Transcript Rock & Roll versus The Oil Patch What can the decline of great music teach us about the future of energy?

Rock & Roll
versus
The Oil Patch
What can the decline of
great music teach us about
the future of energy?
 What is oil?
 A little history.
 How much do we use?
 How much is there?
 Crystal ball
Petroleum
Origin
Tiny critters and algae (zooplankton and plankton) in
oceans die, settle to seafloor and get eaten up.
•If everything is JUST RIGHT this stuff gets
preserved and converted to oil and trapped:
 GOM and Niger Delta 5-35 million years ago
 Seas that covered North America 150 million yrs ago
 Alaska’s north slope 250 million years ago
Petroleum Origin
Seal rock
Reservoir rock
Source Rock
Preserved plankton
“cooked” just right
Petroleum Origin
Oil and gas “migrate” up.
Most spills out at surface.
A small % gets “trapped”.
Oil seep
Oil and gas “migrate”
up slowly through
porous rock
Oil History
Birth of the US oil industry
1859
“Drake’s Folly”
• Titusville, Pennsylvania
• 70 foot well
• 20 bbls/day
Created an
overnight oil boom
Oil History
The “Lucas Gusher” at Spindletop –
Nine days and 800,000 bbls later,
it was under control.
Jan 10, 1901 – “Big Oil”
One well
100,000 bbls/day Tripled US production
Oil History
By 1903, more than 400 wells
had been drilled on the dome.
…optimum rig spacing ???.
Oil History
US - early production bbls per year:
1859:
1869:
1879:
1889:
1899:
1906:
2
4
20
35
50
130
thousand
Civil War
million
Rockefeller/Std Oil OH
million
Internal Combustion Engine
million
million
Spindletop
million
Oil History
Today
Our thirst for
conventional oil:
An issue of SCALE
US consumption
Global consumption
20,000,000 bbl/day
86,000,000 bbl/day
Global (all energy) 226,000,000 BOEPD
Annual global oil consumption
>30,000,000,000 bbl/year
That’s 42,000 gallons per second
How do we produce our energy?
World Energy Supply
87% fossil fuels
39%
US Energy Consumption
EIA, 2009
23%
23%
8%
3%
>3%
How do we produce energy?
US
Renewable
Energy
Geothermal
Solar/PVE 1%
8%
Waste
Wind
Hydro
35%
Biofuels
8%
Nuclear
9%
Wood
Derived
Coal
21%
Petroleum
37%
DataEIA, 2009
Natural
Gas
25%
Total Consumption
Energy Resources
What do we use it for?
Uranium
Transportation
Electricity
Conventional Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Heat
Data from EIA 2007
S. Tinker, Univ. Texas Austin Bur. Econ. Geol., AAPG, April 2008
Th, Fri: Campus Sustainability
• Assignment:
– 3 multiple choice questions
• With correct answer indicated,
• With 1-2 sentence discussion/explanation of
correct answer
In the news
Presentation Schedule
Nov 30th-Dec 3rd
• 7 minutes per total: 5 min talk + 2 min
questions
• Practice! Practice! Practice!
Paper Due- Nov 30th
Hydrocarbon Resources
CONVENTIONAL OIL
“Geological Endowment”
3 Trillion Barrels*
We’ve used
1.1 Trillion barrels
Remaining reserves
1.3 Trillion barrels
(*but we can’t get this all out)
~35 year supply
(at current consumption rates)
Into the future…
…problem - 25 Years from now:
Globally by 2035
Energy consumption
up 49%
CO2 emissions
up 43%
Oil price
up 100%
($133/bbl)
According to US Energy Information Agency (EIA)
May 25, 2010
Supply and Demand
“PEAK OIL”
Hubbert’s Peak
M. King Hubbert
1956
What
will fill
this gap?
… when ½ of
recoverable oil
has been produced
and demand outstrips
supply
Rolling Stone Magazine
Top 500 Songs
of All Time
Like a Rolling Stone
Bob Dylan
1965
Satisfaction
Rolling Stones
1965
Imagine
John Lennon
1971
What's Going On
Marvin Gaye
1971
Respect
Aretha Franklin
1965
Good Vibrations
The Beach Boys
1966
Johnny B. Goode
Chuck Berry
1958
Hey Jude
The Beatles
1968
Smells Like Teen Spirit
Nirvana
1991
What'd I Say
Ray Charles
1959
Supply and Demand
Rock & Roll versus Oil
“Peak Rock”
Have we
exhausted all
of the good
music?
What fills
the Gap?
Alternative Music
Hip Hop
Gothic
Rock
Rave
Straightedge
Rap
Acid Jazz
Punk
Post punk
Grunge
Brit Pop
Jam
Shoegazing
Electronica
Indie
What will fill the gap?
According to the EIA (2010)
Biofuels will account for most growth in liquid
fuel consumption in the United States over the
next 25 years.
BUT – Fossil fuel consumption will continue at
near-current levels.
What about projected HC production declines?
Energy Resources
“Unconventional Hydrocarbons”
There is a LOT of it!
• Natural gas
• Deep Gas (+15,000’) – now conventional
• Tight Gas adds 17% to US gas resource
• Shale Gas –
adds 25%
• Coalbed Methane – adds 8%
• Methane Hydrate – 2 to 20 times global NG supply
• Unconventional (heavy) oil
• Shale Oil – 3 Trillion Barrels
• Tar Sands – 3.5 Trillion Barrels
The world has more hydrocarbons than we are likely to ever use.
Energy Resources
OIL INDUSTRY CONVERSI
Energy Resources
COAL
World reserves about 1000 BMT (billion metric tons)
Relatively evenly distributed throughout the world
U.S. reserves: 25% of the world reserves
Annual global consumption 5 BMT
(meaning the world has 200 years @ current production)
China, U.S., and Russia account for 50% of total CO2
released
Energy Resources
EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010
Things to Ponder…
The age of oil will not end
for lack of hydrocarbon resources.
The challenge:
SCALE of consumption
and of technology.
Technology will take us in new directions.
Need radical shift away from:
• internal combustion engine
• pulverized coal-fired power plants
But, must be done as technology allows.
Rushing will cost dearly.
Invest heavily – BUT CAREFULLY – in renewable energy alternatives.
In the news
Presentation Schedule- everyone sign up!
Bring your talk on a jump drive BEFORE
class time, so I can load it up
Every day of the talks: each student (that
is not presenting) will prepare 1 multiple
choice question
Graduate School Opportunity
Idaho State UniversityLooking for Masters student
Alamo Bolide Impact (Nevada), and
impact on Devonian life
Contact me
Undergraduate Research Opportunities
Science Honors Research Program
Paid summer research
www.cwu.edu/~cots/scihonors
See any Geology Faculty
Presentation Tips- preparation:
Don’t wait to the last minute to prepare your talk
When you prepare your talk, focus on what you
want people to be thinking about when they leave
You only have 7 min total- every slide counts!
Minimize the amount of text on your slides
Check for consistency in the appearance of your
slides- color, font, etc.
Presentation Tips- preparation
cont’:
From: “Scientifically Speaking- available on
class website
Presentation Tips- preparation cont’:
You only have 7 min total- every slide counts!
Minimize words
Be considerate of others, make sure your talk will
fit in the alloted time
Practice, practice, practice
Presentation Tips: The delivery
Talk to the audience, not the board
Give a roadmap of your talk at the beginning
Do not read your presentation verbatim
More Presentation Tips
http://www.projectionnet.com/styleguide/Pre
sentationStyleGuide.aspx
Energy Resources
EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010
Things to Ponder…
The age of oil will not end
for lack of hydrocarbon resources.
The challenge:
SCALE of consumption
and of technology.
Technology will take us in new directions.
Need radical shift away from:
• internal combustion engine
• pulverized coal-fired power plants
But, must be done as technology allows.
Rushing will cost dearly.
Invest heavily – BUT CAREFULLY – in renewable energy alternatives.
Some perspective (a matter of scale)
1 CMO* - what the world consumes in one year
3 CMO – total world annual energy consumption
Alternative Replacements for 1 CMO
Source*
Large
Hydro
#/year for
50 years
4
52
Coal Plants
104
PV
Cells
200
Cost
Mi2
Required
Output
per
6
488,200
1 – 20 GW
(3 over 10 GW)
Nukes
Wind
Turbines
Total
2,600
13
4,000
1000 MW
(1GW)
5,200
3.4
4,000
500 MW
32,000 1.6 Million
3.3
105,663
1.5 – 2.0
MW
4.5 Billion
68
24,662
150 watt
1kw/day
90,000,000
Data from: Crane, Hewitt; Edwin Kinderman and Ripudaman Malhotra (June 2010).
A Cubic Mile of Oil. Oxford University Press
Energy Resources
OECD - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - an international
economic organization of 33 countries founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and
world trade. It defines itself as a forum of countries committed to democracy and the
market economy, providing a setting to compare policy experiences, seeking answers to common
problems, identifying good practices, and co-ordinating domestic and international policies of its members.
Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czec Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary
Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan South Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway
Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States
EIA - the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. DoE. US premier source of energy info.
EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote
sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with
the economy and the environment. EIA is the and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are
independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government.
NPC – National Petroleum Council. Established 1946 at request of Truman. Now part of DoE and is a
Federal Advisory Commitee