Transcript G. C. Koltsakis

LABORATORY OF APPLIED THERMODYNAMICS
Laboratory Profile
ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY THESSALONIKI
SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DEPT. OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
General information
Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics (LAT)
 Structure:
Part of the Mechanical Engineering Dept., Energy Sector
Aristotle University Thessaloniki
 Housing:
A total area of 600 m2 in the University campus
(testing facilities 400 m2, offices 200 m2)
 Personnel:
~20 engineers, 3 technicians and undergraduate students
 Faculty Staff: Prof. Zissis Samaras (Director), Assoc. Prof. Grigoris Koltsakis,
Emeritus Prof. Konstantinos Pattas
 Turnover:
~600 k€ annually
 Membership: Member of EARPA
 Website:
(European Automotive Research Partners Association)
http://lat.eng.auth.gr
Scientific & research areas
 Design and development of exhaust aftertreatment devices
 Study of particle emissions from engines and aerosol technology
 Engine & vehicle exhaust emissions measurement & characterization
 Emission inventories and forecasts
 Renewable energy sources, incl. automotive biofuels
LABORATORY OF APPLIED THERMODYNAMICS
EC4MACS - LAT
ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY THESSALONIKI
SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DEPT. OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Questions to be answered
 Available tools for EC4MACS
 Use for policy analysis
 Extensions foreseen in the coming years, additional insights
 Which linkages to other aspects (outside the own modelling domain)
could be of relevance?
 Critical interfaces with other models
 Questions
Our role in EC4MACS
 Task 6:
 Period:
Transport scenarios
Oct. 2006 – Sep. 2011
 Actions
 6.1: Update baseline transport projections
 6.2: Alternative scenarios proposed by the Commission/stakeholders
 6.3: Evaluate options, including uncertainty characterisation
 Deliverables
 6.1 Interim baseline transport projection (2007)
 6.2 Interim assessment of alternative transport scenarios (2008)
 6.3 Final baseline transport projection (2009)
 6.4 Final policy scenarios (2010-2011)
TREMOVE Model
 TREMOVE is a policy assessment model, designed to study the effects of
different transport and environment policies on the emissions of the
transport sector and was developed for Auto-Oil II Programme
 Objective: Make available to the European Commission services a
transport model
 that is applied for environmental and economic analysis, up to 2020
 of different policies and measures to reduce the atmospheric
emissions (incl. greenhouse gases)
 from all modes of transport (road, rail, aviation, maritime and inland
waterways)
 in the enlarged European Union
 LAT is only a user and (so far), not a developer of TREMOVE
TREMOVE Developments
TREMOVE 2 - Lot 3 (KUL)
TREMOVE III Lot 1 (TML)
TREMOVE III - Lot 2 (LAT)
TREMOVE Review (MNP/IEEP/IIASA/BIO)
Car choice / taxation (IEEP)
EU Vehicles Database
Further framework for model maintenance
and improvement
TREMOVE Development - TREMOVE II – Lot 3 (KUL)
 Task 3.1 - Calibration of the TREMOVE model
 Integrate of the most recent emission factors available at EU level
(COPERT IV – ARTEMIS)
 Validation of the data set of the model against the national statistics
and forecasts used for NEC
• Co-operation with IIASA
• Meetings with Member States, to complement and detail the data
and assumptions
• Adaptation of the model to the extent that it contributes to the
validity of the model and does not hamper its internal consistency.
 Revision of the baseline scenario fully consistent with the NEC
Baseline + variant based on alternative national projections.
 Task 3.2 - Simulation of 60 policy packages
 Euro 5, Maritime, CO2+Cars (on-going), etc.
 End of contract: 9/11/2006
TREMOVE III – Lot 1 (TML)
Develop source code & software structure (model speed, user interface)
Follow-up of “TRENDS-2” project (COPERT IV non-road modes, IPTS)
Allow easily introducing transport baseline data from alternative sources
Improve the dataset (best available level of detail and data quality)
Extension of the scope of TREMOVE to EU-27, CR, TU
Improve the structure of the model, so that behavioural responses are
better reproduced in all modes.
 Take into account the conclusions of independent model review
 Organise ad-hoc seminars with the most relevant experts
 Draft list of improvements:


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 Enable new modal substitutions / Endogeneous load factor and occupancy




rates for all modes
Review and validation of the set of price elasticities and elasticities of
substitution (EOS)
congestion/scarcity in non-road mode / Calibration of speed-flow relationships
Road vehicle 2nd hand Market
Revenue recycling options / MCPF
 Revised TREMOVE baseline scenario at the end of the contract (3/2007)
TREMOVE III – Lot 2 (LAT)
 60 policy scenarios with TREMOVE
 Until June 2006: preparation use TREMOVE, definition scenarios
 June/December 2006: TREMOVE runs for NEC
•
•
•
•
Future Emission standards
Technical measures on existing vehicles (Retrofit HDV)
Non-technical measures (Scrapping / Bans)
Full implementation Eurovignette provisions
 Other
• Infrastructure charging (DG TREN)
• Fuel taxes
TREMOVE III – Review (MNP)
 Independent and scientific review of TREMOVE
 MNP, IEEP, IIASA, BIO
 Assessment
• Check to what extent the structure of each module of TREMOVE
provides a scientifically credible representation of the reality.
• Define the limitations and the implied system boundaries and
explain to what extent may these restrict the validity of the
conclusions and policy advice
 Recommendations for improvements:
• Short term: to be implemented by TML before March 2007
• Medium/long term: prepare further framework for model
maintenance and improvement, after March 2007
EU Vehicle Database
 Low quality current data on vehicle stock
 Information about general aggregate categories only
 little consistent information on age and technology distribution
 very little information is available as regards disaggregated activity data.
 Objectives:
 Build a consistent and accurate database providing detailed information on
the stock of vehicles at country or regional level, minimum each year 20002005
 Cover the requirements of TREMOVE, TERM and COPERT.
 Define a methodology for the further regular update of the database.
 Scope:
 Al least TREMOVE 3 countries (EU27+4)
 All modes, as well as non-road mobile machinery
 Focus on road transport vehicle
 Consistency checks (Transport volumes, traffic counts, fuel consumption)
 Co-ordination (Eurostat, EEA, EMEP/CORINAIR, UNECE WP 6)
 Duation: January – December 2007
 Consortium: LAT, EnviCon, ICCS, KTI, Oekopol, Renault
Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS)
 Project funded by the European Commission Directorate
General for Transport and Energy
 Partners Participating in the Project:
 Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics/LAT
 Denmark Technical University/DTU
 ΨΑ-Consulting/Austria
 INFRAS/Switzerland
TRENDS Main Modules
Road Transport - LAT/AUTh
 Railway - DTU
 Maritime and Inland Shipping - DTU
 Aviation - ΨΑ-Consulting
 Transport Activity Balance (TAB) - INFRAS
 Calculation of Waste and Noise produced by Road Transport INFRAS
Methodological Steps for Road Transport
 Creation of Appropriate Data Bases
 System Dynamics Module
 Extrapolate Main Vehicle Categories
 Simulate Vehicle Turnover
 Produce Input Tables for COPERT
 Spatial Disaggregation
 Urban, Rural, Highway
 Temporal Disaggregation
 Yearly, Quarterly
Input Data used for TRENDS - Road Transport module
 Statistical data for 15 EU countries from 1970 to 1997
 Vehicle populations (PCs, commercial vehicles, buses and twowheelers)
 Vehicle density
 Saturation values
 Vehicle split - According to fuel and engine type
 Lifetime functions
Spatial and Temporal Disaggregation of Vehicle Emissions
 Spatial Disaggregation
 Emission Results Produced by TRENDS Allocated to EU15
 Cities
 Highways
 Rural Areas
 Statistical Data Provided by GISCO
 Production of GIS Maps
 Temporal Disaggregation
 Seasonal Distribution of Emission results
Spatial Disaggregation of Vehicle Emissions: CO urban rural and
highway emissions for Germany (1995)
CO-GERMANY
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100
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200 Miles
Road Em ission s CO tn /year/km
0 - 53
53 - 97
97 - 150
150 - 209
209 - 306
Settlements CO tn /year
631 - 7635
7636 - 20964
#
20965 - 48119
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48120 - 78821
78822 - 198334
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N
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NUTS CO
0.1 0.33
0.46
0.75
1.5 -
tn/year/km²
0.33
- 0.46
- 0.75
- 1.5
163.62
W
E
S
COPERT
 Copert is a methodology and a software tool to calculate emissions from
road transport
 Its development has been supported by the European Environment
Agency
 Input for methodology updates have been several European projects in
the area of emissions. The most well known have been:
 The Corinair activity
 The MEET/Cost 319 projects
 The Artemis/Particulates cluster
 JRC/CONCAWE activities on fuel evaporation
 The UNECE Task Force on Emission Inventories
 LAT has been the main developer over the recent years but Copert is
considered a collective development of many individuals/organizations
COPERT Usage
STEERS
TERM
TREMOVE
COPERT
TRENDS
EMEP
Guidebook
National
Inventories
Individual
Use
Auto Oil II
(CONCAWE)
ACEA





Auto - Oil II: Copert based forecast scenarios run on behalf of ACEA to estimate emission
evolution up to 2015
EMEP/CORINAIR: COPERT III methodology is the road transport and off-road machinery
emission chapter in the UNECE’s Emission Inventory Guidebook
EEA Activities: National and Central Estimates for Air Emissions from Road Transport
TERM : Transport and Environment Reporting Mechanism (Commission - Eurostat, DG TrEn - EEA)
TRENDS: Development of a Database system for the Calculation of Indicators of Environmental
Pressure Caused by Transport (DG TrEn study) supported by EEA
Copert III field of applications National level (Europe)
 Official National Inventories:
 Belgium



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
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

• Flemish (C. De Bosscher, VMM, Erembodegem)
• Wallon (I. Higuet, DGRNE, Namur)
• All (M. Squilbin, BIM, Brussels)
Bosnia (Martin Tais, Federal Meteorological Institute)
Croatia (Zeljko Juric, Ekonerg, Zagreb)
Cyprus (Chrysanthos Savvides, Min. of Labour, Nicosia)
Denmark (Morten Winther, RISOE, Roskilde)
Estonia (Natalje Kohv, Env. Inf. Centre, Talin)
France (Jean Pierre Chang, Paris)
Greece (Demetra Koutendakis, Nat. Obs/tory, Athens)
Ireland (Paul Duffy, EPA, Dublin)
Italy (Riccardo de Lauretis, ANPA, Rome)
Luxembourg (Thewes Frank, Lux. EPA, Luxembourg)
Moldova (Victor Ambroci, Nat. Cent. Env Monit.)
Slovenia (Alenka Fritzel)
Spain (Antonio Chao, AED SA, Madrid)
Comparison of Structure TREMOVE-TRENDS
Model
Demand
Module
Stock Module
Emission
Module
TREMOVE
(v2.44b)
PRIMES+
Elasticities on
the basis of
basecase
Foremove+
Copert 4
TRENDS
(2004 Version)
Gompertz
function (no
interface with
policy)
Foremove+
Copert 4
Comparison of the different models available
Current Version
Geographical range
Time span
Vehicle categories
Transport modes
Vehicle activity
Vehicle emissions
Current use in production
of TERM indicators
Outlook
COPERT
TRENDS
TREMOVE
4, v.3.0.0
Feb 2004
II, v2.44b
Applicable to any country
EU15
EU15+6
1970-2020
1970-2020
1995-2020
Annex A
Annex A
Annex B
Road
Road, air, rail, maritime
Road, air, rail, maritime
No activity data
Population, mileage, age,
speed
Population, mileage, age,
speed
Road
17 pollutants
Road 11 pollutants
(Based on COPERT)
Off-road
8 pollutants
Road 11 pollutants
(Based on COPERT)
Off-road
7-10 pollutants depending on
mode
TERM 27 and 28
TERM 03, 27, 28, 32 and 34
TERM 33
COPERT 4 continuously
improving based on EEA
funding. New version
expected Sept. 2007
Call on off-road module by
JRC IPTS. Future TRENDS
development still open.
V2.5 being finalized to include
EU25 coverage up to 2030.
Further Development of TREMOVE/TRENDS/COPERT
 TREMOVE: v2.5 finalized on 9/3, covering EU27+4 up to 2030, including
Copert 4 emission functions
 TRENDS: Call (6/2006) from JRC/IPTS focusing mainly on emission
factors for non-road modes (won by TRT Milan)
 COPERT: Continuous funding from EEA/ETC ACC enough to support
development on the methodological and software fronts
 Currently TREMOVE is supported by DG ENV, Copert by EEA and TRENDS
by EUROSTAT and JRC
 There is discussion to transfer all responsibility for further development to
JRC (IPTS/IES)
 Future development plans to be decided in the months to come
Linkages and interfaces
 These have been already historically developed and will be
further enhanced in this project
 Rains/Gains
 Primes
 CAFÉ/Auto Oil
 Accent/Geia
…