Federal Budget Update

NASBO Spring Meeting

April 20, 2012 San Diego, CA

Federal Funds Information for States

It All Began….

   FY 2012 appropriations completed in late December 2011.

– – Major discretionary programs: -2.7% versus FY 2011, -7.2% versus FY 2010.

Major mandatory programs : +5.5% versus FY 2011, +8.5% versus FY 2010.

BCA baseline would allow +$2 billion for each of security, nonsecurity discretionary spending in FY 2013 (+0.4%).

FFIS estimates about 18% of total state funding would be subject to sequester in January 2013.

And Then….

  President’s FY 2013 budget would replace the BCA sequester with other tax and spending policies to reduce the long-term deficit.

– FY 2013 discretionary spending would increase about 2.7%; mandatory would increase 7%.

House budget resolution would change everything, but its adoption mainly signals that the process is broken: – – It deviates significantly from the BCA.

The Senate intends to adhere to BCA spending levels.

– Hence, no concurrent budget resolution for FY 2013.

President’s Budget FY 2013

       A single, blended Medicaid matching rate; provider taxes; DSH National Preparedness Grant Program Surface transportation reauthorization (6-year) Limits on high-earner itemized deductions (including S/L taxes, tax-exempt bond interest) Allow Bush tax cuts to expire for household incomes > $250,000 UTF changes ESEA reauthorization

House Budget Resolution, FY 2013

$1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 2012 Total National Defense Global War on Terrorism Nondefense 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Federal Funds Information for States

House Budget Resolution, FY 2013

  Suspends sequester provisions for FY 2013.

– This results in more defense spending and less nondefense spending in FY 2013.

Calls for reconciliation.

– – Affects agriculture, energy and commerce, financial services, judiciary, oversight and government reform, ways and means.

Generates $18 billion in savings in FYs 2012-13, $261 billion over 10 years.

– – Combined with lower discretionary caps, this would generate more deficit reduction than BCA.

If unsuccessful, sequester would occur in FY 2013.

House FY 2013 Discretionary Budget Authority

Discretionary Budget Authority Under the FY 2013 House Budget Resolution, Selected Budget Functions ($ in millions) Discretionary Budget Authority

National Defense Energy Natural Resources & Environment Agriculture Transportation Community & Regional Development Education, Training, Employment, and Social Services Health Income Security Administration of Justice Global War on Terrorism

FY 2012

$554,240 4,731 34,706 5,851 33,767 18,483 92,241 56,089 61,253 51,188 126,544

FY 2013

$554,240 2,007 30,559 5,872 30,197 10,927 91,498 56,621 59,901 51,836 96,725

Change Dollars Percent

$0 -2,724 -4,147 21 0.0% -57.6% -11.9% 0.4% -3,570 -7,556 -743 532 -1,352 648 -29,819 -10.6% -40.9% -0.8% 0.9% -2.2% 1.3% -23.6%

House FY 2013 – Mandatory Proposals

       Medicaid becomes a block grant. (-$810 billion/10 years) – – Indexed to CPI-U and population Eliminate federal program requirements, enrollment criteria Premium support in lieu of current Medicare.

SNAP becomes a block grant.

– – Based on low-income population indexed for inflation Requires time limits and work requirements Consolidate workforce/job training programs.

Reorganize/consolidate K-12 programs.

Deficit-neutral tax reform.

Repeal ACA.

Which Leaves us Where?

 No concurrent budget resolution.

 No full-year appropriations bills completed prior to November elections.

 Likely lame-duck session to get things in order between elections and January sequester.

 In short, another year of muddling through.

While Nero Fiddles…

 Major programs needing long-term reauthorizations: – – TANF ESEA – WIA – SAFETEA-LU  Absent reauthorizations, more short-term extensions, more inability for states to plan ahead.

Contemplating a Lame Duck Session

 Looming sequestration  Need to raise the debt limit  Expiration of Bush-era tax cuts  Expiration of payroll tax cut, other tax provisions  FY 2013 budget  Uncompleted reauthorizations (TANF, highways)  The kitchen sink?

Are There Any Common Themes, Any Areas of Agreement?

 Yes. Everyone references GAO report on duplication and overlap. What does this mean?

– – Consolidate grant programs Homeland Security as example – – Reauthorizations for ESEA, WIA and transportation all consolidate programs Less funding, more flexibility. At least in theory.