Transcript High-level seminar on population censuses and statistics of migration in the CIS countries UNECE, Federal State Statistics Service of Russia Gelendzhik, 16-18 October.

High-level seminar on population censuses and statistics of migration
in the CIS countries
UNECE, Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
Gelendzhik, 16-18 October 2013
Olga Chudinovskikh,
Lomonosov Moscow State University /
Higher School of economics
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Positive trends of the latest decade
Peculiarities of migration in the CIS region
and its reflection in statistics
Producers and main types of data – a system,
but not separate elements
Main challenges in the sphere of statistics
on migration through the prism of statistics
on permanent-type and temporary labour
migration
Concluding remarks
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Development of migration modules in the questionnaires
used at the recent censuses
Every country has agencies that collect almost all types of
data related to migration (level of development and
interactions may differ)
More sources are involved into data processing and
exchange at the national level (depending on financial
support and political will of data producers).
More data are published , access to statistics becomes
easier (including microdata). Diversification of published
statistics.
Development of mutual understanding between national
statistical agencies and administrative bodies collecting
data on migration and related events
4
Producers of migration (and related events) data at the national
level in the CIS states
Data for statistics of flows
Agencies
responsible for
populaiton
registration,
migration and
citizenship
•Work permits
•Asylum
•Residence
permits
•Citizenship
•Administrative
practices ets.
Data on labour
migration
Data on
refugees and
IDPs
“Current”
registration
of flows
National
statistical agency
Data on
repatriants
Censuses
Border service
Ministry of
education
Other agencies
Data on entries and exits by countries,
purposes and types of transport
Foreign students: enrollment,
stock and graduates
MFA
Labour force and
living standards
surveys
Visa statistics, Citizenship
Data on registrations in consulates
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•
•
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Data that were the subject of analysis
characterized
1) permanent-type migration –
censuses of the recent round
annual (current) statistics of flows
2) labour migration (mainly temporary),
Including available data of different surveys,
censuses , administrative data of migration
authorities and expert estimates
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Dramatic decrease of population born in the European part of
the former USSR, mainly these people represent “old”
generations.
Considerable increase of population born in the Central Asian
region (mainly – of working ages)
“Foreign born” population step by step started to represent
real international migration (not “statistical” foreign born that
was counted right after the breakdown of the USSR).
People born in a certain country and having its citizenship
differ by country and comparing to each other.
Some examples:
Russia
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1.1
1
0.5
0
1.2
0.9
0.8
1.0
0.7
1.0
1.2
1.0
1.2
0.8
0.9
1.0
2010 to 2002
2002 to 1989
2010 to 1989
3.5
3
2.8
2.5
2
1.7
1.5
1.2
1.1
1
0.8
0.5
0.5
0
0.6
2009 to 1999
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.6
1999 to 1989
0.8
0.6
2009 to 1989
Kazakhstan 2009/1999
Other
Russia 2010/2002
0.5
Not identified
Uzbekistan
8.7
Ukraine
Turkmenistan
0.88
0.66
Kyrgyzstan
5.53
1.55
Kazakhstan
1.38
0.40
Georgia
2.44
Azerbaijan
1.36
Moldova
Kyrgyzstan
0.23
Belarus
2.64
Armenia
1.85
Tajikistan
1.11
Belarus
0.41
Turkmenistan
0.88
Georgia
0.81
Uzbekistan
2.85
Moldova
0.41
Ukraine
6.96
Russia
Stateless
Other
1.37
Tajikistan
3.26
1.59
0.69
Armenia
0.43
Azerbaijan
0.44
CIS and Georgia
1.6
CIS
0.64
Foreign population total
1.19
Foreigners total
0.67
RK citizens
1.07
Total resident population
1.07
0
5
10
RF citizens
0.97
Total popualtion
0.98
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
59.0
60 - 64
36.3
55 - 59
37.4
50 - 54
31.1
0.2
60 - 64
0.2
0.3
1.8
18.4
30 - 34
17.1
16.1
25 - 29
15.6
14.8
2.3
females
10 - 14
2.2
2.1
5-9
1.2
1.2
0-4
0.6
0.6
0
2.1
males
6.0
15 - 19
6.6
Belarus
50
100
0.7
40 - 44
0.8
1.0
1.1
30 - 34
2.7
11.7
20 - 24
12.5
45 - 49
35 - 39
2.8
Belarus
0.5
1.050 - 54
1.5
24.5
0.4
0.555 - 59
males
34.4
45 - 49
35 - 39
19.9
50
Belarus
43.2
23.940 - 44
100
0.165 - 69
51.3
45.5
1.0
0.4 70+
females
34.9
65 - 69
21.1
35.3
Belarus
116.7
70+
1.2
25 - 29
1.4
20 - 24
1.4
0.8
15 - 19
10 - 14
0.3
0.3
0.3 5 – 9
0.3
0.3 0 - 4
0.2
150
4
2
0
2
70+
3.97.0
males
60 - 7.5
64
Tajikista
n
Tajikistan
4.0
2.9
65 - 69
females
9.0
5512.3
- 59
13.7
Tajikistan
50 - 54
17.0
14.4
males
45 - 49
22.6
16.3
40 - 44
27.7
16.9
34.6 35 - 39
21.4
36.7
30 - 34
21.5
37.8
25 - 29
20.6
36.5
20 - 24
19.5
15
- 19
16.3
60 - 64
0.2
0.1
55 - 59
0.6
0.2
13.0
5.4
2.3
30 - 34
2.8
25 - 29
2.9
2.7
1.3 10 - 14
0.9
5–9
1.1
0-4
1.1
1.3
10
1.3
15 - 19
1.3
15
1.6
20 - 24
13.7
40.0
0.9
45 - 49
35 - 39
11.0
20.0
0.5
40 - 44
8.6
9.6
0.0
0.0
6.2
0 - 42.2
2.0
20.0
0.165 - 69
3.7
5 - 4.0
9 3.6
40.0
0.1
50 - 54
2.0
10 - 14
6.04.9
60.0
0.170+
5
0
5
168.0
70+
100.0
65 - 69
271
122
Turkey
165
174.0 60 - 64
females
262.0
55 - 59
227
480.0
50 - 54
248
786.0
males
40 - 44
66
1,241.0
35 - 39
68
females
1,228.0
30 - 34
66
Turkey
25 - 29
86
males
20 - 24
100 Turkey
1,096.0
1,109.0
585.0
10 - 14
151
5-9
140
170.0
174.0
1500.0 1000.0
500.0
0.0
500.0
6.065 - 69
3
60 - 64
29.0
3
55 - 59
61.0
5
50 - 54
196.0
9
499.0
882.0
975.0
952.0
477.0
190
0-4
0
748.0
52
15 - 19
115.0
144.0
Turkey
140
45 - 49
6.070+
1,500
1,000
45 - 49
21
40 - 44
26
35 - 39
42
30 - 34
47
25 - 29
65
20 - 24
59
15 - 19
79.0
22
10 - 14
25.0
19
29.05 – 9
26
53.0 0 - 4
36
500
0
500
CIS area is not a homogeneous migration space
Migration is very selective
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Millions of people residing in CIS are involved into migrations and the
biggest part of movements takes place within the region: about 92% of
immigrants come from / and 75% of emigrants go to another CIS country,
Russia is the main destination country both for long-term and temporary
migrants from the other CIS states. In 2000-2011 it has positive netmigration with all CIS countries (except Belarus).
After the breakdown of the USSR migration ties between some of the
former soviet republics (excluding Russia) weakened dramatically ( for
example, Ukraine – Central Asia, Armenia-Azerbaijan, UzbekistanTajikistan, Turkmenistan - all the other countries);
Tajikistan
99.4
0.6
Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan
97.8
2.2
Azerbaijan
96.8
Uzbekistan
97.3
2.7
Kyrgyzstan
95.7
Azerbaijan
96.0
4.0
Uzbekistan
Russian Federation
95.1
4.9
Belarus
86.6
13.4
Kazakhstan
86.3
13.7
Ukraine
83.0
Armenia
17.0
67.9
Moldova
32.1
52.2
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Total share of immigrants from CIS
From countries outside CIS
3.2
4.3
90.3
9.7
Armenia
77.6
22.4
Kazakhstan
77.0
23.0
Moldova
70.4
Belarus
29.6
65.4
Ukraine
47.8
0.3
99.7
34.6
61.5
Russian…
38.5
54.7
45.3
100%
0%
50%
Total share of emigrants to CIS
To the countries outside CIS
100%
Data of the national statistical office of :
ARM
AZ
BEL
KAZ
KYRG
MOLD
RUS
TAJ
TURK
UKR
UZB
ARM
0
0
2
1
0
0
168
0
0
11
0
AZER
-4
0
3
2
0
0
111
0
-1
9
0
BEL
-1
-1
0
-11
-1
-1
-4
-1
0
-9
-2
GEOR
1
2
2
1
0
0
83
0
0
9
0
KAZ
-1
-1
15
0
-34
0
423
-4
-28
16
-217
KYRGYS
0
0
1
19
0
0
171
-7
0
3
-1
MOLD
0
0
3
0
0
0
100
0
0
30
0
RUS
-56
-18
39
-395
-290
-26
0
-73
-56
-52
-290
TAJ
0
0
1
3
4
0
119
0
0
2
4
TURK
0
1
2
32
0
0
46
0
0
3
0
UKR
-3
-1
20
-4
-2
-20
263
-2
-1
0
-17
UZB
0
1
4
274
-1
0
343
-8
-1
30
0
CIS
-64
-16
92
-77
-324
-46
1821
-94
-88
51
-523
TOTAL
-76
-16
77
-173
-340
-55
1566
-94
-90
-75
-584
25,000
4,500
4,000
20,000
3,500
3,000
15,000
2,500
10,000
2,000
1,500
5,000
1,000
0
500
Azerbaijan to the RF (Azstat)
Эмиграция из РФ в Азербайджан (Росстат) Left
from the RF to Azerbaijan (Rosstat)
Иммиграция из Азербайджана в РФ (Росстат) Arrived from
Azerbaijan to RF (Rosstat)
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Эмиграция из Азербайджана в РФ (АзСтат ) Left from
2000
0
Иммиграция из РФ в Азербайджан (Азстат)
Arrived from the RF to Azerbaijan (Azstat)
10000
3000
Net migration RB data
2500
8000
2000
Net migration RF data
6000
1500
1000
4000
500
0
2000
-500
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
-2000
2000
0
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
-1000
-1500
-2000
-4000
-6000
-2500
Net migration RB data
Net migration Ukr.
data
60000
40000
20000
Net migration Ukr. data
Net migration RF data
0
-20000
-40000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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“Asymmetry” of roles: mainly sending
or mainly receiving states
Major part of workers move to the RF
and partially – to Kazakhstan , migrants
from the European countries of the CIS
much more often chose the countries of
the other part of the world.
Most part of migrants are
undocumented
Temporary forms are prevailing
Migrant-workers in Russia and Belarus
mainly come from the CIS area, while
the other countries invite skilled
workers from the other part of the
world. (CIS: RF > 90%, RB – 40%,
Ukraine – 30%, RT and AzR – about 10%)
CIS nationals are rare among highly
skilled workers (in the RF- 7-8% )
Volume
Countries of
Destinations
Sources:
Armenia
80 th.
Russia (95%)
Migration Service, 2010
Azerbaijan
More 100
th
Russia (more 80%)
Estimation based on
Russian data, 2011
Kyrgyzstan
250-300
th
Russia (80-85%),
Kazakhstan (15%)
Population Census, 2009
Moldova
300 th.
Russia (60%), EU (30%)
Labor Force Survey, 20092010
Tajikistan
430 th
Russia (95%-98%)
Households Survey, 2008
Ukraine
1.5 mln
Russia (48,1%), Italy
(13.4%), Czech Rep.
(11.9%)
Ukrainian External Labor
Migration. National survey
2005-2008.
Uzbekistan
> 1 mln
Russia (60%-70%%)
Kazakhstan (25%30%%)
Estimation based on
Russian and Kazakhstan
data, 2011
250.0
800.0
736.4 750.1
200.0
Work permits
issued for KR
citizens in Russia
150.0
KR household
100.0
survey data
(stock of
700.0
646.3
677.4
600.0 574.0
Migr. Cards RT
(estimate 95% of total
500.0
outflow)
Work permits isseud
400.0
in RF for RT citizens
nationals
50.0
abroad)
300.0
200.0
0.0
2006
2008
2009
Survey data (Kyrgyzstan)
on absent population
compared with the
Federal Migr. Service of
Russia data on issued
work permits
267.3
195.1
213.0
171.2
168.8
134.0
2009
2010
199.6
Patents sold to RT
citizens
100.0
0.0
2007
2008
2011
Migration cards
(Tajikistan) and FMS data
on issued work permits
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Alternatives to traditional “statistical”
data sources (data on residence permits
can partly substitute statistics of
immigration flows)
Admin. Data on work permits can be the
main (if not the only) source of
information on labour migration
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
Moldova
2012
Azerbaijan
2011
Tajikistan
2010
Uzbekistan
Armenia
Ukraine
0.000
10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000
Rapid increase in
numbers for RK and
KR are caused by
the changes in
legislation on
citizenship. Before
2011 these
migrants could
apply for the RF
citizenship without
any additional
status and did not
need residence
permit
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Seems to not realistic so far
Even annual statistics of flows shows
considerable discrepancies
Solution: comprehensive metadata
Competent users
An intermediary agency that collects,
harmonizes and publishes data from different
states
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Political decisions are usually based on data
produced by national stat. agency
If data are not good or interpreted incorrectly
- decisions are not efficient
Since the ties in the CIS area are still rather
close, policy of a country is not indifferent to
the neighbours
Conclusion - Вывод – статистика миграции
не имеет границ, и должна
восприниматься как «своя» , вне
зависимости от страны , где произведена
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Statistics of flows - use e-format instead of paper carriers
Censuses – questions about absent population should not limit
time of absence (up to 5 hears)
Surveys - to conduct sample surveys in the CIS area simultaneously
or without considerable time interval, harmonized methodology
and questionnaires, to create a joint database
Diversification of data sources, involvement of administrative data
related to migration and its consequences
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Methodology: revision of recommendation is necessary
Coordination of efforts in the region via a respected agency with
international (regional) mandate .
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! To treat sources and data as a system, not as
separate elements

 Благодарю
 Thank
за внимание!
you for your
attention!
100%
90%
2.7
7.4
7.6
80%
70%
12.3
6.8
18.2
29.5
5+
60%
14.5
3 years
50%
40%
2 years
19.3
1 year
31.3
30%
20%
4 years
33.5
10%
16.8
0%
International
Internal
9 months- one year