the GEO discussions would be more effective if
they were underpinned by a better understanding of the physical
processes governing the extreme events and of the strengths and
limitations of the tools used to monitor the phenomena. In the
next work plan (2012-2015) efforts will be made to streamline
the tasks dealing with droughts.