Transcript Large Truck Crash Risk, Causation, & Prevention Ronald R. Knipling, Ph.D. Safety Consultant & Trainer Arlington, Virginia, USA [email protected] www.safetyforthelonghaul.com IRU Academy FADEEAC International Conference Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Large Truck Crash Risk,
Causation, & Prevention
Ronald R. Knipling, Ph.D.
Safety Consultant & Trainer
Arlington, Virginia, USA
[email protected]
www.safetyforthelonghaul.com
IRU Academy FADEEAC International Conference
Buenos Aires, Argentina -- April 5, 2011
Today’s Topics
• Crash risk
– High-risk drivers
– High-risk road conditions
• Proximal (immediate)
crash causes
• The “Crash Trifecta”
• Driver & management
training
• Vehicle-based safety
technologies
• Active carrier safety
management.
Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes
Crash Risk Factors
• Risk Factors:
– Driver:
• Enduring
• Temporary
– Vehicle
– Roadway/Environment
• Proximal Causes:
– Driver
– Vehicle
– Roadway/Environmental
Crash Risk Factors
Driver Factors:
Other Factors:
Enduring driver traits; e.g.,
Vehicle deficiencies; e.g.,
• Age
• Personality (e.g., aggressive,
impulsive)
• Risk perception & attitudes
• Medical conditions
Temporary driver states;
e.g.,
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Prior sleep
Circadian rhythms
Moods
Medications &
drugs
• Brakes
• Tires
• Lighting
Roadway; e.g.,
• Undivided roads
• Dense traffic
• Curves
Naturalistic Driving (Instrumented
Vehicle) Study Near-Crash
[Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]
Truck Naturalistic Driving Data
on At-Fault Traffic Conflicts of 95 Drivers
Driver Risk Frequency Distribution
Number of Drivers (N = 95)
60
Skewed Distribution:
Many good drivers but
a few bad & very bad drivers
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
0.1 to 3
3.1 to 6
6.1 to 9
9.1 to 12
At-Fault Traffic Conflicts Per 100 Hours Driving
12+
High- & Low-Risk CMV Drivers
Relative Exposure & Risk for High & Low Risk Groups
19%
53%
81%
47%
Hours of Driving
At-Fault Events
Risk Odds Ratio = 4.9
Safety Manager Survey Results:
Driver Factors Associated with Risk
1. Aggressive/angry
Personality &
2. Impatient/impulsive
Risk Attitudes
3. Inattentive
4. Inexperienced (new driver)
5. Unhappy with job/company
6. Young (< 25)
7. Sleep disorder; e.g., sleep apnea
8. Unhappy marriage/family
9. Debt/financial problems
10. Medical condition; e.g., heart
Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes
Relative Exposure & Risk:
Undivided & Divided Highways
Undivided
10%
38%
Divided
90%
62%
Odds ratio = 5.3
Exposure
Traffic Conflicts
Other high-risk roadway conditions include dense traffic
& work zones
High-Risk Road Locations & Conditions
• Single-vehicle crashes:
– Narrow roads
– Curves
– Ramps
• Multi-vehicle crashes:
– Undivided roads
– Heavy traffic
– Work zones:
• ~13% of serious crashes
• <1% of driving exposure
• Risk increase > 20X
Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS)
Percentages for Truck At-Fault Crashes
CR Category
Examples
Driver Physical Failure
• Asleep-at-the-wheel
• Heart attack
• Other physical impairment
12%
Driver Recognition
Failure
• Inattention
• Distraction (internal or external)
• “Looked but did not see”
30%
Driver Decision Error
• Too fast for conditions
• Following too closely
• Misjudgment or false assumption
40%
Driver Response
Execution Error
• Overcompensation
• Poor vehicle control/maneuvering
• Panic/freezing
6%
Vehicle Failure
• Brake failure
• Tire failure
• Cargo shift
Roadway/ Environment
• Road signs/signals missing
• Road design
• Weather and/or slick roads
DRIVER ERROR = 88%!!!
%
10%
2%
Convergence of Events Causing Crashes
Adapted from Reason (1990)
and Short et al. (2007).
Crash “Tri-Fecta”
Frequently Seen in Crashes & Near-Crashes
1. Misbehavior:
Unsafe pre-event
behavior
2. Mistake: Transient
driver inattention
3. Unexpected traffic
event.
Crash Example
[Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]
Collision Warning Systems
• Forward Collision
Warning
(with Adaptive
Cruise Control)
• Side Object
Detection
(Lane Change/Merge
Warnings)
• Lane Departure
Warning
• Backing Collision
Warning
(Rear-Object Detection)
Courtesy Iteris, Inc.
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IVBSS Collision Warning Systems;
e.g., Side Object, Forward, & Lane Departure
Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety System (IVBSS) Truck Configuration
Large Truck Safety Technologies:
Estimated Returns On Investments (ROIs)*
Vehicle-Based
Crash Avoidance System
Estimated
5-Year ROI
per $1.00
Forward Collision Warning
$4.28
Lane Departure Warning
$3.96
Roll Stability Control
$5.51
*
FMCSA Benefit-Cost Analysis of Onboard Safety Systems.
Tech Brief No. FMCSA-RRT-09-023 based on ATRI research.
February 2009.
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Carrier safety manager: the most
important person in truck safety!
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Driver selection
Training
Evaluation
Behavioral management:
– Rewards
– Discipline & remediation
• Vehicle technologies & maintenance
• Risk avoidance; e.g., dispatching & routing.
Safety Management:
Comprehensive and Targeted
Principal Target for
Improved Safety
KSA (Knowledge, Skill, Attitude) 3-Legged Stool:
Basic Elements of Driver Behavior & Training
Attitudes:
(a)Hard to change (related to personality)
(b)Often lead to worst crashes
Carrier Safety Manager Training & Development
Safety Knowledge:
Supervisory Skills:
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Regulatory compliance
Crash risk factors
Crash causes
Crash investigation
Vehicle maintenance
Safety technologies
Driver selection
Driver training
Driver fatigue, scheduling
& dispatching
• Behavioral safety
management.
Planning
Controlling
Problem solving
Monitoring performance
Training & coaching
Rewarding & disciplining
Managing time
Oral communication
Written communication
Self-development
Representing company.
What motivates carrier safety?
Safety Culture Study Carrier Survey Results
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Reduce crashes & injuries
Set high industry safety standard
Decrease insurance costs
Avoid costly lawsuits
Avoid enforcement penalties
Attract & retain drivers
Attract & retain customers.
* Short, J. et al. Synthesis 14: The Role of Safety Culture
in Preventing CMV Crashes. TRB Truck & Bus Synthesis
Program, 2007.
The Business Model of Truck Safety
Business Benefits of Safety:
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Reduced costs
Improved productivity
Enhanced quality
Improved employee:
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Relations
Morale
Retention
Off-the-job safety awareness
• Better organizational image
• Organizational pride.
Freight Revenue Needed to
Compensate for Crash Loss
Company Profit
Margin:
Crash Loss:
1%
3%
5%
$1,000
$100,000
$33,000
$20,000
$25,000
$2.5 Million
$833,000
$500,000
$1 Million $100 Million $33.3 Million
$20 Million
Compliance with Regulations PLUS
Active “Beyond Compliance” Carrier Management
Safety for the Long Haul
Large Truck Crash Risk, Causation, & Prevention
• Publisher: ATA
• 13 chapters encompassing:
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Basic crash concepts
Risk
Causation
Countermeasures
Safety management
National policy.
• Target audiences:
– Carrier safety managers
– Government & industry officials
– Students
• Availability:
www.atabusinesssolutions.com/
Thanks for your attention!
Ron Knipling
(703) 533-2895
[email protected]
www.safetyforthelonghaul.com
Website information & downloads:
• Book overview & detailed outline
• Training seminar information
• Crash & risk analysis guide
• Publications:
– Safety management reports
– Safety research
– Articles on truck safety
• Presentations.