Transcript Global Status Report Beirut, Lebanon (December 2005) Yonas Biru ICP Global Office Summary Status Of The Ongoing Consumption Surveys In Five Regions Report On Regional.

Global Status Report
Beirut, Lebanon (December 2005)
Yonas Biru
ICP Global Office
Summary
Status Of The Ongoing Consumption Surveys In Five Regions
Report On Regional Coordinators Meeting To Review Regional
Data From The First Two Quarters
Preparation For Construction, Equipment, General Government,
And Ring Surveys
Technical Advisory Group Recommendations
Progress In Poverty PPP Research And Implementation
Work Plan For The Balance Of The Program
ICP Executive Board Recommendations and Decisions
Data Access And Confidentiality Issues
The Future Of ICP
Status of Consumption Surveys
ICP Asia-Pacific: Twenty three countries in the region are participating.
Twenty two started data collection in the first quarter of 2005. One started
in April 2005.
ICP Africa: Forty one countries are taking part. Three countries started
data collection in January 2005. Some of the countries conducted presurvey in Q2. All 41 countries have been collecting data since July 2005.
ICP CIS: Eleven countries are participating. Price surveys for 2005 began
in January 2005.
ICP Latin America: Ten countries are participating. All have been
collecting data since January 2005.
ICP Western Asia: Eleven countries are taking part. Data collection took
place during the first quarter in nine countries. Two started in Q2
Eurostat/OECD: OECD/Eurostat countries conducts their own comparison
program independent from the ICP and there are 43 countries taking part
Regional Data Review in Washington
Regional coordinators met in Washington in September to review data
from the first and second quarters
The data review workshop was organized to ensure consistency in
data collection and validation across regions and, therefore, to
establish global credibility
The workshop allowed participants to identify areas where each
region needed to make adjustments
One more workshop is planned for February 2006 to review data from
the second and third quarter data collection cycles
For the first workshop three of the five ICP regions submitted data to
the Global Office, one brought electronic files for illustration, and the
fifth region brought paper copies showing limited information
This raised many issues regarding data submission and data access
policies and confidentiality concerns
TAG Recommendations
The ICP Technical Advisory Group (TAG) members met in Washington in
October to discuss pending methodological and procedural issues
Discussion focused on construction, equipment goods, PPP aggregation
methods, preserving ‘fixity’ of regional results, and Poverty PPPs
TAG members reinforced the idea that when linking regional PPP to
generate global PPPs, regional ‘fixity’ for PPPs and volume indices at all
levels of aggregation should be preserved
Members discussed a number of aggregation methods, including EKS and
GK methods that have been used widely in the past. After extensive
discussions TAG recommended to use EKS
Meanwhile TAG acknowledged the importance of an alternative additive
index and recommended to commission a paper on an alternative additive
index
A new poverty PPP estimation procedure was presented by Professor
Angus Deaton and endorsed by the TAG
Preparation for non-consumption items
Data collection for construction, equipment goods, general government
and Ring surveys is scheduled for the first two quarters of 2006
Specifications for non-consumption items have been prepared and
disseminated
Data collection forms and survey guidelines are being finalized at the
Global Office and will be ready for dissemination by December 20
A global list containing 950 consumption specifications was prepared as a
result of sustained cooperation between the GO, RO, and ring countries
A ring catalogue including specifications and the corresponding images is
being printed
For construction and government services a global list will be used
For equipment goods global SPD/PS templates were prepared and sent to
regions. Asia has made some adjustments to adopt the templates to its
market situations
Progress in Poverty PPP work
The current ICP aims to improve the quality of poverty PPPs that are used
widely for measuring poverty incidences and monitoring progress towards
meeting the MDGs
A Poverty Advisory Group (PAG) has been established
New procedure has been proposed by the PAG and endorsed by the TAG
Research conducted independently by three PAG members in Asia, Latin
America & Africa resulted in a new poverty PPP calculation method
Effort is underway at to establish correspondence between expenditure
estimates from household surveys and the standard 90 plus household
consumption classifications of the ICP
The plan is to calculate poverty PPPs utilizing price data from the ICP in
conjunction with expenditure weights from household survey sources
This project is funded exclusively by the World Bank and managed
separately to avoid creating additional burden on the ICP
Overview of ICP Work plan
ICP Executive Board
Recommendations and Decisions
ICP Executive Board
The Executive Board is the decision-making and strategic body of ICP
It is responsible for ensuring that the Program is completed on time,
within budget and that it provides high quality PPP data
The Board consists of 16 members
Dennis Trewin, Chair (ABS)
Ifzal Ali (ADB)
Prem Singh Rana (India)
Huang Langui (China)
Paul Cheung (UNSD)
Rob Edwards (IMF)
Shaida Badiee (WB)
Enrico Giovannini (OECD)
Henok Kifle (AfDB)
Ben Kiregyera (Uganda)
Koffi Ngussan (ENSEA)
Luis Machinea (ECLAC)
Jacob Ryten (Canada)
Valdimir Sokolin (Russia)
Mervat Tallawy(ESCWA)
David Fenwick (Gr.Briton)
ICP Executive Board Decisions
The Executive Board met in Washington on October 26 to review the
status of the program and discussed policy related issues
The Board endorsed a set of basic requirements established by the Global
Office and regional coordinators regarding quality assurance procedures
that countries must meet to be included in the calculation of 2005 PPPs
Issues related to data access and data confidentiality were discussed and
the GO was instructed to form a special Data Access Working Group
The Woking Group will be charged to prepare recommendations for the
Board’s review and approval
The Board also discussed and approved the plan to publish PPPs in stages
beginning with total household consumption followed by the full GDP.
The Board recommended that the World Bank serve as custodian of the
global database
ICP Board Decisions (cont’d)
The Board expressed broad agreement that minimum requirements should
be met for inclusion in the publication of the results. The requirements
include:
National annual prices and diagnostic parameters based on at least two data
collections cycles are required except where a single collection (e.g.
housing) is suitable
Collection can be limited to major cities if data are available to extrapolate
prices to national levels
Average prices should reflect purchases across all types of outlets to provide
representative national prices to the extent possible
National level expenditure weights are required for the 155 basic headings
Countries need to be engaged in the regional data review process
Data Access and Confidentiality
It is requested that all participating countries provide access to
their quarterly average price data to the Global Office
This is the same data that they provide to their regional
coordinators for regional data validation exercise
While acknowledging that this was not anticipated when the
original memorandum of understanding was drawn, the Board
stressed that participating countries should show flexibility in the
interest of establishing global credibility to the program and allow
access to their quarterly data
The Board stressed that the quarterly data should be used strictly
for data review purposes
The GO will ensure that only GO experts will have access to the
data and once data validation is done the data will be purged
Data Access and Confidentiality
The other issue regarding data access to the global office involves
providing the GO with final national annual average price estimates
and the required diagnostic parameters, including coefficient of
variation, number of observation, and representativity
This is critical to calculate global PPPs using different aggregation
methodologies
The data will be part of the global data base
The third issue regarding data availability and confidentiality relates
to at what level data should be published and what part of the
unpublished data should be made available to the research
community upon request
This is an issue that the proposed Data Access and Confidentiality
Working Group will consider and provide recommendation for the
consideration of the Executive Board
The Future of ICP
The Future of ICP
Many countries have expressed strong interest in participating in
future rounds and have recommended that the next round should be
organized without long delay
There is a general consensus that the next round would benefit from
the experienced gained in this round and all efforts must be made to
build on the momentum established
The Executive Board recommended that an independent evaluation
should be conducted before the next round is launched
It is important that all the quality assurance procedures are fully
implemented in this round to establish the credibility and the
continuity of the program
The future of ICP depends on the support and the commitment of
regional implementation agencies and participating countries