Global Forum on Trade Statistics Measuring Global Trade – Do We Have the Right Numbers? Geneva Switzerland 2-4 February, 2011 Aaron Sydor Office of the.
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Transcript Global Forum on Trade Statistics Measuring Global Trade – Do We Have the Right Numbers? Geneva Switzerland 2-4 February, 2011 Aaron Sydor Office of the.
Global Forum on Trade Statistics
Measuring Global Trade – Do We Have the Right Numbers?
Geneva Switzerland
2-4 February, 2011
Aaron Sydor
Office of the Chief Economist
Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada
1
Overview
Trends in policy analysis and research…what’s
new?
• But not all gaps are due to new developments.
A user’s perspective of data gaps:
• Examples of policy analysis and research; and
• Notable data gaps.
2
Trends in Policy Analysis and
Research
Rising importance of non-OECD countries
• Strengthening of North-South and South-South linkages
Global value chains
• A ‘global commerce’ approach
• Increased emphasis on operations of multinationals;
offshoring/outsourcing
• International fragmentation of all stages of the value chain
Firm-level analysis
Link between real and financial flows
3
Strategy
Example of policy
question or analysis
Data gaps
4
Goods Trade
Share of ‘Others’ in Canadian
Goods Trade
16 Percent
Non-OECD countries poorly
represented in BOP data:
– Little price information by
product and destination;
14
– BOP categories do not match
industries; and,
12
– Terms of trade and prices
increasingly important.
10
8
6
Merchandise (customs based
data):
– Link to tariffs; and,
99
'0
0
'0
1
'0
2
'0
3
'0
4
'0
5
'0
6
'0
7
'0
8
'0
9
97
98
95
96
4
– Access to international data…
make Comtrade free!
Data: Statistics Canada
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, DFAIT
5
FDI and Services Trade
Top Ten Destinations for Canadian
FDI and Service Exports
Destination and source for FDI
does not match well with real
economic activity:
Country
Share
Country
Share
U.S.
44.0%
U.S.
53.7%
– First destination and tax havens;
U.K.
11.0%
U.K.
6.5%
Barbados
6.9%
Germany
2.7%
– Important for BITs and service
delivery; and,
Ireland
3.8%
France
2.7%
– Tracking GVCs.
Cayman
Islands
3.3%
Switzerla
nd
2.3%
Bermuda
3.1%
Bermuda
2.1%
France
2.7%
Japan
1.8%
Australia
2.2%
China
1.6%
Hungary
2.1%
Barbados
1.5%
Bahamas
2.0%
HK, China
1.4%
Data: Statistics Canada; FDI 2009, services 2008.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, DFAIT
Services – measurement, lack of
detail on modes, lack of country
detail, BOP does not match
industry categories;
– Increasingly important in
knowledge-based economies;
and,
– Trade negotiations.
6
A Global Value Chain
Perspective
U.S. Content of Canadian
Manufacturing Exports
Trans. Eqt.
Plastics and Rubber
Electrical Eqt.
Using I/O tables to measure
GVCs:
– Proportionality in use and
source.
Computer and Electronic
Chemical
Machinery
Misc. Manu.
Other gaps:
Paper
– End-use classification systems
(BEC);
Fab. Metal
Primary Metal
Food
Furniture
– Intra-firm trade; and
Printing
Non-Metallic Mineral
– Value-added measures of trade.
Wood Product
Clothing
Petroleum & Coal
0
10
20
30
40
50
Percent
Data: Statistics Canada, 2004
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, DFAIT
7
A Global Value Chain
Perspective, cont…
Canada’s Foreign Affiliate Sales
and Employees by Region
2007 ($)
Total sales
100.0
238,152
52.0
U.K.
32,838
7.2
Other EU
55,805
12.2
Other OECD
38,556
8.4
Other
93,066
20.3
Share
(%)
2007 (#)
Total employees
United States
U.K.
Other EU
Other OECD
Other
– For example, R&D, legal,
accounting, etc to the product or
industry that they are
contributing to.
Operations of foreign MNES:
– Country detail;
1,135
100.0
599
52.8
68
6.0
161
14.2
83
7.3
224
19.
Data: Statistics Canada
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, DFAIT
The location of activities:
– Linking activities to products or
performing industry;
Share (%)
458,417
United States
– Types of activities in what
industries; and,
– Linkages back to domestic
economy.
8
Firm-level Data
The Average Value of Exports per
Firm After Initial Entry
Tracking the dynamics of
individual exports and importers
and by size groups.
Better links international
performance to domestic policy
agenda, for example productivity.
$ ‘000s
– Linking exporter registry data
(from customs documents) to
other firm characteristics;
– Link between exporter and
importer registries…a form of I/O
structure;
– Moving beyond customs data;
and
Data: Statistics Canada
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, DFAIT
– Access.
9
References
Fenstra et al “Report on the State of Available Data for the Study of International Trade and Foreign
Direct Investment”, NBER, 2010.
Gereffi and Sturgeon “The Challenge of Global Value Chains: Why Integrative Trade Requires New
Thinking and New Data”, Industry Canada, 2008.
General Accounting Office “Current Government Data Provide Limited Insight into Offshoring of
Services” 2004.
Maurer and Degain “Globalization and trade flows: what you see is not what you get!”, WTO, 2010.
Nordas “International production sharing: a case for a coherent policy framework”, WTO, 2005.
Ridgeway “Data Issues on Integrative Trade between Canada and the US: Measurement Issues for
Supply Chains, Trade Policy Research, 2006.
______ “Canada’s Annual Report on The State of Trade”, Foreign Affairs and International Trade
Canada.
10