Transcript Regional Seminar on Developing a Program for the Implementation of the 2008 SNA and Supporting Statistics Dr.

Regional Seminar on Developing a Program
for the Implementation of the 2008 SNA and
Supporting Statistics
Dr. Cem BAŞ
11-13 September 2013
Ankara - Turkey
Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
for the Implementation of the
2008 SNA and Supporting Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Definition
• CPI History in Turkey
• CPI Coverage
• Coverage by Numbers
• Classification
• Data Sources
• Sampling
• CPI weights (2013)
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• Prices
• Index Aggregation Formula
• Reference Period
• Laspeyres Aggregation
• Annual Update System
• Dissemination
• CPI Uses in Turkey
• Future Plans
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Definition
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an economic indicator that measure the
change over time of the prices of consumer goods and services acquired by
households
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes the current retail prices
of commodities purchased by a group of consumers over a given time
period. 2003 based CPI is aimed to calculate the inflation rate by using the
change of the prices of goods and services existed in the market. For this
purpose, expenditures of households, foreign visitors, constitutional
population and all the final monetary expenditures are taken into account.
This concept left the owner occupied housing and expenditures from
household production out of the coverage from the consumption
expenditures.
•11/6/2015
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
CPI History in Turkey
•
CPI’s only for Ankara and Istanbul (goes back to 1938)
•
1978-79 = 100 Based Urban Areas CPI
•
1987 = 100 Based Urban Areas CPI
•
1994 = 100 Based Urban Areas CPI
•
2003 = 100 Based CPI for Turkey (all areas) (chained)
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
CPI Coverage
Geographical coverage: All country
2003=100 Based CPI,
•
•
•
All residential households,
Non-residential households (tourists)
Institutional population living in prisons, barracks, dormitories etc…
The target statistical universe is the 'household final monetary consumption
expenditure' (HFMCE) within the economic territories of the countries
compiling the HICP. The household sector to which the definition refers
includes all individuals or groups of individuals irrespective of, in particular,
the type of area in which they live, their position in the income distribution
and their nationality or residence status.
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Coverage Information by Numbers
• Number of items in the CPI basket
:
• Total number of items at variety level:
443
1083
• Number of outlets
:
27 500
• Number of tenants
:
4 552
• Number of settlements (province)
:
81
(sub-city)
:
74
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Classification
Index structure is based upon: COICOP (12 main groups)
• CPI with reference year 2003=100
• CPI is calculated for all Turkey and for 26 regions
• Sources are HBS, Tourism Survey, Institutional Population’s
Expenditures Survey and Official Registrations
Exclusions are:
• Consumption from household’s own production
• Goods received as income in kind or free of charge
• Imputed rent
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
CPI Basket
The basket of CPI consist of selected goods and services
whose prices are derived by price collectors.
The main sources of the basket are:
Household Budget Survey
Administrative data (Mobile phone tariffs and varieties,
tickets for railways and airways, models and brands of
cars, newspapers, magazines…)
•11/6/2015
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Data Sources (Weights)
Household Budget Survey (Turkey and 26 regions):
• To get data on the determination of the commodities and
weights for the consumer price indices,
• To monitor the changes of households’ consumption
patterns,
• To collect data on income distribution,
• Determination of number and level of poor people
• To obtain required data for analysis on households’ living
standards, feeding problems, calculations on minimum
wage and other social and economic analysis.
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Data Sources (Weights)
Household Budget Survey:
• Household information was compiled
by interview, diary keeping and
observation methods.
• Each interviewer recorded the data on consumption
expenditures and income of 6 sample households monthly
on average as a result of 8 times of visit including 1 visit
prior to the survey month, twice during the first and
second weeks, once during the third and fourth weeks
and once following the end of the survey month.
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Data Sources (Weights)
Weights for calculating CPI in a given year are mainly
based on the data from the HBS (%90).
These data are also supplemented and verified using
other statistical sources. Such as; tourist expenditure
survey (%9), special survey for institutional population
(%1) and non-statistical sources (administrative data).
•11/6/2015
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Data Sources (Weights)
At the first step of weighting structure, commodities produced
by households for own consumption, imputed rents from
dwellings resided by owners and income in-kind excluded.
For the insurance and games of chance net consumption
application is used.
For fresh-fruit and vegetables and clothing-footwear basic
heading’s items and variaties seasonal weight approach is used.
The weights of basic headings, classes, sub groups and main
groups are fixed all of year.
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Data Sources (Weights)
After this step, the basket of CPI is obtained and then the
weighting structure of both for Turkey and 26 regions are
constituted.
The consumption of tourists
and the consumption
expenditures of institutional population are then added to
12 main groups.
Administrative data are used for some specific varieties
like mobile and stationary phone calling fees, newspapers
etc…
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Data Sources (Weights)
w
i

i
i
0
0
pq
n
i
i
i 1
0
0
p q
x100
•
•
•
•
•
p0 :
q0 :
w
n:
i:
Base year price
Base year quantitiy
: Weight
Total variable- item-… number
Item, basic heading, class….
At the final step, these weighting strustures are priceupdated to December t-1. For the weights to be used
in 2013, 2011 weights coming from HBS data are price
updated by the ratio of December 2012 over average
of 2011 in 5 digit COICOP level.
•11/6/2015
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Data Sources (Weights)
2009
2010
2011
2012 December
•Price update in the
CIOCOP 5 level
• Month to month
•+
•2012 December CPI /
2011 Average CPI
•development rates are
used in price-update
•Rate of change in CPI
in the general level
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•Tourism survey and institutional
population consumption survey
(COICOP 2 level)
•Final weighting
structre of CPI
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
CPI Weights (2013)
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
24,09
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco
5,07
Clothing and footwear
6,83
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels
16,68
Furnishings, household equipment, routine maintenance of the
house
7,28
Health
2,22
Transport
17,99
Communications
4,64
Recreation and culture
2,95
Education
1,91
Hotels, cafes and restaurants
6,18
Miscellaneous goods and services
4,16
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Sampling
 Identify new items that have a significant share of consumption, i.e.
0.1 % of the expenditures covered in the main heading code.
– Important to look for new types of items and services, i.e. I-pad, download
music, etc
– Introduce as early as possible – capture the price decrease
 Cut-off sampling in the item and elementary aggragate (variety)
levels
 Every December all of basket, weights, and definitions are renewed
both for Turkey and 26 regions. Regions, outlets, number of price
observations, number of renters are reviewed and if there are some
requirements they are changed.
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Prices
Price coverage of index is constituted of purchasing prices.
The prices of goods and services included within the index are
retail prices including taxes but excluding any deposits and
installments.
• Fresh fruits / vegetables, LPG every week, 4 times a month
• Oil and diesel daily,
• Rents once in three months (at latest)
• Other goods and services twice a months
• Each month approximately 375 000 prices
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Prices
• Rents and the elementray aggregate (variaties) prices
are calculated by using Jevon Index (geometric average).
• P : Price of elementary aggregates (variaty)
• i : Elementary aggregate
• n : Number of prices in the elementary aggregate in the
same Region
Pgeomean 
n
n
P
i
i 1
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Laspeyres Aggregation in CPI
Current price (Pt)
(monthly price for
the year t)
I
i
t 1,t
P
  w * *100
P
i
Prices updated
from t-2
to
December (t-1)
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t
i
0
i
0
i
Base price (P0)
December(t-1)
Weight (W)
December (t-1)
Elementary
aggregate
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Index Aggregation Formula
Elementary aggregate: Jevon (geometric mean)
Index Formula: Chained Laspeyres
Weights and coverage are updated every year.
I
i
0:t ( m )
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I
i
0:t 1
I
I0:t
I0:t-1
i
Dec ( t 1):t ( m)
/ 100
: index of current month
: the last cahined index
(Dec.) of ref. year
IDec(t-1):t(m): Dec (t-1)=100 index
of current month
i
: index level (item,
basic heading, class,
etc.)
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Reference Period
Index reference year: 2003
December t-1 (chain procedure)
Weight reference period : t-2  December t-1
(e.g. 2011 for 2013)
Price reference period : December t-1
(e.g. December of 2011 for 2012)
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Annual Update System
•Underlying
inflation
•Update
taxes, etc
•Update
databases,
tables, etc.
•Annual
chaining
•December
= 100
•Revised
December
index
•11/6/2015
•Update the
sample of
outlets
•Revise
the
weights
•Update the
basket of
goods
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23/3
Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Dissemination
• Results of the CPI are announced to the public in the 3rd
day or consequent working day of the month at 10:00
with a news bulletin.
• The data are disseminated simultaneously to all
interested parties through a database and news
bulletin.
• 9 core inflation calculated by using
exclusion method are also published in
news bulletins.
•11/6/2015
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
CPI Uses in Turkey
• A measure of inflation as it affects households
• Adjustment factor for indexation of prices,
wages and other payments
• Deflation of series in nominal terms to derive
“real” terms
• Estimation of the cost of living
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Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Plans
• Constructing new based CPI with more detailed HBS and
administrative data
• Using Tablet pc for price collection
• Using scanner data
• Including the internet purchasing in CPI
• Class-confined seasonal weight and strict seasonal weight
approaches are studied,
• New sampling techniques are used for selection of settlements,
outlets, brands etc…
•11/6/2015
•26
Regional Seminar on Developing A Program
National Seminar on Developing A Program
for
the Implementation of the of the
for2008
the
Implementation
SNA and Supporting Statistics in Turkey
10 September
2013 / Ankara - Turkey
2008 SNA
and Supporting
Statistics
11-13 September 2013 / Ankara – Turkey
Thank you for your attention
•11/6/2015
•27