Transcript Utility Perspectives on Electrification of the Vehicle Knut Simonsen Sr. Vice President, Strategy and M&A President, Energy Ventures November 15, 2009

Utility Perspectives on
Electrification of the Vehicle
Knut Simonsen
Sr. Vice President, Strategy and M&A
President, Energy Ventures
November 15, 2009
Plug-in EV’s nothing new!
1900s – 2x EVs
compared to ICE
Detroit was the
first American
city to use
electric taxi cabs
Note curb-side
charging port
1914 Detroit
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Electric drive technologies
Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV)
Today
Internal Combustion
Engine (ICE)
Hybrid Electric Vehicle
(HEV)
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
Vehicle (PHEV)
Extended Range Electric
Vehicle (EREV)
Battery Electric Vehicle
(BEV)
Differential
Differential
Differential
Motor
Motor
Mechanical
Coupling
Mechanical
Coupling
Transmission
Engine
Batteries
Transmission
Motor
Batteries
Motor
Transmission
Generator
Batteries
Engine
Engine
Miles
Electric only:
Engine
Batteries
10-20
~40
100+
Larger battery and less emissions
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Electric drive technologies and annual electricity
consumption
Annual Electricity Usage per Vehicle*
(kWh)
• 75% of Americans drive less than 40
miles on their daily commute
• 40 miles electric only - achieves
similar GHG reduction as BEV
- Limited need for public charging
• BEVs will require faster charge rates
and more daytime charging to
address range “anxiety”
- Needs public charging infrastructure
*
Assumes a vehicle drives 12,500 miles / day, PHEV and EREV electric usage varies depending on drive characteristics, Chevy Volt-type vehicle at 5 mi/kWh
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In addition to technology advances, multiple factors
are aligning to support a successful launch of PEVs
U.S.A.
Rest of World
Policy
$2.4 Billion in U.S. stimulus
dollars directed at advanced
automotive batteries
European Union target of 95
grams of CO2/km by 2020
=> 60 mpg
Climate
Significant activity in
Washington on federal climate
legislation
China’s commitment to
building 500,000/year hybrid
and electric vehicles by 2012
Energy Security
Push for a domestic fuel
source and fear of the return of
high gas prices
Urban smog in emerging
mega-cities
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Plug-ins have a big fuel cost advantage …
but for now, disadvantaged on purchase price
US example
Fuel Cost Comparison*
($/Mile)
$12,500 - $17,500
fuel savings over
10 years*
*
… but BIG upfront premium today
~$15,000 premium over
regular car reduced by
$7,500 tax credit
Gallon of gasoline equivalent price computed comparing ICE mileage of 26 mpg to PEV mileage of 5 mi/kWh at $0.10/kWh, 12,500 miles per year, undiscounted
Summary of current PEV incentives
•
•
•
•
USA
– Goal of 1 million by ‘15
– Up to $7,500 / vehicle
Canada
– Ontario: up to C$10,000 / veh
– Green license plate: 5 yrs of
HOV, special parking
France
– $2.2 B for 1 mil. charge points
– $7,500 / vehicle through ‘12
UK
– >$400 mil infrastr and auto
– $8,500 / vehicle, London lead
•
China
– 25 mil cars and 100 mil e-bikes!
– Most are 1st time car buyers
– 100% tax on reduced for PEVs
– 13 cities picked for roll-out
– $8,800 for taxi and gov’t
– Skip ICE tech to focus on PEV
•
Japan
– PEVs ~$16,000 incentive plus
reduced road tax and registration
– 8 cities picked for pilots
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Electric drive reduces GHG emissions
and our addiction to imported oil
Freedom from
petroleum:
electricity a
domestic
resource
350
Future
ICE
Hybrid
Gasoline
*
Source:
Coal
Natural Gas Nuclear, Wind,
Solar, etc.
Electricity (by source)
204 lb/MMBtu CO2 emissions rate (no carbon capture), 9,500 heat rate coal plant, 7,500 heat rate natural gas plant, ICE engine at 26 mpg, Hybrid
drivetrain between 30-45 mpg, electric motor at 5 mi/kWh
Argonne National Labs GREET Model, DTE Team Analysis
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Infrastructure in place for broad PEV adoption
ILLUSTRATIVE
MW
Impact of PEV on Typical Summer Load Profile (Ideal Case)*
10% market
share**
*
**
Source:
PHEV is likely to also contribute to increased load during peak hours. Illustrative example of electric utility load – similar to Detroit Edison
Estimated 600,000 cars and light trucks (does not include diesel trucks, buses, etc), 12,500 miles per year, 3.0 mi/kWh average efficiency, 75% electric
operation
DTE analyses, EPRI/NRDC Report
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Uncontrolled charging could lead to
localized outages if not properly managed
Load shape for warm summer day –
adding 3 PEVs to a neighborhood
25 kVA Transformer with Uncontrolled PEV Load*
Peak Capacity
Summer Load
3 PEV @ 1.4 kW
3 PEV @ 3.3 kW
Design Capacity`
*
8-12 smaller, older homes per 25 kVA circuit. Most homes without central AC.
• Potential problems
– Voltage dips (dimming lights, damage
to expensive electronics)
– Service interruption
– Transformer failure
• Measures to address these issues
– On-vehicle charging control
(time/date control)
– Utility notified at time of PEV
purchase
– SmartGrid technology
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Can PEVs absorb excess off-peak wind
generation in the future?
Windy Spring Day (~60% cap. factor)
Illustrative Example
Generation and Load Profile in MISO – 2020 Estimate
MW
• The answer is yes – however:
- Need ~10% of vehicles to be
PEV by ‘20 - ’25
Wind generation
• Wind tends to blow more at
night when electric demand is
at its lowest
• Creates carbon free
transportation
Noon
6 PM
April 11
Midnight
6 AM
Noon
April 12
* Assumes 20% RES requirement with 15% from wind (based on actual 2009 data – scaled up 5.4x for 2020)
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US Utility industry pledge:
Accelerate adoption of plug-in electric vehicles
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What should utilities and regulators
be working on today?
• Streamlined process for customer is #1 priority
– MiniE/EV1 home install: 30-40 days average with up to $3,000 installation cost
– Integration with utility system planning can avoid localized transformer issues
• Develop PEV rates and capture benefits from flexible nature of demand
• Consider a “behind-the-meter” home charging station installation service offering
Home
Charging
Customer /
Stakeholder
Education
Public
Charging
• Be ready to handle customer questions, carbon equation
• Update building codes to include 240V outlet in new home garages
• Work with state and local inspection agencies to create a streamlined
permitting/inspection process for plug-in EV charging stations
• How much, how soon?
• Form public / private partnerships to install high visibility charge spots
Create pilot programs today to “work out kinks” while vehicle volumes are low
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