Transcript Slide 1
TREMOVE ETISPLUS workshop Griet De Ceuster SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIES source: general literature CALIBRATED on SCENES and TIF SPEED CONGESTION FUNCTIONS EMISSIONS FUNCTIONS (SPEED -FLOW) MOHRING FUNCTIONS sources: ROAD: draft COPERT IV with adapted fuel cons. RAIL, AIR: TRENDS IWW: preliminary ARTEMIS OCCUPANCY RATES LOAD FACTORS (PUBLIC TRANSPORT) module input data & functions source: SCENES + others output data consistency check PKM & TKM : 1995 2000 2020 2030 = SCENES = TIF = TIF (+TRENDS, EUROSTAT) = SCENES (only for baseline baseline ) = based on PRIMES growth rate AIR TRANSPORT DE MAND MODULE PKM TKM VKM EMISSIONS EMISSIONS MODULE detailed VKM FUEL & ENERGY CONSUMPTION IWW TRANSPORT COST/KM (prices, taxes, subsidies) source: SCENES, COWI + others VKM increase per year 2000 ~ PRIMES / RAINS VKM detailed shares WTT EMISSION FACTORS sources: PRIMES, RAINS, ECOINVENT RAIL ROAD VEHICLE STOCK MODULE VEHICLE STOCK STOCK IN 1995 LIFE CYCLE EMISSIONS MODULE 1995 -2005 ~ actual sales LIFE CYCLE EMISSIONS 1995 = TRENDS source: TRENDS + UIC SCRAPPAGE FUNCTIONS source: TRENDS + other EXTERNAL COST FACTORS source: CAFE CBA, GRACE SALES FUNCTIONS source: sales in recent years CAILBRATED on COWI 99-00- + TRENDS total transport EXPENSES, CS, PS, GOVERN. REVENUE WELFARE MODULE WELFARE differences 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 2 TREMOVE 1 for DG ENV • … - 1999 • Developed by : KUL, DRI • Application in Auto-Oil II programme – Cost-effectiveness analysis of : • Vehicle emission standards • Fuel quality standards • Non-technical measures – Public transport subsidies, scrappage, … • Fuel taxes 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 3 TREMOVE 2.0–2.52 for DG ENV • 2002 - 2007 • Developed by : TML, KUL et al. • Cost-effectiveness analysis of : • EURO 5 standards • Car CO2 policy (2012, 2015 objectives) • Maritime policies (aftertreatment, …) • Plane taxes • Mid-term review White Paper DG TREN 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 4 TREMOVE 2.7 : GRACE • Released November 2007 • Development by TML • For : EC FP6 GRACE (coordinator ITS, Leeds) • Cost-effectiveness analysis of : Km-charging policies (road and other modes) • Can be executed without software licenses 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 5 TREMOVE 3.0 : REFIT EC FP6 REFIT (coordinator : TNO) • Preliminary technical link between TREMOVE and TRANSTOOLS – TransTools is the new network-based forecasting model of the European Commission, developed by TNO, TRT, … – Development by TML and TRT • TML also developed the EDIP model 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 6 TREMOVE 3.1 for JRC • For JRC-IPTS • TML, Okö-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI • New car ‘materials’ module – Calculating material flows related to car and replacements parts – Linked by JRC to IMPROcar LCA model • 4 Policy simulations : – Promoting smaller & lighter cars – Accelerated scrappage & replacement 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 7 TREMOVE 3.2 : iTREN EC FP6 iTREN-2030 (coordinator : ISI) • Developing a common 2030 forecast with : – TRANSTOOLS – POLES : Energy / technology model (JRCIPTS,TRT) – ASTRA : Economy / transport model (Fraunhofer ISI) • Automated data exchange with TRANSTOOLS • Extension with new car technologies – Hydrogen – Electric 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 8 TREMOVE 3.3 for ENV • Taxes and prices – VAT rates & evolution – National taxation – Fuel prices: IEA extract • • • • • Demand baseline: from iTREN Rail stock from EX-TREMIS Road stock from FLEETS BY set to 2005 Maritime model • • • • • • Issue in demand (buses) originating from iTREN Validation Calibration Database clean-up Alternative baseline: data is set Sensitivity – Updated with EX-TREMIS values 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 9 TREMOVE 3.4 for JRC • Baseline update • Purpose: DG MOVE White Paper 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 10 GLADYSTE ETISPLUS workshop Griet De Ceuster Gladyste • The new TREMOVE • World • System dynamics – Demand module independent from other sources – Demand can also be exogenous • Vensim • Ready by end of 2010 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 12 Features • Copy of TREMOVE • Additional demand module • Additional 24 world regions (+33 European zones) • 4 modules: Demand, Fleet, Energy Use / Emissions, and Welfare 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 13 Linkages with other models • Copy of TREMOVE • Demand module partly based on ASTRA (not identical) • Link with POLES developed – Export to Poles • Link with TRANS-TOOLS will be developed – Overrule Gladyste demand and replace by Trans-Tools demand 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 14 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 15 Screenshot FLEET module 24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 16 Thank you!