Transcript Slide 1

Drought Update;
What’s in Store for
2012
LCRA Firm Water Customer Meeting
January 26, 2011
Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist
Wednesday’s Rainfall (thru 10 am)
Driest Calendar Year on
Record for Texas
2011 Texas Weather Statistics
• 14.88 inches. Driest calendar year on
record! Previous record was 14.99
inches in 1917.
• Average Temperature 67.2 degrees.
Second hottest year on record.
Hottest year was 67.5 degrees set in
1921.
2011 Weather Records
• Amarillo, Lubbock, Wichita Falls,
Victoria had their driest years on
record.
• Austin, College Station, Midland,
San Angelo and Brownsville had
their hottest years on record
Rainfall Since Oct. 1st
Departure from Normal Since 10/1
Unusual December Jet Stream
Pattern
Current Jet Stream
Typical Patterns Associated
with La Niña
October 4, 2011
Drought Monitor Comparison
Now In the Second Year of La Niña
January 6, 2011
January 23, 2012
La Nina
Dry
Wet
Temperature
Precipitation
NWS Spring into Summer Rainfall Outlook
Drought Outlook through April
Rain Needed to End the
Drought in 3 Months
Rain Needed to End the
Drought in 6 Months
The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane
Season
Colorado State Tropical
Storm Outlook for 2012
THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012
and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal
average net tropical cyclone
(NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 15% chance.
(14-17 Storms)
THC continues in the above-average condition it has
been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops
(NTC ~ 140) – 45% chance. (12-15 Storms)
Take Home Points
• No clear end in sight to the ongoing
drought; it could last well into 2012.
• Conditions could easily get worse before
seeing any improvement.
• Scattered rains will continue winter into
early spring but not heavy enough to
significantly change the drought.
• Intense droughts are hard to break.
• Some models trending toward El Nino this
fall.
Bob Rose
Meteorologist, LCRA
[email protected]
512-473-3350