Transcript European Commission - DG Environment Further Development and Application of the TREMOVE Transport Model WG Target Setting and Policy Assessment Brussels, 16 June 2004 Jacques.

European Commission - DG Environment
Further Development and Application
of the TREMOVE Transport Model
WG Target Setting and Policy Assessment
Brussels, 16 June 2004
Jacques Delsalle
European Commission
DG Environment, Unit C1
Clean Air for Europe
Objective of TREMOVE
further development
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TREMOVE model was developed for 2nd Auto-Oil
Programme
It was assessed in 2001: recommended further
development
Objective : Make available to the European
Commission services a transport model
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environmental and economic analysis, up to 2020
different policies and measures to reduce the atmospheric
emissions (incl. greenhouse gases)
all modes of transport (road, rail, aviation, maritime and
inland waterways)
enlarged European Union (first step : 4 new M/S)
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Structure of TREMOVE 2
Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues
Speed & Load
Transport
demand
module
Traffic
demand
Vehicle
stock
turnover
module
Usage
Usage
Cost
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Stock
structure
Fuel
consumption
and emissions
module
Welfare cost
module
External
Costs
Usage
Stock
structure
Fuel consumption
Life cycle
emissions
module
European Commission - DG Environment
TREMOVE Development :
project status
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Lot 1 (2003)
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Model design and preliminary baseline (2.0) completed by
March 2004 (available on www.tremove.org)
Lot 2 (2004)
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Baseline consistency checks with RAINS
Stakeholder Consultation on model and baseline
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27-28 May : Transport demand and vehicle stock
21 June : Emission Factors
Identification of emission reduction options
Model ready: Oct. 2004 (revised baseline, all modules)
Lot 3 (2005-2006) : Policy Simulations
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Tremove Contact Group
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Lot 2: 3 meetings to discuss the baseline and
the model structure
Ad-hoc Group of Experts, build for Tremove
Assessment
30/4/04 : Invitation sent to CAFE Baseline
Stakeholder Group
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Positive reply : 6 contributions so far
We need more!
A further meeting in autumn to discuss policy
options and Lot 3 organisation.
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Consistency between TREMOVE
and RAINS baselines up to 2020
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TREMOVE uses more detailed activity data than
PRIMES / RAINS (through the European network
model SCENES
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TREMOVE and RAINS share common macro-economic
assumptions.
While transport volume projections are close for road
transport, non-road demand forecasts still deserve a
further work (rail freight, maritime)
Fuel consumption 25% lower in TREMOVE by 2000
than PRIMES (and Eurostat)
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gap increases by 2020 due to the large increase in diesel
cars market share (while in PRIMES/RAINS the latter is
constant between 2000 and 2020).
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Transport Demand :
SCENES forecasts
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SCENES : a clear improvement since TREMOVE 1.3
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Key issues
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get homogeneous forecasts for all countries and all modes
a complementary tool for policy simulation
Constant user costs in real terms 1995-2020
Load factors / occupancy rates
Car ownership model in SCENES vs TREMOVE
Build a consistent baseline for SCENES
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Take into account statistics 1995-2002 + existing forecasts
Inclusion of (official) national growth projections for its input
assumptions (car ownership, level of user costs)
e-mail to C.A.F.E. Baseline Stakeholders Group (deadline
10/7/2004)
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Transport demand and
Vehicle Stock modules
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Utility trees : reconstitute SCENES Forecasts
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Determination of elasticities of substitution
Some substitutions not allowed (e.g. short see shipping vs.
rail or road)
Vehicle stock . Further improvements planned for
version 2.2 (October 2004)
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Load factors
Comparison with TRENDS (Eurostat) for diesel share
Limitation for growth diesel cars % : fuel production
constraints, car market. No a-priori objective.
Rail : diesel vs. electric
Aviation, Maritime : constant vehicle stock structure
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Emission Factors
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TREMOVE 2.1 to be delivered this week, including
COPERT III emission factors (due to the delay of the
ARTEMIS project)
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To be discussed at Contact Group Meeting Monday 21st
June
We are aware of the limitations of COPERT III
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Fuel consumption : until Euro I only. Ad hoc modifications
based on CO2&Cars Commission database
Real life vs. test cycle emissions (Nox HGV)
Artemis should be available by February 2005 and benefit
from Cost-346 and handbook on emission factors for road
transport 2.1 (DE, AT, CH).
If not, need to focus Lot 3 resources on improvement
emission factors module
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