Transcript PAPER, PAPERBOARD AND WOOD PULP • Secretariat introduction by Mr. Kit Prins UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-ninth session 2-5 October 2001

PAPER, PAPERBOARD
AND WOOD PULP
• Secretariat introduction by Mr. Kit Prins
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001
CONTENTS OF
PRESENTATION
• Overview of Forest Products Annual
Market Review, 2000-2001 findings
• Pulp and paper forecasts for 2001 and
2002
- Europe
- North America
- Russian Federation
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001
Forest Products Annual Market
Review, 2000-2001 findings (1 of 3)
 Recovery 1999 and 2000, recent
reversal.
 Record levels of European output in
2000, ($/Euro).
 Prices climbed early 1999 into 2000,
but they fell during the first half of 2001.
 Profitability peaks in 2000 gradually
eroded, at first in North America and
then in Europe.
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001
Forest Products Annual Market
Review, 2000-2001 findings (2 of 3)
 Monthly paper and paperboard
purchases declined in the United States
from early 2000 into the first quarter of
2001,

US paper industry profits fell from
the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter
of 2001, with weak exports, declining
domestic purchases, and higher energy
costs.
 Globally, net capacity growth subdued.
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001
Forest Products Annual Market
Review, 2000-2001 findings (3 of 3)

A weakening of growth in Asian
economies reduced pressures on global
fibre supplies, further contributing to
weakness in pricing.

Russia’s pulp and paper sector
experienced a significant recovery in
1999 and 2000, ( devalued rouble,
growing domestic and export demand).
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001
The surging U.S. trade deficit of recent years
was boosted by a strong U.S. dollar . . .
130
40
35
125
30
Dollar Index
25
115
20
110
15
105
10
100
5
95
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
JP Morgan Trade-Weighted Dollar Index
U.S. Trade Deficit on Current Accounts
Trade Deficit ($ Billions)
120
The U.S. trade deficit widened also for paper and
paperboard commodities . . .
17
16
Millions of m.t.
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
Imports
2001(p)
2000
1999
1998
1997
Exports
The U.S. trade deficit and recent slowdown in the overall
economy have led to a real decline in U.S. paper and
paperboard production after years of growth . . .
2001(e)
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
1992
Million m.t.
U.S. Paper and Paperboard Production
(e) = preliminary estimate
Industry consolidation has focused on balancing
supply with demand via restrained capacity growth
(growth has receded to less than 1% per year) . . .
U.S. Paper and Paperboard Capacity Growth
3000
2000
Annual
Capacity
Growth
(AF&PA)
1500
1000
2003(e)
2002(e)
2001(e)
2000(e)
1999
1998
1997
0
1996
500
1995
Thousand m.t.
2500
(e) = preliminary estimates
Europe: Wood Pulp
50 000
42 000
38 000
34 000
Production
P-F
2-5 October 2001
02
Consumption
C-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
30 000
19
1000 mt
46 000
Europe: Wood Pulp
20 000
12 000
8 000
4 000
Imports
M-F
Exports
X-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
0
19
1000 mt
16 000
North America: Wood Pulp
100 000
80 000
70 000
Production
P-F
2-5 October 2001
02
Consumption
C-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
60 000
19
1000 mt
90 000
North America: Wood Pulp
20 000
12 000
8 000
4 000
Imports
M-F
Exports
X-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
0
19
1000 mt
16 000
Russian Federation: Wood Pulp
10 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
Production
P-F
2-5 October 2001
02
Consumption
C-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
0
19
1000 mt
8 000
Russian Federation: Wood Pulp
3 000
1 000
Exports
X-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
0
19
1000 mt
2 000
Production
P-F
2-5 October 2001
02
Consumption
C-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
100 000
95 000
90 000
85 000
80 000
75 000
70 000
65 000
60 000
19
1000 mt
Europe: Paper and Paperboard
Europe: Paper and Paperboard
60 000
55 000
45 000
40 000
35 000
Imports
M-F
Exports
X-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
30 000
19
1000 mt
50 000
North America: Paper and
Paperboard
110 000
90 000
Production
P-F
2-5 October 2001
02
Consumption
C-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
80 000
19
1000 mt
100 000
North America: Paper and
Paperboard
30 000
20 000
15 000
Imports
M-F
Exports
X-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
10 000
19
1000 mt
25 000
Russian Federation: Paper and
Paperboard
10 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
Production
P-F
2-5 October 2001
02
Consumption
C-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
0
19
1000 mt
8 000
Russian Federation: Paper and
Paperboard
3000
2500
1500
1000
500
Imports
M-F
Exports
X-F
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
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96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
0
19
1000 mt
2000
Next Paper, Paperboard and
Wood Pulp Presentation
• Prof. Eduard L. Akim, St. Petersburg State
Technological University, All-Russian
Research Institute of Pulp and Paper Industry
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE
Fifty-ninth session
2-5 October 2001