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Achieving Long-term Competitive Advantage Presented to: Regional Border Economic Development Forum San Diego, CA Lorna H. Wallace, Research Fellow Regional Economics (310) 570 4619 www.milkeninstitute.org February 24, 2006 Determinants of Inbound Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 1. Market Access 2. Labor – availability and quality (not simply low labor costs) 3. Infrastructure 4. Regulatory Environment 5. Incentives 6. Information Availability 7. Quality of Life 8. Clusters of Firm Activities Foreign Direct Investment in the U.S. Top 10 States by Employment, 2003 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 State California New York Texas Illinois Florida Pennsylvania New Jersey Ohio Michigan North Carolina Total Employment (Ths.) 561.0 382.6 339.3 254.9 248.9 227.7 223.2 208.6 205.0 204.6 5,253.0 % of U.S. Total 10.68 7.28 6.46 4.85 4.74 4.33 4.25 3.97 3.90 3.89 100 Foreign Direct Investment in California Employment, 1999-2003 Thousands of Employees Percent Change, Year Ago 760 Employment (L) Percent Change (R) 740 20 15 720 10 700 5 680 0 660 640 -5 620 -10 2000 1999 2002 2001 2003 Origin of FDI – Baja California Japan, 5% U.K., 2% U.S., 88% Korea, 1% Spain, 1% Cayman Islands, 1% Other, 2% California Exports to Mexico 1997-2003 US$ Billions 18 Percent Change, Year Ago 30 CA Exports to Mexico (L) Percent Change (R) 16 20 14 10 12 0 10 -10 1998 1997 2000 1999 2002 2001 2004 2003 California Exports to Top 10 Countries Ranked by 2004 Value, US$ Billions Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country Mexico Japan Canada China Korea (ROK) Taiwan U.K. Hong Kong Singapore Netherlands All Others California Total 2003 14.9 11.8 11.2 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.4 4.2 3.4 3.4 26.1 94.0 Percent Share of CA Share of CA Change Exports Exports 2004 2003-04 2003 2004 17.2 15.9 15.8 15.7 13.3 13.3 12.5 12.1 12.1 7.8 11.9 11.0 6.8 25.2 5.8 6.2 5.9 22.3 5.1 5.4 5.4 20.7 4.7 4.9 5.2 19.4 4.6 4.7 5.1 22.5 4.4 4.7 4.2 23.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 11.8 3.6 3.5 30.9 18.4 27.7 28.1 110.0 17.0 100.0 100.0 Most Attractive Global Business Locations Responses from Multinational Enterprise Executives 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. China (87%) India (51%) United States (51%) Russian Federation (33%) Brazil (20%) Mexico (16%) Germany (13%) United Kingdom (13%) Thailand (11%) 10. Canada (7%) Internationalization of R&D •In 1993, Motorola established the 1st foreign-owned R&D lab in China •The Indian R&D activities of General Electric employs some 2,400 workers •In the Baja California Electronics and Automotive Manufacturing Cluster •More than 25% of the plants surveyed were engaged in R&D •1/5th did product design •More than 1/10th had developed a patent • More than 1/3rd had ISO 9002 Certification In Conclusion In conclusion, the issue of competitiveness is very much “en vogue.” Is northern Mexico/southern California a desirable global platform? How does the Border Region measure up re: 8 Determinants of fdi? Isabela Project – innovative sources of financing for small business owners. Increasingly economic development means the ability to attract and retain high-quality jobs in high-tech growth industries – all of which demand welltrained human capital.