Transcript Broadband: The Power of Adoption Lee Rainie, Director, Pew Internet Project 10.27.11 Hood River, OR Email: [email protected] Twitter: @Lrainie PewInternet.org.

Broadband: The Power of
Adoption
Lee Rainie, Director, Pew Internet Project
10.27.11
Hood River, OR
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @Lrainie
PewInternet.org
Executive summary
• Broadband adoption has a(n) …
– Broad economic payoff
– Information-access payoff
– Social payoff (probably)
– Civic and participatory payoff
– Health payoffs
• We don’t know if broadband adoption has an …
– Educational payoff (data are mixed and weak)
The spread of broadband
and its impact is tied to
two other revolutions in
digital technology that
have occurred in the past
decade
Revolution #1
Internet and
Broadband
4
Digital Revolution 1
Internet (78%) and Broadband at home (62%)
64%
62%
Home b-band Oregon = 70% (2009)
http://www.ntia.doc.gov/reports/2010/ESA_NTIA_US_Broadband_Adoption_Report_11082010.pdf
Home broadband adoption by
community type
80%
70%
68%
60%
60%
63%
65%
55%
50%
46%
49%
46%
40%
49%
38%
33%
30%
31%
29%
25%
20%
10%
0%
18%
9%
3%
2001
6%
2002
21%
16%
18%
9%
2003
2004
Urban
2005
2006
Suburban
2007
2008
Rural
2009
2010
2011
Demographic factors correlated w/
broadband adoption
Positive correlation
(in order of importance)
Negative correlation
(in order of importance)
Household income of
$75,000 or more per year
Having high school degree
or less
College degree
Senior citizen (age 65+)
Parent with minor child at Rural resident
home
Married or living with
partner
Disabled
Employed full time
African-American
Trends in Home Broadband Adoption
Source: Pew10/5/2010
Internet Project, April 2009 tracking survey
8
Consequences for info ecosystem
Explosion of creators and niches
Networked creators among internet users
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
65% are social networking site users
55% share photos
37% contribute rankings and ratings
33% create content tags
30% share personal creations
26% post comments on sites and blogs
15% have personal website
15% are content remixers
14% are bloggers
13% use Twitter
6% location services – 9% allow location
awareness from social media
Revolution #2
Wireless
Connectivity
11
Digital Revolution 3
Mobile – 84%
Total U.S.
population:
315.5 million
327.6
Cell phone owners – 84% adults
All adults
Ages 18-29
Ages 30-49
Ages 50-64
Age 65+
100%
96%
90%
85%
90%
80%
70%
58%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Urban-84% Suburban-86% Rural-77%
20%
10%
0%
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
35% own “smartphones”
Main internet use device
Which Device Do You Mostly Use to Go Online?
(among smartphone owners)
10/13/2011
15
Revolution #3
Social
Networking
16
The social networking population is
more diverse than you might think
Urban-64%
Suburban-65%
Rural-49%
5x
5x
7x
5x
2/22/2011
17
How do you convince non-users to
adopt broadband?
By the numbers: Who’s not online?
22%
…of American adults are not online
34%
of them have some past or current
contact w/ internet
10%
of them want to use the internet in
the future
61%
of them would need assistance getting
online
Source: Pew Internet Project, May 2010 tracking survey
Trends in Home Broadband Adoption
10/5/2010
20
Relevance & digital literacy are
primary factors for not going online
Source: Pew Internet Project, May 2010 tracking survey
Trends in Home Broadband Adoption
10/5/2010
21
Social media as a “hook” for seniors
• Older adults are among the most resistant, but
once converted they often come to see
broadband as an everyday utility
• Renewed connections can provide a support
network for people nearing retirement or
beginning a new career
• Those with a chronic disease are especially likely
to reach out for support online
• Social media bridges generational gaps and
provides a shared space for interactions
Trends in Home Broadband Adoption
10/5/2010
25
Back to my executive
summary
Community economic payoff
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/internet_ma
tters/pdfs/MGI_internet_matters_full_report.pdf
• 21% of GDP growth last 5 years –
mostly in traditional industries
• 10% productivity gain in medium
and small biz
• $500 per capita GDP growth in 15
years (took Industrial Rev. 50
years to have same effect)
• More than 2.4 jobs created for
every one destroyed
• U.S. consumer “surplus” of $64B
Information access payoff
• Pervasive sense of availability of
information and media
• 30% growth in digital info/year
• 3.5 times more information in a
person’s life now than in 1980
• More time with media and
multitasking 7.5 hrs/day
• Miracle of search – 92% / 59%
• Rise of amateur experts
Social payoff: What? Me isolated?
• Internet users have bigger, more
diverse social networks
• More close ties
• More trusting
• More civic involvement
• More social support
• MySpace – more open to
others’ views … and everybody
else the same
Civic, participatory payoff
• Spread of broadband is
associated with …
– greater civic engagement (but not
civic contentment!)
– focus on government
performance and transparency
– more involvement with schools
– greater patronage of libraries
– SNS and more diverse
involvement
Health outcomes payoff
• Monitoring
• Interventions and
reinforcement
• Skills training – meds/devices
• Emotional and social support
among peers
• “Information prescriptions”
• Amateur research
contributions – online
recruitment, communities and
clinical trials
Health outcomes payoff
Have you or has anyone you
know been HELPED by
following medical advice or
health information found on
the internet?
Have you or has anyone you
know been HARMED by
following medical advice or
health information found on
the internet?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Major help – 10%
Moderate help – 20%
Minor help – 11%
No help – 50%
Don’t know – 4%
41%
Major harm – 1%
Moderate harm – 1%
Minor harm – 1%
No harm – 94%
Don’t know – 3%
3%
Educational attainment payoff?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Different learners and learning spaces
More self directed, less top-down
Better arrayed to capture new information inputs
More reliant on feedback and response
More inclined to collaboration
More open to cross discipline insights and creating
their own “tagged” taxonomies
• More oriented towards people being their own
individual nodes of production
Revolution #4
Post PC, new interfaces, better search
(including images/videos), local
awareness, augmented reality, social
graph
35
Revolution #5
Internet of things,
big data
36
Thank you!
Questions?