Transcript Workshop on MDG Monitoring Geneva, Switzerland, 8-11 November 2010 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Maria Martinho United Nations Statistics Division DESA, New York [email protected].

Workshop on MDG Monitoring
Geneva, Switzerland, 8-11 November 2010
Reconciling international and
national sources for effective
global monitoring
Maria Martinho
United Nations Statistics Division
DESA, New York
[email protected]
Reconciling international and national
sources for effective global monitoring
Outline
1. Global monitoring and the work by the Interagency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators
(IAEG)
2. Compilation of international sources
3. Improving international sources and resolving
data gaps and discrepancies
4. Next steps
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Reconciling international and national
sources for effective global monitoring
Outline
1. Global monitoring and the work by the Interagency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators
(IAEG)
2. Compilation of international sources
3. Improving international sources and resolving
data gaps and discrepancies
4. Next steps
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
IAEG on MDG Indicators
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The Inter-Agency and Expert Group (IAEG) on MDG Indicators
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Holds 2 meetings per year
Coordinated by the UN Statistics Division/DESA
Composed of representatives from:
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Over 25 specialized agencies
UN Regional commissions
National Statistical Offices
Thematic sub-groups of the IAEG
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Gender
Employment
Health
Poverty and hunger
Environment
Slums
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
IAEG and MDG monitoring
IAEG is responsible for:
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Compiling data and undertaking analysis to monitor
progress towards the MDGs at the global and regional levels
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Reporting on status of annual progress through printed
reports, progress charts, databases, etc.
●
Reviewing and preparing guidelines on methodologies and
technical issues related to the indicators
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Helping define priorities and strategies to support countries
in data collection, analysis and reporting on MDGs
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Reconciling international and national
sources for effective global monitoring
Outline
1. Global monitoring and the work by the Interagency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators
(IAEG)
2. Compilation of international sources
3. Improving international sources and resolving
data gaps and discrepancies
4. Next steps
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Revised MDG monitoring framework:
proposals by the IAEG
●
To ensure comparability across countries and regions, data used for
the global monitoring are compiled by international agencies within
their area of expertise
●
For each indicator, one or more agencies were designated to be the
official data providers and to take the lead in developing appropriate
methodologies for data collection and analysis.
●
Data are typically drawn from official statistics provided by
governments to the international agencies responsible for the
indicator, through periodic data collection from ministries and NSOs
(ex. ILO)….
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or collected through surveys sponsored and carried out by
international agencies (ex. MICS, DHS)
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Data provided by the international agencies
Indicator/series
Agency
MDGs
Other
Total
FAO
4
1
5
ILO
5
16
21
IPU
1
3
4
5
(a) compiling data for the3
8
global/regional monitoring
of MDGs7
8
ITU
OECD
15
UNAIDS
1
5
6
UNEP-Ozone
1
1
2
UNEP-WCMC
2
5
7
UNESCO
6
10
16
UNFCCC (CDIAC)
6
0
6
UN-HABITAT
1
1
2
17
7
24
UNPD
3
5
8
WB
7
4
11
WHO
9
2
11
WTO
5
0
5
79
72
151
UNICEF
17
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Data compilation:
from national sources to the MDG database
International
agency
country
office
Line Ministry
in the
country
National
Statistical
Office in the
country
Agency
Headquarters
eg. UNICEF
MDG Indicators
database
Agency
Headquarters
eg. UNESCO
60 MDG indicators +
background/additional
indicators
192 Member States
1990-2009
mdgs.un.org
Agency
Headquarters
eg. ILO
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Data availability in international sources
Indicator
Countries with at least
1 data point
Countries with at least 2
data points
Number
%
Number
%
Population below $1 (PPP) per day
118
53
96
43
Children under 5 moderately or severely underweight
138
62
116
52
Total net enrolment ratio in primary education
185
83
173
78
Literacy rates
147
66
130
58
Share of women in wage employment in non-agricultural sector
213
96
163
73
Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births
192
86
192
86
HIV prevalence among population 15-24 years old
142
64
140
63
62
28
30
13
Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 population
210
94
210
94
Proportion of the population using improved sanitation
191
86
191
86
Slum population
105
64
60
37
Condom use at last high-risk sex, women
Source: MDG Indicators Database, at mdgs.un.org, Oct 2010
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
But where are the data from?
Countries with at least
1 data point
Indicator
Number
Countries with at least 2
data points
%
Number
Country
data
%
Population below $1 (PPP) per day
118
53
96
43
Children under 5 moderately or severely underweight
138
62
116
52
Total net enrolment ratio in primary education
185
83
173
78
Literacy rates
147
66
130
58
Share of women in wage employment in non-agricultural sector
213
96
163
73
Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births
192
86
192
86
HIV prevalence among population 15-24 years old
142
64
140
63
62
28
30
13
Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 population
210
94
210
94
Proportion of the population using improved sanitation
191
86
191
86
Slum population
105
64
60
37
Modelled
Condom use at last high-risk sex, women
Source: MDG Indicators Database, at mdgs.un.org
Estimated
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Different types of data in international
data sources
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
An example: ILO, Indicator for Goal 3
Indicator 3.2. Share of women in wage employment in
the non-agricultural sector
Estimated values vs. Predicted values
a) Estimations based on auxiliary variables
• Total paid employment
• Total employment in non-agriculture
• Employees
• Total employment
• Economically Active Population in nonagriculture
Empirical analysis shows that strong correlation exits
between the indicator and the auxiliary variables.
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
An example: ILO, Indicator for Goal 3
Indicator 3.2. Share of women in wage employment in
the non-agricultural sector
Estimated values vs. Predicted values
b) Predictions based on statistical models
1. Only used to produce regional and global aggregates
2. A separate two-level model is developed for each of
the 5 regions, considering:
i. between-countries variation over time
ii. within-country variation over time
3. Based on the assumption that available data are
representative of a country’s deviation from the
average trend in its region, across time
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Reconciling international and national
sources for effective global monitoring
Outline
1. Global monitoring and the work by the Interagency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators
(IAEG)
2. Compilation of international sources
3. Improving international sources and resolving
data gaps and discrepancies
4. Next steps
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Improving international sources
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Recommendations of the friends of the Chair to
improve further the compilation of the indicators used in
the monitoring of the MDGs
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In July 2006, the Economic and Social Council adopted
its resolution 2006/6 on strengthening statistical
capacity in countries and included a set of
recommendations to improve the coverage,
transparency and reporting on all indicators
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Since then, the Inter-Agency and Expert Group has
been working to implement the recommendations of the
friends of the Chair and those contained in the
ECOSOC resolution
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Work of the IAEG
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Improve data quality and transparency of methods
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Work with countries to identify priorities in national
statistical capacity building
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Work with countries to identify best practices for
coordination within national statistical systems and for
reporting mechanisms to the international statistical
system
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Address key methodological issues, including the use of
population figures, in the computation of the indicators
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Develop improve training tools on the compilation of the
indicators
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Resolving data discrepancies
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Improve consistency and transparency in reporting and presenting
data and metadata for the international monitoring
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Adoption of the common platform for data exchange, the Statistical
Data and Metadata Exchange (SDMX)
Continue to improve the content and structure of the metadata and the
tools available on the mdgs.un.org website
The IAEG also recommended:
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To investigate the reasons for discrepancies between national and
international data, and for data gaps
To hold expert group meetings to establish strategies for dealing with
data discrepancies and data gaps at the national and international
levels.
To provide technical assistance to countries in the use of international
definitions.
To improve the process of consultation by international agencies with
countries before publishing their data.
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Improve transparency
in the MDG Indicators Database
Revised structure of metadata for MDG Indicators in the IAEG MDG
Database
CONTACT POINT in international agency
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UNSD MDG database now
presents more detailed
metadata:
– details on methodology used
to calculate indicators
– contacts for users to obtain
additional information
DEFINITION
METHODS OF COMPUTATION
COMMENTS AND LIMITATIONS
SOURCES OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
GLOBAL AND NATIONAL FIGURES
PROCESS OF OBTAINING DATA
TREATMENT OF MISSING VALUES
DATA AVAILABILITY
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL ESTIMATES
EXPECTED TIME OF RELEASE
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Reconciling international and national
sources for effective global monitoring
Outline
1. Global monitoring and the work by the Interagency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators
(IAEG)
2. Compilation of international sources
3. Improving international sources and resolving
data gaps and discrepancies
4. Next steps
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Work of the IAEG
The main objectives of the work of the group remain:
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Improving the effectiveness of capacity building activities
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Ensuring data quality and transparency, and reduce data
gaps
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Work of the IAEG
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Improving the effectiveness of capacity building
activities
The group brings together international agencies,
regional commissions and representatives of national
statistical systems to set priorities and identify ways to
improve the delivery of capacity building programmes
and promote the scaling-up of resources
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Work of the IAEG
● Ensuring data quality and transparency
Priority areas:
 Implement the recommendations by the friend of the Chair on MDG
Indicators and those in the ECOSOC resolution
 Implement the recommendations by IAEG member countries in 2006 on
coordination and reporting mechanisms (Survey to countries and
agencies on coordination and reporting)
 Address some key methodological issues, including the use of population
figures in the computation of the indicators and regional aggregates
 Continuing to improve the content and structure of the metadata and the
tools available on the website
• SDMX task team to develop the data structure for MDG Indicators
• Revision of the handbook for country reporting
• Revision of the metadata on international series and upgrading of the
database
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Work of the IAEG
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Reducing data gaps
The group has developed a plan to involve more
extensively regional commissions in data checking
purposes (discrepancies between national and
international data series) and in channelling and
following-up on specific queries on data and metadata
between national statistical systems and international
agencies
The plan also involves identifying underlying causes for
data gaps and make specific recommendations for
improvement
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Next steps
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Continue to develop the data structure for SDMX
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Develop new methodologies for the assessment of
progress
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International agencies
Countries
Global and regional level
Country level
Continue the work to assist countries develop their
system of coordination and reporting to the international
statistical system
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Workshops and EGMs on coordination practices
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010
Reconciling international and national
sources for effective global monitoring
THANK YOU
Visit mdgs.un.org
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Geneva, 8-11 November 2010