Transcript Making Sense of Our Brave New World 5 Trends in Consumer Technologies Devices DIY Content Networks Software Platforms Tim Herbert Sr.

Making Sense of Our Brave New World
5 Trends in Consumer Technologies
Devices
DIY Content
Networks
Software
Platforms
Tim Herbert
Sr. Director, Market Research
Consumer Electronics Association
[email protected]
Distribution
Packaged Content
Services
DRM
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Point A
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Points B, C, D…
5 Trends to Watch
1
It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Drives Everything
Faster, smaller, clearer, greater capacity, cheaper, etc.
2
More Displays, More Options
Number of screens in the home/out of the home continues to expand
3
Enriched Connections
Networks (home, cloud, sneaker, or social) offer greater utility
4
Distribution Redefined
New methods, ideas and models better connect consumers & content
5
Empowerment | Personalization Accelerates
Devices, tools, and information further empower consumers to work
and be entertained when, where and how they want, while allowing
companies to better target their audiences
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
1
“It Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon
For a number of reasons, it is tough
to predict exactly what products
and services will emerge, but it is
safe to assume there will be plenty
of product improvements and
innovations at the margin.
As usual, consumer electronics products will get smaller, faster, clearer,
lighter, more efficient, increased capacity, longer runtime, higher
resolution, more reliable and larger screens, while getting less
expensive.
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A Brief History of Time
Year when product reached ~25% household penetration
2007
2001
1995
1990
1991
1968
1930
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2006
25 CE products
per household
9.7 CE products
per household
2
More Displays, More Options
Desktop PC
66%
Digital camera
43%
Portable MP3/DM player
10%
1% all | 21% DM
39%
Notebook PC
37%
12%
Portable DVD player
32%
5%
Portable gaming device
31%
28%
Portable navigation
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32%
11%
Smartphones
Digital photo frame
-3%
62%
Digital TV
8%
2%
32%
45%
5%
Google
Gas Pump
Display?
A Closer Look at Television
Digital Displays | Millions of units
36.1
37.4
38.2
33.6
30.5
HDTV
penetration
rate ~32%
23.5
11.4
8.3
1.5
2.5
2001
2002
LCD = 18.5
million units
shipped in ‘07
4.1
2003
2004
2005
2006 2007e 2008p 2009p 2010p 2011p
46% decline in prices
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e – estimated, p - projected
3
Enriched Connections
Broadband = 51%,
but many newbies
Home Theater = 26%
30% have a
wired or
wireless home
network
• Wide area connections
(WiMax, WiFi/Hotspots, Cell,
Broadband, SlingMedia)
• Local area connections (Ethernet,
WiFi, HDMI)
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• Personal networks
(RF, Bluetooth, OE integration)
• Connecting services
(VOIP, vlogs, blogs, social networks)
Desired Activities Using Home TV
Watch DVDs
91%
Watch TV Programs
88%
Watch Content from DVR
View Digital Video Files
47%
Play Video Games
46%
View Digital Photos
29%
Access the Internet
29%
Explore
20% Connect
Email
Video Conferencing
17%
Access PC Documents
16%
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Personalize
Interact
44% Share
Listen to PC Audio
Other
Control
54%
1%
Video Content Watched on a PC
News
49%
Weather
39%
Music videos
36%
Movies
33%
Video games
28%
TV shows
21%
Sports
19%
Home movies
Other
18%
6%
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
4
Distribution Redefined
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Sources of PC Video
Internet streams
YouTube: 206 million unique visitors
DVD
Digital video files
47%
2.9 billion downloads
through iTunes
33%
26%
Online games
Disc based games
Other
70%
19%
3%
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• 10% have ripped DVD
content
– Including home videos
• 16% have burned digital
videos to DVD
Seeking a Change?
Content Distribution Method
Current
Preferred
Difference
Physically move content
50%
25%
-25%
Centrally stored content
5%
23%
18%
Place shifting device
5%
13%
8%
10%
5%
-5%
9%
5%
-4%
21%
4%
-17%
Remotely stored content
NA
1%
NA
Other
2%
1%
-1%
None
31%
24%
-7%
Movie copies of content
Use network
Physically move device
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Or, Does Physical Media Still Appeal?
Reasons for Preferring Physical CDs or DVDs
68%
Minimal hassle factor
52%
Physical copy easier to
share with friends/family
37%
Afraid something may
happen to the digital file
37%
Like in-person
shopping experience
Fewer restrictions with
physical media
Like to display collection of
DVDs or CDs
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49%
36%
27%
34%
33%
29%
28%
27%
CDs
DVDs
Today, Video Entertainment = Home
Location
Home
Friends/Families Home
Movie Theater
Work
In Car
Public Transportation
School
At the Gym
Walking Around
Other
Total
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Percent of
Users
97%
31%
30%
12%
9%
8%
4%
4%
3%
1%
199%
Percent of
Time
75%
8%
6%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
100%
Tomorrow, Entertainment = Home + X?
• 34% say portability of content important/very
important
• 27% interested/very interested in media
server for in-home distribution
• 86% say picture quality important/very
important; 79% say price; 73% say ease of
accessing
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5
Empowerment | Personalization
DVR Penetration
25%
10%
Mid-year
2005
Mid-year
2007
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Perception of Companies That
Advertise in High Definition
34%
Positive
58%
Neutral
Negative
8%
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
30% of HDTV owner sports fans agree
or strongly agree with the statement
“companies that advertise in highdefinition are more tech savvy.”
5 Trends to Watch
1
It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Drives Everything
Faster, smaller, clearer, greater capacity, cheaper, etc.
2
More Displays, More Options
Number of screens in the home/out of the home continues to expand
3
Enriched Connections
Networks (home, cloud, sneaker, or social) offer greater utility
4
Distribution Redefined
New methods, ideas and models better connect consumers & content
5
Empowerment | Personalization Accelerates
Devices, tools, and information further empower consumers to work
and be entertained when, where and how they want, while allowing
companies to better target their audiences
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Thank You
Tim Herbert
Sr. Director, Market Research
Consumer Electronics Association
[email protected]
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association