Transcript America’s Energy Challenges Steven E. Koonin Under Secretary for Science US Department of Energy June 2011 http://www.energy.gov/QTR.

America’s Energy
Challenges
Steven E. Koonin
Under Secretary for Science
US Department of Energy
June 2011
http://www.energy.gov/QTR
Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2009: ~94.6 Quads
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/
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Energy Essentials
As a whole, energy is
• A big and expensive system
• In private hands
• Governed by economics, modulated
by government policies
Supply
• Fewer, long-lived centralized facilities with distribution
networks
• Change has required decades
• Power and fuels are commodities with thin margins
• Markets with government regulation and distortion
• Technology alone does not a transformation make
Demand
• Many distributed players, shorter-lived
assets
• User benefit (economics, convenience,
personal preference)
• Determined by price, standards,
behavior
• Little attention to system optimization
for stationary use
• Transport and Stationary are disjoint
• Transport is powered by oil
• Power
• Requires boiling large amounts of water
• Sized for extremes (storage is difficult)
• Numerous sources with differing…
• CapEx and OpEx
• Emissions
• Base/Peak/Intermittency
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Energy supply has changed on decadal scales
US energy supply since 1850
100%
90%
80%
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Hydro
Coal
Wood
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1850
Source: EIA
1880
1910
1940
1970
2000
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U.S. Energy Challenges
Energy Security
Daily Spot Price OK WTI
Share of Reserves Held by NOC/IOC
Competitiveness
Environment
Global Lithium-ion Battery
Manufacturing (2009)
Federal Deficit
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Administration Goals
Transport


Reduce oil imports by 1/3 by 2025 (~3.7 M bbl/day)
Put 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2015
Stationary


By 2035, generate 80% of electricity from a diverse set of clean energy
sources
Make non-residential buildings 20% more energy efficient by 2020
Environmental

Cut greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 17% below 2005 levels
by 2020, and 83% by 2050
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Six Strategies
Stationary
Transport
Supply
Demand
Deploy Clean
Electricity
Modernize the
Grid
Increase
Building and
Industrial
Efficiency
Deploy
Alternative
Fuels
Progressively
Electrify the
Fleet
Increase
Vehicle
Efficiency
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Trends in Car and Light-Duty Truck Average Attributes showing changes in
customer preferences, data from (EPA2010)
8
Cumulative retail price equivalent and fuel consumption reduction relative to
2007 for spark ignition powertrain without hybridization (NRC2010)
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Six Strategies
Stationary
Transport
Supply
Demand
Deploy Clean
Electricity
Modernize the
Grid
Increase
Building and
Industrial
Efficiency
Deploy
Alternative
Fuels
Progressively
Electrify the
Fleet
Increase
Vehicle
Efficiency
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Progressively Electrify the Fleet
Internal
Combustion
Engine (ICE)
Hybrid Electric
Vehicle (HEV)
Plug-in Electric
Hybrid Vehicle
(PHEV)
Battery Electric
Vehicle (BEV)
Challenges with Batteries and Motors
Batteries
• Cost
• Performance
• Physical Characteristics
Adequate supply chain
Charging
• Rare-earth elements in
permanent magnet motors
• Lithium in batteries
• OEM & component
manufacturing capacity
• Infrastructure
• Standardization of
chargers and grid interface
• Charging times
• Consumer behavior
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Battery Evolution: R&D to Commercialization
The energy storage effort is engaged in a wide range of topics,
from fundamental materials work through battery development and testing
Advanced
Materials
Research
High Energy &
High
Power Cell R&D
• High energy cathodes
• Alloy, Lithium anodes
• High voltage
• High rate electrodes
• High energy couples
• Fabrication of high E
electrolytes
• Lithium air couples
cells
• Ultracapacitor carbons
Full System
Development
And Testing
Commercialization
• Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) systems
• 10 and 40 mile Plug-in HEV systems
• Advanced lead acid
• Ultracapacitors
Lab and University Focus
Industry Focus
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Hybrid Electric Systems
Petroleum Displacement via Fuel Substitution and Improved Efficiency
Administration Goal:1 Million EVs by 2015
Types of Vehicles and Benefits
HEV
PHEV
EV
Toyota Prius
50 MPG
PHEV Battery
Cost per kW·h
System Cost
Power Electronics
Cost per kW
$1,000 - $1,200
2008
$22
$700 - $950
2010
$19
Goal = $500
2012
Goal = $17
Goal = $300
2014
Chevy Volt
>100 MPGe
Nissan Leaf
All Electric
Targets and Status
2014 PHEV: Battery that has 40-mile all-electric range
and costs $3,400
2015 Power Electronics: Cost for electric traction
system no greater than $12/kW peak by 2015
2015
Goal = $12
Status: $8,000-$11,000 for PHEV 40-mile range
battery
Status: Current cost of electric traction system is
$40/kW
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Six Strategies
Stationary
Transport
Supply
Demand
Deploy Clean
Electricity
Modernize the
Grid
Increase
Building and
Industrial
Efficiency
Deploy
Alternative
Fuels
Progressively
Electrify the
Fleet
Increase
Vehicle
Efficiency
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Deploy Advanced/Alternative Fuels
Platforms / Pathways
Cellulosic Sugar Platform
Enzymatic
Hydrolysis
Feedstock
Production
& Logistics
• Energy crops
• Agricultural
byproducts
• Waste
Streams
• Algae
• Coal
• Natural Gas
Fermentation
Sugars
Fast Pyrolysis
Upgrading
Syngas Platform
Gasification
Filtration &
Clean-up
Raw
syngas
Lipid (Oil) Platform
Algal and other
Bio-Oils
Co or By
Products
Power
Pyrolysis Oil Platform
Liquid
Bio-oil
Products
Transesterification
Catalytic Upgrading
Other enzymatic/biochemical methods
REFINING
Feedstocks
•Ethanol
•Methanol
•Butanol
•Olefins
•Aromatics
•Gasoline
•Diesel
•Jet
•Dimethyl
Ether
•Heat and
Power
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Fossil
200
So
W
oo y
dp
ulp
W
Ed
he
ib
at
le
fa
ts
M
ea /o ils
t /P
ou
l tr
y
Bi
Co
om
t
as ton
Bi
om
s
as tod
ay
sp
ot
en
tia
l
Co
rn
Pa
pe
r
700
Ls
Fuel
NG
as
ol
ine
Di
es
el
Na Co
al
tu
O
r
al
th
er
ga
pe
s
tro
leu
m
G
Annual US Carbon (Mt C)
Biomass can provide significant carbon
Agriculture
Biomass
↑ 1000
600
500
400
300
15% of Transportation
Fuels
100
0
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Six Strategies
Stationary
Transport
Supply
Demand
Deploy Clean
Electricity
Modernize the
Grid
Increase
Building and
Industrial
Efficiency
Deploy
Alternative
Fuels
Progressively
Electrify the
Fleet
Increase
Vehicle
Efficiency
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Categories of US Energy Consumption
Buildings use about 40% of total US energy
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U.S. Refrigerator Properties
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Lighting
Image: False color image of workstation 35 with overhead lights at 100% and
undercabinet light off. Calibration bar is in candelas per meter squared.
Source: http://gaia.lbl.gov/btech/papers/3831.pdf
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Solid-State Lighting
Goal : reduce 22% of nation’s total electrical energy usage by half
Basic Science
Wide Bandgap
Semiconductors
Heteroepitaxial systems
N
G
a
Theory and
modeling
of defect energies
Sandia Labs & Lumiled
Collaboration:
Cantilever Epitaxy reduces
dislocation densities 100X
(R&D 100 Award)
M
g
H
Synthesis : Chemical
Vapor
Deposition Modeling
Fundamental
understanding helps
eliminate Defects
Manufacturing/
Commercialization
Applied R&D
Key Enabler for
Manufacturing
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Lumileds (originally with HP)
General Electric
Cabot Superior Micropowders
Dow Corning
Veeco
Emcore
Cree
Bridgelux (under discussion)
Essential Tool
Development
Emcore
Discovery
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system
Sandia Labs & RPI demonstrates an
18% increase in light output
efficiency by modifying
heteroepitaxial interface
Six Strategies
Stationary
Transport
Supply
Demand
Deploy Clean
Electricity
Modernize the
Grid
Increase
Building and
Industrial
Efficiency
Deploy
Alternative
Fuels
Progressively
Electrify the
Fleet
Increase
Vehicle
Efficiency
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The U.S. Grid

The numbers



Desiderata







> 200,000 miles of transmission lines distribute approx. 1 TW of power
Over 3,500 utility organizations
Reliability
Efficiency
Security
Flexibility to integrate intermittent renewables
Two-way flow of information and power
Growth to handle growing demand
Challenges


Active management is required to balance generation, transmission, and
demand at all times
Excursion from ideal operation can be catastrophic
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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungryreinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungryreinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungryreinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungryreinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungryreinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
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Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungryreinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
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Superconducting Wire: From Science to the Grid
Basic Science
Applied R&D
Invented single crystal-like
flexible templates by the
kilometer:
Maximize current flow
(understand vortex
dynamics)
Develop
segregation
& growth
mechanisms
(new materials)
Ion Beam
Assisted
Deposition
(IBAD)
Rolling Assisted Bi-axially
Textured Substrate (RABiTS)
Understand
“quantum
effects” in film
growth
Manufacturing/
Commercialization
• Two companies are now
manufacturing kilometers of
superconducting cables based
on the IBAD and RABiTS
processes
• These are deployed in three
demonstration projects in the
grid.
2 ML
Albany, NY
Modify properties with
nanostructures
Developed epitaxial buffers:
1 mm
HTS
HTS
Buffers
Buffer
IBAD-MgO
RABiTSTM
Long Island, NY
Columbus, OH
Six Strategies
Stationary
Transport
Supply
Demand
Deploy Clean
Electricity
Modernize the
Grid
Increase
Building and
Industrial
Efficiency
Deploy
Alternative
Fuels
Progressively
Electrify the
Fleet
Increase
Vehicle
Efficiency
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Deploy Clean Electricity
Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
Nuclear Energy
Wind
Other technologies




Natural gas
Hydro
Solar thermal
(parabolic troughs)
Geothermal
Concentrating Solar Power
Carbon Capture and Storage
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US Gas Supply by Source
Unconventional
gas sources
will grow
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release
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US Renewable Generation (GWh)
Renewables are
small, but
growing rapidly,
especially wind
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release
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Renewable Electricity Costs (2009)
Coal/gas-fired ~ 3-6 cents
Nuclear ~ 7 cents
Source: 2009 Renewable Energy Data Book (EERE)
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Low Cost Solar Cells: From Fundamental
Synthesis Research to Commercialization
Basic Science
Manufacturing/
Commercialization
Applied R&D
EERE Solar America
Initiative: Established
new materials strategies
& manufacturing
methods for low-cost,
high performance
photovoltaic modules
John Rogers, Ralph
Nuzzo (co-founders)
Micro-Contact Printed
Solar Cells
Industrial collaborations
Basic research focused
on materials-centric
aspects of a microtransfer printing
process for single
crystalline silicon and
other semiconductors,
dielectrics and metals
GaAs epi-stacks for
solar microcells
release; transfer print
AlAs release
layers
GaAs wafer
etch in HF
regrow
DOE SunShot Program
Installed Systems Price ($/W)
8
$8.00
Power Electronics
Balance of Systems (BOS)
PV Module
6
4
$3.80/W
$0.22
$1.88
2
$0.72
$1/W
$0.76
$0.80
$1.70
0
$0.12
$0.40
$0.10
$0.40
$0.50
$1/W Target
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Areas of DOE Research Focus
Materials
Non-Medical
Biology
High
Performance
Computing
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Training the next generation of innovators
Survey of 500+ DOE-supported nuclear science PhD’s (1999-2004)
1/3 government service or at national research labs
1/3 science and technology industries
1/3 educate and train the next generation of skilled workers
http://science.energy.gov/~/media/np/pdf/Accelerating_Innovation_9_01142011.pdf
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We must integrate diverse players with diverse roles

Universities


National labs


Large facilities and programs, multidisciplinary
RD&D
For-profit sector



Knowledge, people, education, credible voices
High-risk innovation, take technology to scale
Optimize under economics and regulation
Government

Consistent policies, precompetitive R&D
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QUESTIONS?/COMMENTS?
http://science.energy.gov/s-4
http://www.energy.gov/QTR
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DOE-QTR Scope
The DOE-QTR will provide a context and robust framework for the Department’s
energy programs, as well as principles by which to establish multiyear programs plans
and budgets. It will also offer high-level views of the technical status and potential of
various energy technologies.
The primary focus of the DOE-QTR process and document will be on the following:
 Framing the energy challenges
 A discussion of the roles of government, industry, national laboratories, and
universities in energy system transformation
 Summary roadmaps for advancing key energy technologies, systems, and sectors
 Principles by which the Department can judge the priority of various technology
efforts
 A discussion of support for demonstration projects
 The connections of energy technology innovation to energy policy
http://www.energy.gov/QTR
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DOE-QTR Timeline
Nov 2010
3/14 – 4/15
4/20
PCAST made
recommendations
for DOE to do QER
Public comment
period for DOE-QTR
Framing Document
First batch of public
comments released
on project website
Through mid-June
End July/Aug
Before Dec 2011
Hold workshops and
discussions of each
of the Six Strategies
Submit DOE-QTR to
White House for
approval
Release DOE-QTR
http://www.energy.gov/QTR
DOE-QTR Logic Flow
Energy context
 Supply/demand
 Energy essentials
Energy challenges
 Oil security
 US Competitiveness
 Environmental Impact
Six strategies
Players and Roles
Private/Gov’t
Within gov’t
Econ/Policy/Tech
Acad/Lab/Private
DOE portfolio principles
Technology
Assessments
 History
 Status
 Potential
Technology
Roadmaps
 Milestones
 Cost
 Schedule
 Performers
DOE priorities and portfolio
Balanced within and across strategies
Program plans and budgets
http://www.energy.gov/QTR
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