World Energy Outlook 2013 Timur Gül Directorate of Global Energy Economics, IEA Geneva, 21 November © OECD/IEA 2013
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Transcript World Energy Outlook 2013 Timur Gül Directorate of Global Energy Economics, IEA Geneva, 21 November © OECD/IEA 2013
World Energy Outlook 2013
Timur Gül
Directorate of Global Energy Economics, IEA
Geneva, 21 November
© OECD/IEA 2013
The world energy scene today
Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten
Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters…
… and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand
New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources
But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce
Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO2 emissions continue to rise
Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012
1.3 billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack clean cooking facilities
Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers
Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history
Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity
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The engine of energy demand growth
moves to South Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
Share of global growth
2012-2035
Eurasia
Latin
America
Europe
1 370
United
States
4 060
2 240
Middle 1 050
East
Brazil
480
1 030
Africa
1 540
5% 4%
8%
China
1 710
Eurasia OECD
1 000
Africa
440
Japan
Southeast
Asia
8%
Middle 10%
East
65%
India
Non-OECD
Asia
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade,
but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
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A mix that is slow to change
Growth in total primary energy demand
1987-2011
Gas
2011-2035
Coal
Renewables
Oil
Nuclear
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
Mtoe
Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years
ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
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Emissions off track in the run-up
to the 2015 climate summit in France
Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions
Total emissions
1900-2035
Gt 800
600
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
49%
OECD
400
200
OECD
51%
1900
-1929
1930
-1959
1960
-1989
1990
-2012
2013
-2035
Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions,
although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD
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Two chapters to the oil production story
Contributions to global oil production growth
Conventional:
2013-2025
Middle East
2025-2035
Brazil
Rest of the world
Unconventional:
2013-2025
Light tight oil
Oil sands, extra-heavy oil,
coal/gas-to-liquids, & other
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
mb/d
The United States (light tight oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up until the mid-2020s,
but the Middle East is critical to the longer-term oil outlook
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A reorientation of Eurasian energy trade
Fossil fuel net import demand (Mtoe)
Asia
1500
1250
Europe
1000
Asia
750
750
500
500
250
250
2011
2035
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
Demand is pulling Eurasia’s energy exports eastwards, but major investments in the
upstream and in infrastructure are required to break into expanding Asian markets
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LNG from the United States
can shake up gas markets
Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices)
$/MBtu
18
15
12
$/MBtu
12
9
9
6
6
3
3
To Asia
Average import price
Liquefaction, shipping
& regasification
United States price
To Europe
New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global
market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
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Who has the energy to compete?
Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States
Natural gas
Electricity
5×
Reduction
from 2013
4×
2035
2013
2003
3×
2003
2×
United States
Japan
European
Union
China
Japan
European
Union
China
Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels
but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persist
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Energy-intensive industries
need to count their costs
Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Petrochemicals
Fertilisers
Aluminium
Cement
Iron & steel
Pulp & paper
Glass
Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value
added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use.
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An energy boost to the economy?
Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods
+3%
European Union
+1%
Today
36%
10%
+2%
+2%
7%
3%
2%
China
Middle East
India
Japan
7%
United States
-3%
-10%
The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share
for energy-intensive goods, while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline
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Orientation for a fast-changing energy world
China, then India, drive the growing dominance of Asia in global
energy demand & trade, with implications for Eurasian exports
Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East
remains central to the longer-term outlook
Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are here
to stay, but there are ways to react – with efficiency first in line
The transition to a more efficient, low-carbon energy sector
is more difficult in tough economic times, but no less urgent
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