Transcript CLIMATE CHANGE Photo: NASA WHAT IS CLIMATE? Climate describes characteristics of a planet’s temperature, precipitation, wind, barometric pressure, etc.

CLIMATE CHANGE
Photo: NASA
WHAT IS CLIMATE?
Climate describes characteristics of a
planet’s temperature, precipitation, wind,
barometric pressure, etc. over long periods
Weather is the description of these on short
time scales
Climate can be thought of as the long-term
average of weather patterns
Sources: Okanagan university college in Canada, Department of geography, University of Oxford, school of geography; United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington; Climate change 1995,
The science of climate change, contribution of working group 1 to the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, UNEP and WMO, Cambridge university press, 1996
HAS CLIMATE CHANGED?
Yes.
Regardless of the cause, the global
climate has changed and continues to
change at an unusual rate.
Still, the vast majority of the scientific
community agrees that many of the
changes are human-induced.
WHAT DO WE KNOW?
Data from Climatic Research
Unit, University of East Anglia
Foster & Rahmstorf 2011
1980-2011 Temperatures with and without
ENSO, Volcanic and Solar Influences
Foster & Rahmstorf 2011
But hasn’t this
happened before?
Both temperature and CO2 have changed
cyclically over time
Jouez et al. 2007
How does the Earth’s orbit around the
sun affect the Earth’s temperature?
But, the temperatures are increasing,
while solar irradiance is decreasing
Figure: Skeptical Science
Data: NASA GISS, Met Office HadISST 1.1; Global Historical Climatology Network
CO2 Concentrations from 1000-2100
UNEP/GRID-Arendal 2005
How are Global Temperatures
expected to change?
IPCC 2007
How do we know the
climate is changing?
How do we know the climate is
changing?
We use a set of indicators including
Atmospheric
Weather
Biological & physical
Economic
Atmospheric Indicators
There have been recent sharp increases in
anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere (IPCC, 2007)
Greenhouse gas
% Increase
Lifetime
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
29
100 years
Methane (CH4)
60
12 years
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
24
114 years
Tropospheric ozone (O3)
100
3 months
CO2 Emissions from pre-industrial
to present time
Total
Petroleum
Coal
Natural gas
Cement production
Gas Flaring
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1800
1850
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2011
1900
1950
2000
Metric tons of Carbon/year (Billions
9
Weather indicators:
Temperature/Precipitation
Global average surface temperatures warmed by
0.6-0.9 °C since 1906 (NASA Earth Observatory)
Rate of temperature increase has doubled in last 50 years
NH warmest in 1000 years
More hot days & heat waves; fewer cloudy and frost days
Weather indicators:
Temperature/Precipitation
More heavy precipitation events (storms) in the
northern hemisphere
Pew Center on Global
Climate Change
NH experienced 5-10% more rainfall on average
More frequent and intense droughts in dry regions
More extreme precipitation
observed and expected globally
IPCC 2007
What may we expect
Increased duration, location, frequency, and
intensity of extreme weather events such as:
Heat waves
Droughts
Heavy precipitation and flooding
Avalanches
Tornadoes
Tropical cyclones
More powerful tropical storms?
Kerry Emanuel, MIT, 2011
Biological/physical indicators
2-4 cm in sea level rise in 20th century
Northern Hemisphere snow cover is decreasing
Mountain glaciers are melting on every continent
Arctic sea ice has decreased by 40% since the
1970s
Growing season in high latitudes 4-20 days longer
Plants, insects, fish, and birds moving further
toward poles and to higher elevations
Habitats of coldwater fish like salmon and trout are
shrinking
Global Mean Sea Level Rise
Projections
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009)
Sea level rise potential
70
Antarctic Peninsula
West Antarctica
Sea-level equivalent (metres)
60
50
East Antarctica
40
30
20
10
0
Glaciers and ice caps
Greenland
Antarctica
Biophysical impacts
Impact on animals and plants
Movement of vector borne diseases
Migration patterns
Loss of biodiversity
Change in habitats
Crop losses
Economic indicators
Over the last 40 years global inflation-adjusted
losses rose over 10 times
Global economy means that even localized
climate changes can have global effects
Some possible causes of economic loss:
Extreme weather events like storms or
droughts
Sea level rise
Crop failure
Overall and insured losses with trend
Cost of Extreme Weather Events
(US$ bn)
250
US$ bn
Overall and insured losses due to extreme weather events 1950-2011
200
150
100
50
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
Overall losses (in 2011 values)
Insured losses (in 2011 values)
Trend overall losses
Trend insured losses
© 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2012
Munich RE, 2012
1990
2005
2010
German Institute of economic research and Watkiss et al, 2005
Economic indicators
“Failure to take climate change into account will
put companies at risk from future legal actions
from their own shareholders, their investors and
clients. Climate change must inform underwriting
strategy – from the pricing of risk to the wording
of policies. It must guide and counsel business
strategy – including business development and
planning.”
- Lloyds of London, June 2006
Polar regions
– Canary in the coal mine
Global hot spots
Ice shelves breaking up
Glaciers receding
More snowfall in Antarctic
Less snowfall, more rain in Arctic
Declining krill populations
Global Hotspots
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Greenland thawing faster than ever
July 8 2012
Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory and Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI and Cryospheric Sciences Lab
July 12 2012
Other issues in the Arctic
Animals reliant on ice such as seals and polar
bears are losing habitat
Forests move north, loss of tundra
Migration and breeding of Arctic birds no longer
in sync with hatching of insects
Gradual declines in Arctic sea ice
NSICD & Skeptical science.com, 2011
Arctic sea ice receding
March 2006
Spring
March 2007
September 2006
September 2007
Fall
The magenta line indicates the median maximum (top) and minimum (bottom) extent of the ice
cover, for the period 1979-2000.
Menge et al. 2007 and NOAA
Arctic sea reaches a record low
before end of summer 2012
Average sea ice minimum between 1979-2010
Scientific Visualization Studio, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
What changes have we
seen in the Antarctic?
Glacial retreat in the peninsula
244 glaciers
87% have
retreated
over last 50y
Cook et al. 2005
Antarctic Ozone Hole
NASA Earth Observatory, NASA Ozone Hole Watch, 2011
Antarctic climate
and the Ozone hole
A vortex forms around ASL
(Red)
Increases around continent
(yellow)
Keeps warm, moist air out
Allows Ozone hole to form
Allows more heat loss
Recovery of the Ozone hole
by 2070 = less shielding
from warming
ACCE (2009)
Temperature Trends
NASA
Temperature Trends
2002 Breakup
HOW MUCH ICE DO YOU THINK WAS
LOST IN THE 2002 BREAKUP?
Broke up over 35 days
220 m thick
Covered 3250 km2
12 000 years old
720 000 000 000 000kg (720 billion tons) of ice
broke off the ice shelf
Images from
MODIS and
NASA’s TERRA
satellite
A tale of three penguin species
Climate change “losers”
Climate change “winner”
Gentoo
Adélie
Chinstrap
expanding population + range
populations declining, disappearing
opportunistic colonizer
colonial, minimal “pioneering”
less specialized diet
krill specialists
more likely to re-lay
unlikely to re-lay
Source: Antarctic Site Inventory data & analysis
Slide courtesy of Ron Naveen, 2012
Penguin populations near palmer station
Adélies declining, Gentoos and Chinstraps invading and increasing
PALLTER
Long-Term Ecological Research Network 2010, based on Ducklow et al. 2007
Palmer 2001-02 Heavy spring snowstorms: near- total
penguin breeding failure (as air warms, more evaporation
and greater water content – more snow!)
Torgersen Nov – 2001 – Effect of physical environment
Photo: C. Holgate
01 January 2007
01 January 2008
01 January 2009
Plots of Sea Surface Temperature around South Georgia 2007 - 2009
16 January 2007
Tarling et al. 2012
16 January 2008
16 January 2009
Changes in seals at Palmer Station 1975 - 2006
Weddell
seals
Elephant
seals
Fur seals
Ice-dependent: Adélie penguins, Weddell seals.
Ice-independent: Chinstrap & Gentoo penguins, Elephant & fur seals
How should we address climate
change?
Adaptation - Manage the Unavoidable
Mitigation – Avoid the unmanageable
A few examples of what can be done
http://live-the-solution.com/mindmaps/
Thank you
Questions?
Presentation developed for IAATO by Gail Gutowski and Claudia Holgate Funding for
the development of this presentation was provided by Cheesemans’ Ecology Safaris.
The developers acknowledge the input and comments from the Scientific Committee on
Antarctic Research (SCAR)
References
 Climate change 1995, The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Second Assessment
Report of the International Panel on Climate Change, UNEP and WMO, Cambridge University Press, 1996
 Grant Foster and Stegan Rahmstorf 2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 044022
 J. Jouzel et al. 2007, Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 years, Science 317 (5839),
793-796
 Solar vs. Temperature: http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=5
 NASA GISS, 2005: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
 Rayner, N. A.; Parker, D. E.; Horton, E. B.; Folland, C. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Rowell, D. P.; Kent, E. C.; Kaplan, A.
(2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late
nineteenth century J. Geophys. Res.Vol. 108, No. D14, 4407 10.1029/2002JD002670
 J. H. Lawrimore, M. J. Menne, B. E. Gleason, C. N. Williams, D. B. Wuertz, R. S. Vose, and J. Rennie (2011), An
overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly mean temperature data set, version 3, J.
Geophys. Res., 116, D19121, doi:10.1029/2011JD016187.
 PMOD: ftp://ftp.pmodwrc.ch/pub/data/irradiance/composite/DataPlots/composite_d41_62_0906.dat
 http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/data/tsi_1611.txt
 Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2005, Vital Climate Change Graphics Update,
http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/temperature-trends-and-projections_5870
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Climate Change, 2007, Cambridg University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, New York, New York, USA
 Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. 2011, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge
National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, U.S.A.
 Brohan et al. 2006, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, D12106, 21 PP., doi:10.1029/2005JD006548
 Met Office, Global Mean Temperature Anomaly Comparison, 2011:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/2010-global-temperature
 Climate Institute, Annual Frequency of North Atlantic Tropical Storms: http://www.climate.org/topics/extremeweather/index.html
 Emanuel, K. North Atlantic Power Dissipation vs. SST, 1949-2009, pre-publication:
http://eaps4.mit.edu/faculty/Emanuel/publications/tropical_cyclone_trends
References
 M. Vermeer and S. Rahmstorf, Global sea level linked to global temperature, 2009, PNAS December 22, 2009 vol. 106
no. 51 21527-21532
 Munich Re, 2012. Topics Geo Natural Catastrophes 2011: Analyses, Assessments,
Positions.http://www.munichre.com/publications/302-07225_en.pdf. Knowledge series.
 German Institute of economic research: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.43084.de/diw_wr_200512.pdf
 Watkiss et al. 2005: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication7726_en.pdf
 National Geographic, Global Warming Effects Map: http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/globalwarming/gw-impacts-interactive.html
 NASA GISS, Global Hotspots: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=5236
 Lloyd’s, 360 Risk Project, 2006, Climate Change: Adapt or Bust,
http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/3be75eab0df24a5184d0814c32161c2d.ashx
 Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory and Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI and Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenland
2012 Surface Melt: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-217
 National Snow and Ice Data Center, Declining Arctic sea ice: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/
 Vanishing Arctic sea ice animation: http://www.skepticalscience.com/vanishing-arctic-sea-ice-going-up-the-downescalator.html
 Sea Ice Index, NOAA: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
 J. Richter-Menge et al., 2007, Sea Ice Cover, Arctic Report Card 2007: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/report07/seaice.html
 A.J. Cook et al., 2005, Retreating Glacier Fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the Past Half-Century, Scienc, Vol. 308
no. 5721 pp. 541-544
 NASA Earth Observatory. World of Change: Antarctic Ozone Hole. Accessed January 31, 2011:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=49040
 NASA Earth Observatory, Antarctic Temperature Trends, 2006: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=6502
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http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/larsenb.php
 Long-term Ecological Research Network, 2010, Penguin populations near Palmer Station:
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 G.A. Tarling et al. 2012, DISCOVERY 2012: Spatial and temporal variability in a dynamic polar ecosystem
A few (more) things you can do in
your daily life
Turn off lights when you leave a room. Don’t use lights when there’s daylight
Replace conventional bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs
Set your computer, monitor, and laptop to sleep or hibernate
Recycle
Turn off office equipment and computers completely at night and on weekends
Use a fan instead of an air conditioner
Make your travel carbon neutral
Commute by bike, public transportation, or a hybrid or fuel efficient vehicle
Update major appliances like refrigerators with energy efficient models
Perform an energy audit of your home, especially windows and insulation