Statewide Water Supply Initiative

Gunnison Water Workshop

July 29, 2005

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SWSI goals as authorized by Legislature (May 2003):

• Examine all aspects of Colorado water use over the next 30 years • Evaluate water supply and water management alternatives in each river basin • Formulate strategies and build consensus on alternatives to meet future water needs 2

Colorado’s Eight Major Basins

North Platte Yampa/White South Platte Colorado Gunnison San Juan/ Dolores Rio Grande Arkansas

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Major Findings

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1. Significant Increases in Colorado’s Population will Intensify Competition for Water

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Population Projections by Basin

Basin 2000 2030 Increase in Population Percent Change 2000-2030 Arkansas Colorado San Juan / Dolores / San Miguel 835,130 248,000 90,900 1,293,000 492,600 171,600 457,900 244,600 80,700 55% 99% 89% Gunnison North Platte Rio Grande South Platte Yampa / White / Green 88,600 1,600 46,400 2,985,600 39,300 161,500 2,000 62,700 4,911,600 61,400 72,900 400 16,300 1,926,000 22,100 82% 25% 35% 65% 56%

Total 4,335,500 7,156,400

2,820,900

65%

Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs Demography Section Annual Growth Rate 1.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 0.7% 1.0% 1.7% 1.5%

1.7%

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Statewide Agricultural Demands

Basin

Arkansas * Colorado Dolores/San Juan/ San Miguel Gunnison North Platte Rio Grande South Platte Yampa/White/Green

TOTAL

2000 Irrigated Acres

405,000 238,000 255,000

Irrigation Water Requirement (AF/Year)

748,000 366,000 370,000

Water Supply Limited Consumptive Use (AF/Year)

619,000 319,000 294,000 264,000 116,000 633,000 1,027,000 118,000

3,056,000

473,000 96,000 1,108,000 1,798,000 138,000

5,097,000

396,000 96,000 776,000 1,541,000 123,000

4,164,000 Gross Diversions (AF/ Year)

1,770,000 1,764,000 953,000 1,705,000 397,000 1,660,000 2,606,000 642,000

11,497,000

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2. Projects and Processes that Local M&I Providers are Implementing or Planning to Implement Have the Ability to Meet 80 Percent of Colorado's M&I Water Needs Through 2030

20% Gap (119,000 AF) 80% of Demand (511,000 AF) Met Through 2030

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Statewide Gross M&I and Self-supplied Industrial Water Demands – 2000 to 2030 Basin Arkansas Colorado San Juan / Dolores / San Miguel Gunnison North Platte Rio Grande South Platte Yampa / White / Green TOTAL Total 2000 Gross Demand (AF) Projected Conservation Savings (AF) Projected 2030 Gross Demand (AF) Increase in Gross Demand (AF) Estimated Demand met by future water supplies and additional conservation (AF) Identified Gross Demand Shortfall (AF) 256,900 74,100 18,600 7,800 354,900 136,000 98,000 61,900 80,500 58,700 17,500 3,200 23,600 20,600 500 2,400 2,100 — 42,400 35,500 600 18,800 14,900 100 13,900 12,500 100 4,900 2,400 — 17,400 772,400 29,400 1,194,900 1,400 68,700 900 101,900 21,700 1,182,100 51,700 1,824,900 4,300 409,700 22,300 630,000 4,300 319,100 22,300 511,400 — 90,600 — 118,600

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3. If Identified M&I Projects and Processes Are Not Successfully Implemented, Colorado Could See a Significantly Greater Reduction in Irrigated Agricultural Lands

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Potential Changes in Irrigated Acres

North Platte

Source: Colorado's Decision Support Systems and Basin Roundtable/ Basin Advisor input.

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4. Supplies are not necessarily where/when demands are

• Localized shortages exist – Headwaters areas – Most agricultural users – Highly over-appropriated areas of South Platte and Arkansas – Areas where physical availability is limited • Compact entitlements are not fully utilized in some basins 12

2000 Population, Irrigated Acres and Flows 1,530,000 310,000

N. PLATTE

110,000

LARAMIE

400,000 YAMPA SOUTH PLATTE 560,000 WHITE 4,500,000 COLORADO 510,000 WEST SLOPE

Population:

467,000

Irrigated Acres:

880,000 1,780,000 320,000 EAST SLOPE

Population:

3,869,000

Irrigated Acres:

2,270,000 164,000

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2030 M&I Water Demands and Gaps

South Platte Yampa/White/Green

10,300 AF 107,600 AF

Colorado Gunnison North Platte

Gap 107,800 AF Identified Projects 404,300 AF

Dolores/ San Juan/ San Miguel Rio Grande Arkansas

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High and Low Estimates of 2030 State of Colorado’s Share of Colorado River Compact Depletions

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Colorado’s Compact Entitlement BOR Hydrologic Determination Multi-basin Project Future Exports Future West Slope Depletions CRSP Evpaoration Current Exports Current West Slope Depletions 2030 High Demand 2030 Low Demand

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30,000,000 Actual and Projected Lake Powell Storage Under Modified Release Scenario 2000 - 2004 Reservoir Capacity = 27 MAF 25,000,000 20,000,000 10 Year Progressive Delivery of 82 MAF 16.8 MAF 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 10 Year Progressive Delivery of 102 MAF Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04

Actual Storage Storage Under Modified Releases Reservoir Capacity 16

5. Conflicts over use of groundwater are increasing

• Groundwater use is affected by both legal and physical constraints • Increased reliance on nonrenewable, non tributary groundwater for permanent water supply raises serious reliability and sustainability concerns – South Metro area – Northern El Paso County • San Luis Valley using unsustainable amounts • Administration of Arkansas and South Platte alluvial groundwater 17

6. In-basin Solutions Can Help Resolve Gaps Between M&I Supply and Demand, but there will be Tradeoffs and Impacts on Other Uses

• Adequate in-basin options are available to meet in basin needs in each basin – Conservation – Reuse – Agricultural transfers – New storage • Multiple solutions will be needed • Multi-purpose projects will likely be the most successful 18

7. Water Conservation Will Be Relied On as a Major Tool for Meeting Future M&I Demands, but Conservation Alone Cannot Meet All of Colorado's Future Needs

• System reliability depends on ability to further reduce water use in times of drought • Additional conservation measures are part of most providers’ IP& P’s • Conservation does not fully address reliability and sustainability concerns • Concerns raised regarding impacts of additional conservation on downstream supply availability 19

Estimated Total Potential Additional Water Conservation Savings for M&I and Self-Supplied Industrial Uses from 2000 to 2030

50 40 30 20 10 0 Level V Level IV Level III Level II Current Level 1

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8. Without a Mechanism to Fund Environmental and Recreational Enhancement, Conflicts Among Interests Will Likely Intensify

• These uses support tourism, provide benefits to our citizens and are important industry • Conflicts over these needs and water development arise, driving up costs and delaying implementation 21

9. The Ability of Smaller, Rural Water Providers and Agricultural Water Users to Adequately Address Their Existing and Future Water Needs is Significantly Limited by Their Financial Capabilities

• These users often do not have tax or revenue base to pay costs • There was a statewide expressed need for financial assistance 22

10. Beyond 2030, Growing Demands May Require More Aggressive Solutions

• The ability to meet future demands with in-basin supplies will be a greater challenge • Many large providers at or near build-out, smaller providers will play a more dominant role • Greater need for increased coordination intra and inter-basin 23

Recommendations Next Steps

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Key Recommendations

• Ongoing dialogue among all water interests is needed • Track and support the identified projects and processes • Develop a program to evaluate, quantify, and prioritize environmental and recreational water enhancement goals • Work toward consensus recommendations on funding mechanisms for environmental and recreational enhancements 25

Key Recommendations (continued)

• Create a common understanding of future water supplies • Develop implementation plans toward meeting future needs • Assess potential new State roles in implementing solutions • Develop requirements for standardized annual M&I water use data reporting 26

SWSI Phase 2 Specific Topics for Further Evaluation

• Meeting the 20% M&I gap • Water efficiency (M&I and agricultural) • Alternative Agricultural Transfers to Permanent Dry-up (rotating fallowing, interruptible agreements) • Quantification and prioritization of environmental and recreational needs • Identify potential multi-use projects • Funding alternatives

Goal is to develop consensus and recommendations and highlight benefits and limitations

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CWCB November 2004 Statewide Water Supply Initiative (SWSI) Mission Statement

The 20% M&I Gap, Agricultural Shortages and Environmental and Recreational Enhancements

Foster cooperation among water suppliers and citizens in every water basin to examine and implement options to fill the gap between ongoing water planning and future water needs.

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Technical Roundtables Input to CWCB

Water Efficiency Alternatives to Permanent Ag Dry-up Quantify Recreation and Environmental Need Addressing the Gap including Alternatives Discussion of Workgroup Products BRT 6 Funding Project Concepts Multi-Use Projects

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Example Portfolios to Meet M&I Gap and address Agricultural Shortages and Environmental and Recreational Uses

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Market Based New Water Supply Development Water Conservation Reuse Ag Efficiency M&I Conservation (Level 5) M&I Conservation (level 3) Trans-basin Diversions New Storage Ag Transfer The options above can be assembled into portfolios to provide for meeting M&I, agricultural, environmental and recreational needs

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SWSI Interbasin Compact Interface

PRELIMINARY DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY TRT Meetings and Work Products TRT - Addressing the Gap 4/28/2005 Summary of Proposed SWSI Phase 2 and Inter-Basin Compact Schedule 2005 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2006 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TRT Meetings and Work Products (Water Eff., Ag. Transfer, Rec/Env.) TRT Meetings (Addressing the Gap) Coordinate w/IBCRTs Basin Roundtable Meeting #6 Organize IBC Roundtables (IBCRT) Inter-Basin Compact (IBC) Committee

Committee Report to Legislature

Conduct IBCRT Activities/Negotiations CWCB Board Meetings BRT6 Organize IBCRTs and Develop Guiding Documents Convene/Develop Charter (7/1/06 Statutory Deadline) ▲

3/1/06

▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲

10/31/06

Conduct IBCRT Activities ▲ ▲ ▲

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Additional Information Questions

www.cwcb.state.co.us

[email protected]

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