Transcript STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Trade in Goods and services A report of differences in two OECD datasets (Balance of payments and Annual National Accounts) OECD statistics.

STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Trade in Goods and
services
A report of differences in
two OECD datasets
(Balance of payments
and Annual National
Accounts)
OECD statistics directorate
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Introduction
• Eurostat/European Central bank Task
force has investigated conceptual and
actual differences between b.o.p statistics
and the Rest of the World account.
• Generally less understanding of
differences between b.o.p. and national
accounts series than goods in b.o.p. and
Foreign trade.
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
The OECD comparison
• 10 annual series in national currency and current price
were extracted from OECD MEI database and ANA
database. (mid may 2007)
• Examination of the actual differences between the series
in SNA and the series in BOP datasets (i.e. series x
(SNA) in year t – series x (BOP)) in year t
• Series compared: Goods, Services, Income, Transfers,
Capital.
• Aim: Investigate if possible to reproduce the conclusions
drawn by Eurostat noting some EU peculiarities and
adding some OECD specific remarks.
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Preliminary remarks
• Most conceptual differences are expected
to disappear after the current update on
the international statistical manuals (1993
SNA and BPM5)
• Specific compilation practices have
impact on consistency (including revision
practices)
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Main conclusions 1/2
• For most countries, trade in goods series have
the best match in relative terms where most
national mean differences were less than one
percent between SNA and BOP.
• The second best match was for trade in services
where most national mean differences were less
than three percent.
• The third best match was for income where most
national mean differences were less than ten
percent.
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Main conclusions 2/2
• Current transfers and capital account
usually poorly match.
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
TF conclusions regarding
differences in trade in goods
• Transit trade: The TF advises to register the
gap between imports and export in some entities
involved in transit trade to be recognized
preferably as a service in b.o.p. statistics.
• Repairs: Repairs should be recorded net both in
b.o.p. and in the SNA.
• Reclassifications between goods and
services: This relates to certain types of goods
recorded in external trade statistics which are
reclassified to service in RoW by some countries
while they are retained in goods in b.o.p.
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
OECD remarks from summary table
on goods comparison 1/2
• For exports of goods : Zero or negligible mean %
differences [1996-2005] for Canada, Czech Republic,
Finland, Iceland, Japan and UK. The largest mean %
differences were for Greece +25.5%, Turkey – 13.2%,
and Portugal +5.8%. The remaining countries had mean
% differences of below 4% with a slight majority having a
positive sign.
• For Imports of goods, there was zero or negligible mean
% differences for Canada, Iceland, United Kingdom. The
largest mean % differences are found for Greece +
17.7%, Ireland + 4.87%, Australia + 3.85% and Turkey +
3.42%
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
OECD remarks from summary table
on goods comparison 2/2
• Greece: The larger differences appearing may
be explained by recent OECD SNA revision that
has not yet been reflected in the OECD b.o.p.
• Regarding Turkey, the difference due to the
country following SNA 68 for NA data.
• The differences shown for the Netherlands,
(1.92% for credits; 0.94% for debits) can be
according to the TF paper related to transit
trade.
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
TF conclusions regarding
differences in trade in services
• Incidence of methodological differences higher than for
goods. Differences are principally linked to the treatment
of construction services and FISIM.
• On Construction: The TF noted on Construction that
BOP is in line with SNA 93 not with ESA 95.
• On FISIM: At present FISIM is identified in national
accounts, as recommended by ESA 95 and SNA 93, and
not in BOP. Therefore a methodological difference exists
and FISIM are classified under (financial) services in the
RoW account, while they are indistinctly recorded under
investment income in BOP.
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
OECD remarks from summary table
on services comparison
• Expected B.o.p. services figures to be smaller than NA
figures (non inclusion of FISIM). The case for 12
countries, otherwise not clear.
• So no obvious link can be drawn from the absence of
FISIM in b.o.p. service data and the relative size of the
figures compared to SNA figures.
• Zero or negligible mean % differences for the United
Kingdom which has totally integrated the b.o.p. and SNA
processes. FISIM are also already integrated into b.o.p.
data.
• For Exports, the largest mean % differences appear for
Japan -27.98%, Portugal -22.88%, Austria, -15.82%
Luxembourg +11.34% and the Netherlands+11.07%.
• For imports, they were shown for Austria -36.06%, Japan
-16.54%, the Netherlands +13.84%, Luxembourg
+13.80%.
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
TF conclusions regarding
differences in trade in income
• Regarding Income from collective
investment institutions (CIIS), the TF
notes that the main methodological
difference between BPM5/SNA93 and
ESA 95 is due to the treatment of
undistributed earnings. While ESA 95
requires the recording of distributed and
retained earnings, BPM5 and SNA 93 only
provide for the recording of distributed
earnings.
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
OECD remarks from summary table
on income comparison
• No striking influence of FISIM on the income
data
• zero or negligible mean % differences for United
Kingdom (for exports). Norway also shows a
perfect match since 1999.
• For Exports, the largest mean % differences
were for Turkey +65.82%, the Netherlands
+52.99%, Slovakia +46.36% and Canada 30.50%.
• For Imports, they were shown for the
Netherlands +53.41%, Greece +26.52%, Japan
+23.82% and Canada -17.49%.
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
TF conclusions regarding
differences in transfers
Taxes on income and wealth: The treatment of
tax refunds differs between BPM5 and ESA 95.
• BPM5 states that current taxes on income and
wealth should be recorded on the credit side,
whereas refunds of taxes are included in the
debit side.
• ESA 95 states that the total value of taxes
should be reduced by the amount of any rebates
or refund (i.e. net recording).
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
OECD remarks from summary table
on transfers comparison
• The amounts are much smaller than for the 3
other items. However the differences can still be
very large
• There was zero or negligible mean %
differences for Canada only. Relatively close
match for Korea, Mexico, Norway and Poland.
• For Exports, the largest mean % differences
were for Greece -98.37% and Spain -79.69%
• For Imports, they were shown for Spain -44.46%
and Switzerland +41.34%.
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
OECD Remarks on Capital series
• Data poorly correspond.
• Zero or negligible mean % differences for
Canada.
• The largest differences in exports were
shown for Slovakia -449% and Sweden 127.57% and for imports were shown for
the Czech republic -326.06% and Ireland 106.87%
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Questions?
• Delegates are asked if such comparisons
are deemed useful and if more of them
should be done (on which series ) ?
• Also, should the same comparison be
done in say 2 years in order to assess if
the discrepancies between National
Accounts and balance of payments series
are growing or diminishing ?