Federal Funding Update: We Live in Interesting Times Maryland Senate Budget and Taxation Committee January 28, 2015 Federal Funds Information for States www.ffis.org.
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Federal Funding Update: We Live in Interesting Times Maryland Senate Budget and Taxation Committee January 28, 2015 Federal Funds Information for States www.ffis.org Big Questions How does FY 2015 budget play out? Is there any hope for common ground? – – – – – FY 2016 appropriations Budget Control Act (BCA) Expiring programs Tax reform Debt limit But first, the basics Composition of Federal Outlays in FY 2013 ($ in Billions, % of Total) Per capita federal spending flowing to Maryland, FY 2013 Source: Pew Charitable Trusts What program areas are supported by federal grants to state/local gov’t? Recent trends in grant funding $5,000 $0 District of Columbia Alaska Wyoming New York New Mexico Vermont Mississippi West Virginia Rhode Island Louisiana Maine Montana Tennessee Arkansas Delaware Kentucky Massachusetts Oregon Puerto Rico California Hawaii North Dakota Arizona Ohio Michigan Missouri Connecticut Alabama South Dakota Pennsylvania U.S. Average Idaho Oklahoma Indiana Iowa North Carolina Minnesota Wisconsin Illinois South Carolina Georgia Texas Maryland New Jersey Florida Nebraska Washington Utah Kansas Colorado Virginia New Hampshire Nevada Per capita federal spending on selected grants, FY 2013 $6,000 $4,815 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,877 $1,187 $1,000 © 2014 Federal Funds Information for States Federal grants going to Maryland: per capita, FY 2013 Major Category U.S. Average Per Capita Medicaid Other State Local Individual/Other $852 587 88 344 $695 486 80 279 36 48 24 38 $1,871 $1,540 42 Total Maryland Maryland Per Capita Rank Conflicts on the horizon FY 2015 Homeland Security/immigration FY 2016 budget; amending BCA Deficit reduction Tax reform Federal workforce Debt limit Highway Trust Fund solvency Expiring programs The BCA is the law of the land Discretionary sequestration persists in form of lower caps Mandatory sequestration still occurs – – – Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) extended it to FY 2023 Repeal unlikely ATB percentages applied to current-law levels Defense Nondefense FY 2014 -9.8% -7.2% FY 2015 -9.5% -7.3% The BCA going forward BCA projections The Budget Control Act: Sequestration and Discretionary Caps FYs 2013-2021 (dollars in billions) 2013 2014 1/ 2015 1/ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nondefense caps Sequestration: nondefense discretionary Subtotal Change from previous year ($) Change from previous year (%) $490.9 -26.4 464.5 NA NA $506.0 -14.2 491.8 27.3 5.9% $520.0 -27.6 492.4 0.6 0.1% $530.0 -37.0 493.0 0.6 0.1% $541.0 -37.3 503.7 10.7 2.2% $553.0 -37.3 515.7 11.9 2.4% $566.0 -36.3 529.7 14.0 2.7% $578.0 -35.1 542.9 13.2 2.5% $590.0 -34.8 555.2 12.3 2.3% Nondefense, mandatory sequestration -16.9 -18.1 -17.2 -17.7 -17.4 -17.3 -18.4 -19.6 -19.9 Defense caps Sequestration Subtotal Change from previous year ($) Change from previous year (%) 552.1 -34.3 517.8 NA NA 552.0 -31.5 520.5 2.7 0.5% 566.0 -44.7 521.3 0.8 0.2% 577.0 -53.9 523.1 1.8 0.3% 590.0 -53.9 536.1 13.0 2.5% 603.0 -53.9 549.1 13.0 2.4% 616.0 -53.9 562.1 13.0 2.4% 630.0 -53.9 576.1 14.0 2.5% 644.0 -53.9 590.1 14.0 2.4% $1,039.8 $1,064.7 23.7 24.9 2.3% 2.4% $1,091.8 27.0 2.5% $1,119.0 27.2 2.5% $1,145.3 26.3 2.3% Total discretionary spending Change from previous year ($) Change from previous year (%) $982.3 $1,012.2 $1,013.6 $1,016.1 NA 29.9 1.4 2.4 NA 3.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1/ FY 2013 discretionary caps reflect FY 2013 appropriations. FY 2013 sequestration includes other adjustments. 2/ FYs 2014 and 2015 subtotals are the revised caps in the Bipartisan Budget Act, which partially reduces the effect of sequestration on discretionary spending. Source: Congressional Budget Office Implications of the BCA Source: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, 2/14 Expiring programs in an uncertain environment Programs covering all major areas expire in 2015 Most are mandatory-funded programs – Require congressional action Some have been operating under short-term extensions for years ACA programs at greatest risk National funding at stake Recent and upcoming deadlines October 1, 2014 • Mandatory sequestration • Health insurance rate review, ADRCs, College Access Challenge grants expired January 1, 2015 • Medicaid primary care increase expired • No new exchange grants • Tax extenders expired February 27, 2015 • FY 2015 CR for Homeland Security expires Recent and upcoming deadlines March 15, 2015 April 1, 2015 June 1, 2015 • Debt limit reinstated • Qualifying Individual, Transitional Medical Assistance, Early Childhood Home Visiting and others expire • Highway Trust Fund (HTF) projected to become insolvent • Surface transportation programs expire Recent and upcoming deadlines July 1, 2015 • Import-Export Bank expires October 1, 2015 • TANF and related programs expire • No new allotments for CHIP • Many ACA programs expire • Airport improvement program expires • Some child nutrition programs expire • Internet tax moratorium expires More questions than answers • Will it be total gridlock and if so, how will it affect states? Budget resolution Debt limit increase BCA Deficit reduction ACA Program extensions Tax reform Questions? For more information: www.ffis.org, Trinity Tomsic ([email protected] )