Transcript Hardwood Markets in Europe and United States in 2002 and 2003 By Ed Pepke Project Leader Forest Products Marketing Programme UN Economic Commission for Europe and Food.

Hardwood Markets
in Europe and United States
in 2002 and 2003
By Ed Pepke
Project Leader
Forest Products Marketing Programme
UN Economic Commission for Europe and
Food and Agricultural Organization
Geneva, Switzerland
American Hardwood in Europe
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Bim-vindos a Lisboa!
(Welcome to Lisbon!)
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Program
• Hardwood markets: US and Europe
• Promotion and issues
• Panel discussion on above
• Hardwood consumption realities
• Panel discussion
• Dimension and component opportunities
• Breakout sessions by country groupings
• Country reports in plenary
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Announcements
• Turn off mobile telephones, please
• Governed by US anti-trust laws
• Speakers requested to respect timing
• Audience requested to respect timing too
• Hold questions for panel discussions
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Content of presentation
• Overall market developments, 2002 & 2003
– Overall
– Hardwoods
– Certified forest products
– Other forest products markets
• Hardwood production, consumption and trade
• Promotion necessities
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Sources of info
• UNECE/FAO TIMBER database (forest
products statistics)
• FAOSTAT Forestry Database website
• UNECE/FAO Timber Bulletin, “Forest Products
Annual Market Review, 2001-2002”
• Timber Committee market forecasts and
statement, 2002-2003
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Overall market conditions, highlights of
Forest Products Annual Market Review,
2001-2002
• Viable forest products markets, supported by
policy reforms, underpin sustainable
development in some central and eastern
European countries (CEECs).
• Following 10 years of growth, consumption of
primary-processed forest products in the
UNECE region declined sharply in 2001.
• Consumption of wood products in the CIS,
notably Russia, gained 7% in 2001.
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Overall market conditions, highlights of
Forest Products Annual Market Review,
2001-2002
• North American markets were buoyed up by
extraordinary strength of US housing-related
demand for wood products.
• Market effects from Europe’s 1999
windstorms still affected markets.
• Strong US$ influenced 2001 markets, and
weakened $ in 2002 is changing competitive
positions and trade.
• Structural change in US and western
European furniture manufacturing.
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Overall market conditions, highlights of
Forest Products Annual Market Review,
2001-2002
• Certified forest product markets growing, but
remain small compared to surge in certified
forest area.
• Panel markets expanded in 2001, achieving
new records for OSB and MDF.
• Cross sectoral policy issues directly influence
forest products sector.
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Timber Committee Market Statement
General Forecasts for 2002-2003
• Following record levels in 2000, a downturn in
forest products markets occurred in the
UNECE region in 2001.
• Weak economic conditions in North America
and Europe persist in 2002.
• Central and eastern European and CIS (exUSSR) forecast rising consumption,
production and trade.
• Slight improvement forecast for 2003.
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Timber Committee Market Statement
General Forecasts for 2002-2003
• Encouraged countries to work together to
achieve maximum benefits from promotional
efforts.
• Promoting sound use of wood is important to
maintain and increase wood’s market share.
• International approaches to wood promotion
are importaqnt to ensure sustainable
markets, a vital component of sustainable
forest management.
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Certified Forest
Products
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Timber Committee Certified Forest
Products Forecasts for 2002-2003
• Certified forestland increased by 25% in
UNECE region in 2002.
• 90% of world’s certified forests are in the
UNECE region.
• Most of the markets for CFPs are within the
region.
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Timber Committee Certified Forest
Products Forecasts for 2002-2003
• Current problems include weak market
demand, lack of mutual recognition, lack of
chain of custody.
• Many products from certified forests are
being sold without labels.
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Timber Committee Hardwood
Lumber Forecasts for 2002-2003
•
•
•
•
•
US exports forecast to leap 22% in 2002.
US exports to reach record 3.2 million m3.
Largest export market for US is now China.
Some US exports reimported in furniture.
More optimism in central and eastern (CEECs)
than western Europe.
• Value-added exports increasing for CEECs and
tropical countries.
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Hardwood lumber
(also known as
sawn hardwood)
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Hardwood highlights of Forest Products
Annual Market Review, 2001-2002
• Total sawn hardwood production in the
UNECE region declined in 2001.
• Sawnwood production increased significantly
in central and eastern European countries.
• Production remained constant in western
Europe.
• Drop in western European production
attributed to 1999 windstorms oversupply.
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Highlights of Forest Products Annual
Market Review 2001-2002
• Exports for the UNECE region were down by
5%.
• UNECE region imports of sawn hardwood in
2001 were down by 6%.
• Apparent consumption in the UNECE region
fell from its 2000 peak.
• Central and eastern European countries
consumption of sawn hardwood is increasing.
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Highlights of Forest Products Annual
Market Review
• Events of 11 September 2001 accentuate
reduced demand.
• Rapid development of Asian furniture
industries affecting hardwood trade and
furniture production in UNECE region.
• Markets affected by currency exchange rates.
• Environmental issues, certification, legality,
getting press.
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Europe: Sawn hardwood
25 000
1000 m3
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Production
Consum ption
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Europe: Hardwood lumber
10 000
1000 m3
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Im ports
Exports
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North America: Sawn hardwood
35 000
1000 m3
33 000
31 000
29 000
27 000
25 000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Production
Consum ption
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North America: Hardwood Lumber
5 000
1000 m3
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Im ports
Exports
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USA Hardwood Lumber Forecasts
32,000
1000 m3
30,000
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
1998
1999
2000
Production
2001
2002
2003
Consumption
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USA Hardwood Lumber Forecasts
3500
3000
1000 m3
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1998
1999
2000
Imports
2001
2002
2003
Exports
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Comparison to
other forest products markets
in 2002-2003
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Europe: Softwood lumber
100 000
1000 m3
90 000
80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Production
Consum ption
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Europe: Softwood lumber
50 000
1000 m3
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Im ports
Exports
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North America: Softwood lumber
120 000
1000 m3
110 000
100 000
90 000
80 000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Production
Consum ption
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North America: Softwood lumber
50 000
1000 m3
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Im ports
Exports
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North America: Paper and paperboard
110 000
1000 mt
100 000
90 000
80 000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Production
Consumption
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North America: Paper and paperboard
30 000
1000 m t
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Imports
Exports
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Europe: Paper and paperboard
100 000
95 000
90 000
1000 mt
85 000
80 000
75 000
70 000
65 000
60 000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Production
Consumption
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Europe: Paper and paperboard
60 000
55 000
1000 m t
50 000
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Imports
Exports
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Europe: MDF
10 000
1000 m3
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
Production
1999
2000
Imports
2001
2002
2003
Exports
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North America: MDF
4 000
1000 m3
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
Production
1999
2000
Imports
2001
2002
2003
Exports
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North America: Particleboard
15 000
1000 m3
12 000
9 000
6 000
3 000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
Production
1999
2000
Imports
2001
2002
2003
Exports
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Europe: Particleboard
40 000
35 000
1000 m3
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Production
Imports
Exports
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Promotion of
forest products
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Annual change in forest area,
1990-2000
3
2
Million Hectares
1
0
-1
Africa
N&C
America
Europe
Asia
Oceania
-2
Natural
Plantation
Total
-3
-4
-5
South
America
-6
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Forest resources summary
• Removals considerably below growth in
UNECE region.
• Wide variance in utilisation rates of NAI.
• Growing stock increasing in Europe.
• Oversupply compared to demand for wood.
• Increasing alternative demands on forests.
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• Growing too much wood?
• Not enough wood products demand?
• What are the solutions?
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Grow the wood markets !
• Guarantee that today’s wood products meet
consumers’ needs
• Develop new products to meet evolving
needs
• Develop new markets for wood products
(substitute for non-renewable materials)
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How can we grow the wood markets?
• Through coordinated, international promotion
programs
• Example: the FAO-ECE Forest Communicators
Network creates a positive image of the
forest and forest industries sector by:
– networking among members
– identifying key common messages and
concepts
– building of PR capacity
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Findings on the market effects of
wood promotion from Forest Products
Annual Market Review
• Attitudes influenced by cultural and technical
dimensions
• Credibility is important quality
• Key elements of promotional work
– Competence
– Neutrality
– Sufficient financial resources
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Findings on the market effects of
wood promotion from Forest
Products Annual Market Review
• Fund raising a problem in fragmented
industry
• Multi-country promotions must overcome
cultural differences
• Wood promotion is a success story!
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2001 Timber Committee
Market Statement
• “In light of the economic downturn in 2001,
the Timber Committee stated that it is
imperative to develop new products to
expand existing markets and to
establish new markets to meet consumers’
needs.
• The Committee reasserted the importance for
the forest products industry to work
internationally to promote the
environmental advantages of the
sustainable production of wood.”
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2001 Timber Committee
Market Statement
• “The Committee discussed the need to
increase the wood culture in the UNECE
region.
• Delegates mentioned on-going national
and subregional campaigns to promote
the use of wood.
• The Committee suggested coordinating
efforts in order to achieve greater
success.”
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2002 Timber Committee
Market Statement
• “Encouraged countries to work together to
achieve the maximum benefits of their
promotional efforts.
• Multi-country promotion of the sound use
of wood is important to maintain and
increase wood’s market share.”
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2002 Timber Committee
Market Statement
• “Many effective communication strategies can
be shared through collaboration between
countries, trade associations and
promotional groups.
• These international approaches to wood
promotion are important to ensure
sustainable markets which are a vital
component of sustainable forest
management.”
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Convention
Summary
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Major themes
• Portugal: nation of vision
• US hardwood manufacturing restructuring
– Changing export markets
– Evolution in domestic market
– Costs rising faster than prices
– 1.8 million homes using more hardwoods
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Major themes
• Global forces on hardwood markets
– Fashion business
– Acceptance
– Viability
– Environmental issues
• Business environment
• Forest
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Major themes
• Increasing value-added production
• Shifting markets
• Domestic consumption increasing in
developing countries
• Illegal logging to affect hardwood trade
• Political issues working in wood’s favor
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Major themes
• Economic development important in
environment development
• Enhanced use of wood
• Challenges & opportunities for dimension
• Shifting production for cost savings
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Recommendations
• Influence decision makers
• Develop image
• Influence fashion
• Repeat positive messages about hardwoods
to decision makers
• Continuous engagement in int’l processes
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Recommendations
• Necessity of cooperative international
promotion
• Promote enhanced use of wood
• Promote alternative products and species
• Listen to European’s market needs
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La fin
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