Climate Change and Its Effects on Water Quality and Quantity: The Escalating Need for Conflict Management

Introduction

• There is a growing likelihood that the number and frequency of trans-national conflicts over shared water resources will increase in the near future.

• This likelihood may be exacerbated by the impacts of global climate change.

Global Water Shortages

• To understand the nature of the crisis, it is essential to understand that very little of the earth’s water is available for use by all of the species that inhabit the planet.

• 70% of the earth’s surface is covered by water.

• However, 97% of the world’s water is saline.

• Of the remaining 3%, 75% locked-up in glaciers and ice.

• 25% may be available.

• Of the 25% that is available: • 0.03% is in rivers • 0.06% is in soils • 0.3% is in lakes • 11 % is in shallow groundwater (< 2500 foot depth) • 14% is in deep groundwater (> 2500 foot depth)

Two primary reasons for the pending global water shortage: Growth of demand and reduction of supply Growth of demand

• Population growth: Since 1950, renewable water supplies per capita have fallen 50% due entirely to population growth.

• Increasing per capita demand, especially in urbanizing areas.

• Per capita consumption: – US: 1,700 meters 3 /year (1,230 gallons/day ) – Domestic water use in US approximately 176 gallons/day – Canada higher at 209 gallons/day

• Per capita consumption (continued): – Europe: 1,300 meters 3 /year (940 gallons/day) – Africa: 250 meters 3 /year – Domestic water use: • Mozambique: 3 gallons/day • Ghana: 9 gallons/day • Since 1940, per capita consumption in Africa has increased faster than population.

• Increasing industrial use - need for economic development • Increasing irrigated agriculture, especially in parts of world where water supplies may already be inadequate.

Reduction of Supplies • Contamination of existing supplies (especially ground water) • “Mining” of ground water (utilization of “fossil” ground water)

Reduction of Supplies (continued) • Climate change - present global warming models indicate likelihood of: – Significant reduction of water supplies in areas which have had abundant supplies – Less rainfall, need for more intensive irrigation, potential for conflicts between users

Future shortages • By 2025, 48 countries expected to face water supply shortages: – 19 will be water stressed: annual water supplies of between 1,700 and 1,000 meters 3 /person – 29 will be water scarce: annual water supplies of less than 1,000 meters 3 /person • Total population total of 2.8 billion people (35% of projected world population) will live under water short conditions.

World Bank study: • Child born in 1960 in North Africa - available water supply approximately 3,430 meters 3 /person • When child reaches 65 years old in 2025 - available water supply will be approximately 667 meters 3 /person • Reduction of approximately 80%

• By 2050: – 54 countries expected to face water shortages – Total population of 4 billion people (40% of projected world population) will live under water short conditions

From Postel & Wolf, Dehydrating Conflict,

Foreign Policy

, October/November (2001).

Strategic Implications

• 1998 Johns Hopkins’ study: “A water-short world is an inherently unstable world.” • Potential for conflict – National: – Situation: chronic water shortages in different areas of a single country • China – chronic water shortages throughout the northern part of the country • India – 19 major Indian cities face chronic water shortages

• Potential for conflict – National (continued): – Trigger: Reduced supplies to downstream areas of over-utilized rivers • July 2000 – police and farmers clashed in Chinese province of Shandong over plans to reallocate irrigation supplies • Lower Indus – conflict between Punjab and Sind provinces over water has been ongoing

• Potential for conflict – National (continued): – Areas where conflict potential greatest • Asia (60% of world population, 36% of renewable supplies of freshwater, heavily dependent on irrigation, future municipal supplies likely to come from irrigation water supplies) • China, India, Iran and Pakistan (increasing depletion of groundwater, reduced or increasingly variable surface water flows, buildup of salts in soils, “zero sum game” in water management)

• Potential for conflict – International: – Situation: Nearly 100 countries share just 13 major rivers and lakes – In Africa alone there are some 50 rivers that are shared by two or more countries – Some 261 rivers cross international boundaries – These shared watersheds contain 60% of the world’s renewable supplies of freshwater – These watersheds also contain approximately 40% of the global population

• Potential for conflict – International (continued): – Triggers: • unilateral action to change the hydrology of a trans national water resources • existing international institutions unable to respond to the change • conflict potential is greatest if both are present • greater the size of the unilateral action, greater the potential for conflict

• Potential for conflict – International (continued): – Postel and Wolf: A unilateral action affecting other countries “is highly destabilizing to a region, often spurring decades of hostility before cooperation is pursued.” – During the 20th century, there were 37 recorded incidents regarding water supplies where dams have been destroyed, shots have been fired or there has been some other form of military action.

• Potential for conflict – International (continued): – Proposed diversions from the headwaters of the Jordan River resulted in armed clashes between Syria and Israel between March of 1965 and July of 1966 – India’s rechanneling of the Ganges resulted in reduced flows in Bangladesh and 20 years of intermittent hostility (also included increased immigration from Bangladesh to India)

• Potential for conflict – International (continued): – Potential for conflict is greatest wherever there are shared water resources, such as the Salween River: • Arises in China, flows into Myanmar, then into Thailand • Each country has water development plans • Plans are not mutually compatible • No institutional capacity to resolve the conflict – Postel and Wolf: 51 countries sharing 17 river basins on 5 continents are “spiraling toward water disputes”

From Postel & Wolf, Dehydrating Conflict,

Foreign Policy

, October/November (2001).

The Escalating Need for Conflict Management

• At both the national and the international levels, there will be increasing conflict among different water users.

• Such conflicts are never resolved.

• The need is for conflict management. • Four key components

• Four key components (continued) 1.

Reduction of demand • More efficient use of water resources (improved irrigation systems, municipal and industrial systems designed to minimize water requirements) • Population stabilization

• Four key components (continued) 2.

Increase of supply • Potential for desalinization (but must consider energy costs and waste disposal issues) • Climate change may make additional water supplies available in some parts of the world

• Four key components (continued) 3.

Recognition and control of the destabilizing impacts of unilateral actions.

• World Bank funding policies (also regional development banks) • Dialogue among stakeholders (sustainable water management and best practices, Switzerland, April 2002) • Political pressure and economic incentives • Economic development initiatives

• Four key components (continued) 4.

Development of new multilateral institutions • 1997 Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigable Uses of International Watercourses – Incorporated concept of “equitable utilization” of shared water resources – Based in part on the equitable apportionment decisions of the United States Supreme court

4.

Development of new multilateral institutions (continued)

• Four key components (continued) 4.

Development of new multilateral institutions • Utton Center at the University of New Mexico (October 2002 conference to begin the process of drafting a model ground water agreement) • Similar American Society of Civil Engineers initiative • “Neutral Corner” at the University of Dundee