Transcript Dr.Taras Kuzio Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, George Washington University, 2 June 2010

Dr.Taras Kuzio
Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian
Studies, George Washington University,
2 June 2010
Low trust in state
institutions and public
disillusionment in
political leaders.
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Approval of Change to Democracy:
1991: 72%
2009: 30% (-42)
Approval of Change to Market Economy:
1991: 52%
2009: 36% (-16)
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“I will now name several prominent politicians. For each of these, please tell me whether you have very positive, somewhat positive,
somewhat negative, or very negative impressions of the politician?” (n=1,498)
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Ukrainian voters unenthusiastic about 2010
elections;
 Comparison with Round 2, December 2004:
1. Yanukovych: half million fewer votes;
2. Tymoshenko: 3.5 million fewer votes;
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Yanukovych Victory:
1. first president to not win 50% of vote;
2. won same number of administrative regions
as in 2004 (10 out of 27);
3. won by only 3.5% (8-16%, 1994-2004 elec.)
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Return to presidential
rule and weak opposition
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Constitution Infringed:
Constitutional Court
contradicted its own 2008 ruling
that only factions could form
coalitions.
parliamentary system becomes
semi-authoritarian presidential
system;
overturn election results inside
parliament;
foreign military bases.
Party of Regions: Ukraine’s first
ruling party.
Opposition: weak, lacks leaders,
divided, viewed by authorities as
illegitimate.
Return to media censorship.
The Donetski are Returning Ukraine to the
Soviet Union
AntyTila
Kyiv rock band
Political corruption, ‘is the
main obstacle for the
further development of
Ukraine as a full blown
democratic state’.
Ukrainian (Razumkov) Centre for
Economic and Political Studies
Political Corruption
Razumkov
Centre
2009
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Not independent of oligarchs.
Oligarchs and gas lobby dominate Party of
Regions.
Akhmetov: wealthiest person in Eurasia and
Europe (2008).
Never espoused anti-oligarch rhetoric.
Continued support for economy dominated
by big business.
Preference for non-transparent (insider)
privatisation.
Corrupt Kyiv Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky
supported Yanukovych in the 2010
elections.
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Political Corruption
Consequences
2005-2008: gas lobby
becomes main financier of
pro-Russian Party of
Regions;
Gas lobby provide greater
financial resources for
Yanukovych election
campaign than oligarchs;
President Yanukovych: gas
lobby run presidential
administration, foreign
ministry and SBU;
‘Corruption in the gas
industry is the factor
most responsible for
driving the revolution
off track’.
Andrew Wilson,
European Council on
Foreign Relations,
(Wall Street Journal,
28 January 2009)
07/11/2015
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Committee Defence of
Ukraine (10 May).
Brings together most,
but not all opposition.
Mass protests outside
and inside parliament.
BYuT and Svoboda are
main protestors.
But, Yushchenko still
anti-Tymoshenko.
Opposition
Riot in Parliament over
BSF Treaty Ratification
CounterRevolution:
Yanukovych
Administration
Overturning
Nationality
Policies of Three
Presidents
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Sovietophile and
russophileviews.
Believes Galicians are
‘not real Ukrainians’.
Supports re-writing of
history textbooks jointly
with Russia.
Reverse three presidents
policies on education and
national identity.
Changed his views on
famine as a genocide in
the Kuchma era to not a
genocide today.
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No equality of Churches: Russian Orthodox Church
has first place (inaguration);
Russian as a second state language;
Re-writing of history school textbooks: downplay
historical conflicts with Russia;
Russian view of 1933 famine as not a genocide and
not only in Ukraine;
WWII now Great Patriotic War;
OUN-UPA were Nazi collaborators: return to Soviet
era ideological negativity towards Ukrainian
nationalism.
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Stalin is Unpopular in Eastern
Ukraine: 57% oppose Erection
of Stalin Monuments,
including majority over 60
years old (76% West Ukraine)
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Return to Soviet era
equating of “Ukrainian
nationalism” with Nazism.
First begun in 2002 and
2004 elections as a
response to growth in
support of Yushchenko and
Our Ukraine.
Opposition to reconciliation
of nationalist partisans and
Soviet partisans/troops.
Revision of school
textbooks on Ukrainian
nationalism.
Slavic Unity Party Remove Symon
Petliura Street Name, May 2010, Kyiv
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Donetsk and Crimea: less than 10% Ukrainian schools.
Prime Minister Azarov (illegally) refuses to learn Ukrainian.
87% of books in Russian.
83% of journals and magazines in Russian.
67% of newspapers in Russian.
50% of television and majority of radio programmes.
Top 100 web sites in Russian, with only one third including
Ukrainian-language versions
2004, 2006, 2010 elections: Party of Regions and Yanukovych
supported Russian as a second state language.
Dropping Ukrainianisation of TV and foreign films.
Provide for regional autonomy on language policies.
Volodymyr Lytvyn (20 deputies in coalition) opposed to
radical changes in language policies.
Language policy changes will radicalise the opposition.
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Initiated and supported
GUAM regional group.
Georgia seen as a Ukrainian
ally: arms exports.
2008: supported Georgian
territorial integrity.
Never recognize separatist
enclaves.
Hostile to Russian
nationalists in the Crimea.
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President Leonid Kuchma and
Orange Political Forces
November 2004, Severdonetsk:
supported separatism.
2006 Crimean elections: For
Yanukovych bloc = Party of
Regions and 2 Russian
nationalist parties.
Support independence of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Hostile to Georgian leadership.
No need for GUAM.
Trans-Dniestr united with
Ukraine?
SBU halt operations against
separatists.
President Viktor Yanukovych
and Party of Regions
Seek to Revise or
Oppose
Ambiguous or Support
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Medvedev’s European
Security Treaty;
Extension of Black Sea
Fleet base to 2042-47;
Gas consortium with
Russia;
Recognition of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia?
Join CIS Single Economic
Space Customs Union?
Join CIS Security Treaty?
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Cooperation with
NATO Partnership for
Peace programme?
NATO membership;
EU membership?
2008 IMF Stand By
Agreement;
2009-2010 gas
contract;
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25-30 year Black Sea
Fleet (BSF) base
extension - agreed;
Additional BSF bases in
southern Ukraine?
Gas consortium;
Gazprom-Naftohaz
Ukrainy merger?
Dual citizenship?
Membership of CIS
Customs Union and CIS
Security Bloc?
Undertaken and
Proposed
Sevastopol for
“Discounted” Gas
I serve Russia
Lord
(of the country)
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No gas consortium with
Russia;
Gas pipeline modernisation
with the EU;
No gas intermediaries
(RosUkrEnergo);
Support for energy
sovereignty;
February 2007: mobilised
parliament for law blocking
transfer of pipelines.
Opposition Leader and Prime
Minister Yulia Tymoshenko
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Support gas consortium
with Russia;
Gas pipeline modernisation
with the EU and Russia;
Gas lobby supports gas
intermediaries;
Energy corruption returns:
40 bn cubic metres of gas
to be imported.
Gas subsidies in exchange
for Black Sea Fleet base
extension.
President Viktor
Yanukovych
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Supported an Autocephalous Orthodox
Church.
Supported Ukrainophile nation-building and
historiography.
NATO:
2002: backed NATO membership.
Twice requested a Membership Action Plan
in 2002 and 2004.
Ukraine became the most active CIS country
in NTO’s Partnership for Peace.
Opposed the extension of the Black Sea
Fleet base beyond 2017.
Was strongly anti-separatist in the Crimea
and saw Russian nationalists as his
enemies.
Russia recognised as a potential threat to
Ukraine’s territorial integrity in the 1990s
and in 2003 over the Tuzla island.
Launched the GUAM regional group.
Exported arms to Georgia.
Leonid Kuchma
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Ally of the Russian Orthodox Church and
opposes Ukrainian autocephaly.
Tabachnyk supports Russophile nationbuilding and historiography.
Foreign Policy:
Prefer lower levels of cooperation within
Partnership for Peace.
Opposed to NATO membership.
Support for Russian security proposals for
Europe.
Black Sea Fleet extended to 2047;
Party of Regions aligned with Russian
nationalists in the Crimea.
Russia not considered a threat to Ukraine.
Complete disinterest in GUAM.
Supported separatism in Georgia and support
Russia’s anti-Georgian stance.
Viktor Yanukovych