Transcript ROUNDWOOD MARKETS Secretariat introduction by Mr. Volker Sasse UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-ninth session Geneva, 2-5 October 2001

ROUNDWOOD MARKETS
Secretariat introduction by Mr. Volker Sasse
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
Contents of presentation
• Overview of findings in “Forest Products
Annual Market Review 2000-2001”
• Removal forecasts for 2001 and 2002
- EU/EFTA
- Other Europe (CEEC)
- CIS
- North America
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
Roundwood market framework
• Further stabilisation of the policy framework
in CEEC and CIS (increasing production,
temporary low consumption)
• Uncertainties about future impacts from
climate change (storm damages)
• Increasing demand in social and environmental
benefits from forestry land use
• More restrictive agriculture policy, enlargement
of forestry land use
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
Forest Products Annual Market
Review 2000-2001 (1-3)
 Roundwood was in oversupply in Europe in 2000 following the
extensive windthrow from the December 1999 storms,
which mainly affected France, Switzerland, Denmark and
Germany.
 Among other effects the storm damage led to: an
acceleration of production and exports by 12% and 50%
respectively, a 30% drop in prices, and a 19% increase in
net imports.
 Despite the surplus windthrow volumes in 2000 in
western Europe, exports of wood raw material to western
Europe from CIS as well as from central and eastern
European UNECE
countries
increased
rapidly by 13% and 8%
TIMBER
COMMITTEE
respectively.
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
Forest Products Annual Market
Review 2000-2001 (4-6)
 A change in traditional roundwood trade flows is
occurring in the UNECE region as evidenced by a
significant decrease in Germany's net trade with countries
of the EU/EFTA subregion owing to a sharp increase in
roundwood imports from the CIS since 1995.
 Roundwood production and consumption in the CIS
increased significantly, by nearly 60% from 1998, although
it had decreased annually since the beginning of market
reforms.
 Incomes from expansion of roundwood exports from CIS
and “Other Europe” countries are increasingly used to
improve obsolete machinery leading to increased
productivity and medium-term domestic purchasing
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
power.
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
Forest Products Annual Market
Review 2000-2001 (7-9)
 While the United States lost some market share in
Japan, industrial roundwood trade between the United
States and Canada is increasing.
 Production and consumption of roundwood in the
UNECE region both rose almost 5% in 2000, to reach 1.3
billion m3 in 2000, mainly because of the storm damages in
Europe; however, removals remain still well below the
supply potential of the forests.
 Roundwood exports and imports both increased in
UNECE region in 2000 by roughly 18%, while net exports
expanded same time by 22%.
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
Industrial Roundwood – Removals
1996 = 100
150
140
133
130
101
120
110
242
601
100
90
80
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
CIS
EU/EFTA
North America
Other Europe
Line 5
Line 6
Line
7
Line 8
UNECE
TIMBER
COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
million m
3
Industrial Roundwood – Net Trade
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
CIS
EU/EFTA
North America
Other Europe
Line 5
Line 6
Line 7
Line 8
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
Major industrial roundwood trade flows,
in the UNECE region, 1996-1999
200
195
195
Index (1996=100)
180
160
165
around 90 million m3
140
130
120
100
around 110 million m3
80
69
60
40
1996
1997
1998
CIS to EU/EFTA (12 %)
EU/EFTA to EU/EFTA (9.3 %)
Other Europe
to EU/EFTA (8.5 %)
UNECE TIMBER
COMMITTEE
CIS to non-UNECE (10.4 %)
Fifty-ninth session
North America to non- UNECE (8.1 %)
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
1999
German roundwood net trade
(1,000 m3)
EU/EFTA
Other Europe
CIS
Non-UNECE
TOTAL
1995
2,926
-282
-14
39
2,669
1996
1,701
-336
-39
44
1,369
1997
2,131
-245
-63
41
1,863
1998
2,074
-101
-136
14
1,850
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
1999
1,582
-216
-522
-4
840
2000
1,142
74
-623
15
609
Removals, Consumption and
Net trade in Russia, million m3
180.0
net trade 40.0
removals
160.0
140.0
35.0
consumption
30.0
120.0
25.0
100.0
20.0
80.0
15.0
60.0
40.0
10.0
20.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
Removals, Consumption and
Net trade in Poland, million m3
30.0
1.5
25.0
1.0
20.0
0.5
removals
15.0
consumption
net trade
0.0
10.0
-0.5
5.0
0.0
-1.0
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
Removals, Consumption and
Net trade in Hungary, million m3
4.0
1.0
removals
0.8
3.5
0.6
consumption
3.0
0.4
2.5
net trade
2.0
0.2
0.0
02
20
01
00
20
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
19
92
19
19
19
19
19
91
-0.4
90
1.0
89
-0.2
88
1.5
Industrial Roundwood –
Consumption
130
91
1996 = 100
120
93
280
110
598
100
90
80
70
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
CIS
EU/EFTA
North America
Other Europe
Line 5
Line 6
Line
7
Line 8
UNECE
TIMBER
COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001
ROUNDWOOD MARKETS
by Mr. Yves Costrel de Corainville,
Délégué Général, Fédération National du Bois
Incidence of December 1999 storms on timber
markets and forest products
• From French example/case – first country affected by
the catastrophe
• Difficulties occurred with timber harvesting
• Reactions of timber sector
• State of forests and timber markets at present
• Instructions/Recommendations for the future
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
Geneva, 2-5 October 2001