Transcript World Energy Outlook 2013 Timur Gül Directorate of Global Energy Economics, IEA Geneva, 21 November © OECD/IEA 2013

World Energy Outlook 2013
Timur Gül
Directorate of Global Energy Economics, IEA
Geneva, 21 November
© OECD/IEA 2013
The world energy scene today
 Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten
 Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters…
 … and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand
 New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources
 But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce
 Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO2 emissions continue to rise
 Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012
 1.3 billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack clean cooking facilities
 Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers
 Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history
 Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity
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The engine of energy demand growth
moves to South Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
Share of global growth
2012-2035
Eurasia
Latin
America
Europe
1 370
United
States
4 060
2 240
Middle 1 050
East
Brazil
480
1 030
Africa
1 540
5% 4%
8%
China
1 710
Eurasia OECD
1 000
Africa
440
Japan
Southeast
Asia
8%
Middle 10%
East
65%
India
Non-OECD
Asia
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade,
but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
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A mix that is slow to change
Growth in total primary energy demand
1987-2011
Gas
2011-2035
Coal
Renewables
Oil
Nuclear
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
Mtoe
Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years
ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
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Emissions off track in the run-up
to the 2015 climate summit in France
Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions
Total emissions
1900-2035
Gt 800
600
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
49%
OECD
400
200
OECD
51%
1900
-1929
1930
-1959
1960
-1989
1990
-2012
2013
-2035
Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions,
although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD
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Two chapters to the oil production story
Contributions to global oil production growth
Conventional:
2013-2025
Middle East
2025-2035
Brazil
Rest of the world
Unconventional:
2013-2025
Light tight oil
Oil sands, extra-heavy oil,
coal/gas-to-liquids, & other
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
mb/d
The United States (light tight oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up until the mid-2020s,
but the Middle East is critical to the longer-term oil outlook
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A reorientation of Eurasian energy trade
Fossil fuel net import demand (Mtoe)
Asia
1500
1250
Europe
1000
Asia
750
750
500
500
250
250
2011
2035
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
Demand is pulling Eurasia’s energy exports eastwards, but major investments in the
upstream and in infrastructure are required to break into expanding Asian markets
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LNG from the United States
can shake up gas markets
Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices)
$/MBtu
18
15
12
$/MBtu
12
9
9
6
6
3
3
To Asia
Average import price
Liquefaction, shipping
& regasification
United States price
To Europe
New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global
market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
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Who has the energy to compete?
Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States
Natural gas
Electricity
5×
Reduction
from 2013
4×
2035
2013
2003
3×
2003
2×
United States
Japan
European
Union
China
Japan
European
Union
China
Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels
but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist
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Energy-intensive industries
need to count their costs
Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Petrochemicals
Fertilisers
Aluminium
Cement
Iron & steel
Pulp & paper
Glass
Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value
added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use.
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An energy boost to the economy?
Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods
+3%
European Union
+1%
Today
36%
10%
+2%
+2%
7%
3%
2%
China
Middle East
India
Japan
7%
United States
-3%
-10%
The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share
for energy-intensive goods, while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline
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Orientation for a fast-changing energy world
 China, then India, drive the growing dominance of Asia in global
energy demand & trade, with implications for Eurasian exports
 Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East
remains central to the longer-term outlook
 Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are here
to stay, but there are ways to react – with efficiency first in line
 The transition to a more efficient, low-carbon energy sector
is more difficult in tough economic times, but no less urgent
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