Transcript Science and Pseudoscience Steve Dutch Natural and Applied Sciences University of Wisconsin-Green Bay.

Science and Pseudoscience
Steve Dutch
Natural and Applied Sciences
University of Wisconsin-Green Bay
The Spectrum of Scientific Probability
10,000:1 in Favor
Heliocentric Astronomy
Quantum Mechanics
Evolution
1,000:1
100:1
10:1
Quarks
Warm Blooded Dinosaurs Frontier
Impact-caused Extinction
Even
10:1
Extraterrestrial
Intelligence
Paleolinguistics
100:1
Loch Ness, Bigfoot
1,000:1
UFO's, Psychic
Phenomena
Velikovsky, Creationism
10,000:1 Against
Center
Fringe
Dangers Of The Intellectual
Counterculture
• Some Theories Dangerous In Themselves
– Political Extremism
– Racism
– Quack Medical Cults
• Connections To Extremism
– Lend Intellectual Legitimacy
– Serve As Safety Valve?
Dangers Of The Intellectual
Counterculture
• Symptom Of Societal Irrationality
– Child Abuse - Satanic Cult Hysteria
– Recovered Memories
• Confusion Over Methodology
– Acceptance of Faulty Data and Reasoning
– Scientific Illiteracy
– Logical Illiteracy
The Purpose of the Mind, As of
the Mouth, Is to Open It in
Order to Close It on Something
Solid.
-G.K. Chesterton
What Is Pseudoscience ?
• What Pseudoscience Is
– Demonstrably Faulty Observations or Theories
– Usually Supported by Logical Fallacies
– In Open Defiance of Scientific Consensus
• What Pseudoscience Is Not
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Errors Made in Good Faith (Polywater, Cold Fusion)
Informed Speculation
Defined by Personal Disagreement
Defined by Personality or Style
Logical Structure of Pseudoscience
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"Galileo Fallacy"
"Residue Fallacy"
Explanation by Default
Distortion of the Term "Theory"
Attacks on Inference and Deduction
Exaggeration of Uncertainty
Extreme Relativism, Solipsism
Catch-22 Arguments, Buzzwords
Conspiratorial Outlook
Is It Fair to Reject All
Conspiratorial Theories?
• Erroneous Use of Terms
– No Secrecy - No Conspiracy
– Common Effort or Goal is not a Conspiracy
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– Criticism is not Persecution
Irrelevant to Issues
– Objectives May Be Morally Acceptable
– Sometimes Secrecy Is Necessary
– Immoral Conspiracies Are Immoral Because of Their Goals and
Methods, Not Their Secrecy
Intellectually Dishonest
– Impossible to Disprove
– Can Rationalize Away Any Anomaly
Appeal to Emotions Instead of Facts
Poisons Climate of Debate
A Nation of Jailhouse Lawyers
• Freedom of Speech
• Criminal Cases
– Innocent Until Proven Guilty
• Civil Cases
– Preponderance of the Evidence
– Who Controls the Facts?
Two Common Types of Bad Data
• "Gee Whiz" Facts
• Anecdotal Evidence
"Gee Whiz" Facts "
• A Million Children Are Reported
Missing Every Year"
• "Suicide Is the ---th Leading Cause of
Death Among Teen-agers"
To Be Valid, Anecdotal Evidence
• Must Be True
• Must Be Representative
– Example: the Millionaire Who Pays No Income
Tax (Source, 1987 IRS Data)
• Income
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Average Tax
$19-22,000
$ 1739
$40-50,000
$ 5276
Over $1,000,000 $703284
(Average $2,422,000)
% of Income
8.5
11.8
29.3
– Anecdote May Be True, but Is Not
Representative
Example: The millionaire who pays no
income tax
• The reality looks like this (Source, 2000 IRS data; 2003
Statistical Abstract of US Table 491)
Income $
Tax Paid $
Tax as % AGI
9,000-11,000
470
4.7
22,000-25,000
1,815
7.7
50,000-75,000
6,824
11.2
100,000-200,000
22,783
17.3
>1,000,000
(Average 3.4 $M)
945,172
27.7
The Millionaire Who Pays No Income Tax
(Source, 1999 Statistical Abstract of the
United States)
• Income Average Tax
% of Income
– $50,000-75,000
$ 7300
– Over $1,000,000 $875000
– (Average $2,800,000)
• Anecdote May Be True, but Is Not
Representative
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Urban Legends
• Common Elements:
– Moral Retribution for Violating Standards
– Horror or Yaboo
• Can Never Trace to Source
• Jan Harold Brunvand, University of Utah
Testing
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What Does It Take to Prove an Idea Wrong?
What Does It Take to Prove an Idea Right?
What Does It Take to Prove You Wrong?
Can You Find Factual Evidence?
Can You Find Logical Flaws?
Keep Your Eyes on the Prize - Don’t Get
Distracted by Emotional Arguments or
Irrelevancies
What Pseudoscience Reveals
About Science
• There Is No Such Thing As the Scientific
Method
• Science Is Based on Content, Not Structure
• What Is Science, Then?
– A Body of Observations and Theories Capable of
Verification or Refutation
– Have Survived Testing
– Methods That Have Proven Useful for Acquiring,
Verifying or Refuting Observations and Theories.