Transcript Centre report of KMA 29th WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 2014 Hoon Park Numerical Model Management Office KMA.

Centre report of KMA
29th WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 2014
Hoon Park
Numerical Model Management Office KMA
Outlines
• Current status & update strategy of KMA NWP system
• Upgrade NWP system in 2014 and upcoming plans
• Research activities in NWP at KMA
2
Status & upgrade strategy
KMA’s 3nd Supercomputer (current)
Computing System for
Operation
(20 Cabinets, 379Tflop/s)
Ref
HaeOn
Installation Year
Core Number
Core Type
HaeOn
Computing System for R&D and
backup
(20 Cabinets, 379Tflop/s)
HaeDam
Total
2010. 12
45,120
45,120
90,240
AMD 2.1 GHz, 12 core
Peak performance
379 TF
379 TF
758TF
Main Memory
60 TB
60 TB
120TB
Capacity of Disk
4 PB
Capacity of Tape drive
8 PB
OS
Suse Linux 11
HaeDam
HaeOn, HaeDam was ranked the 110th, 111th fastest supercomputer in the world (Nov. 2013)
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Ref. ( http://www.top500.org )
Operational NWP Systems
GLOBAL
• Resolution
N512L70 (UM)
(~25km / top = 80km)
• Target Length
288hrs (00/12UTC)
87hrs (06/18UTC)
• Initialization : Hybrid
Ensemble 4DVAR
E-ASIA
•UM 12kmL70 /
WRF 10kmL40
• Target Length
87hrs/72hrs (6 hourly)
• Initialization : 4DVAR /
3DVAR
5
Global EPS
• Resolution
N320L70 (UM)
(~40km/ top =80km)
• Target Length
288hrs
• IC : GDAPS
• # of Members : 24
• Perturbation : ETKF,
RP, SKEB2
LOCAL
• Resolution
1.5kmL70 (UM)
(744928 / top =39km)
• Target Length
36hrs
• Initialization : 3DVAR
Operational NWP Models (’13.6~)
Resolution
Target
Length
Main target
N512(25km) L70
12 days
87hours(06,18)
Medium-range
N320 L70 M24
12 days
Medium-range (EPS)
UM (E.Asia)
12km L70
87 hours
Short-range
WRF (E.Asia)
10km L40
87 hours
Short-range
UM (Korea)
1.5km L70
36 hours
Very short-range
KLAPS (Korea)
5km
12 hours
Very short-range
55km
12days
Global
8km
87 hours
Northeast Asia
1km
72 hours
Coastal
ADAM (Dust & Aerosol) 30km
72 hours
Asia dust
DBAR (Typhoon)
35km
72 hours
Track
Tide/Storm Surge
9km
87 hours
Northeast Asia
Model
Global
E-Asia
Local
App.
&
Stat.
6
UM (Global)
Wave Watch III
Update plans for NWP system
Year
2014
2015
computer
3rd
3rd to 4th
2016
2017
4th
Global
Deterministic
25km 70L
Hybrid 4dVar
60km inner loop
17km70L
Hybrid 4dVar
40km DA inner loop
Global
Ensemble
40km 70L 24M
6 hour cycle
25km 70L 24M
6 hour cycle
Local
(LDAPS)
Deterministic
1.5km 70L
3dVar(3hr)
3km inner loop
1.5km 70L
4dVar(1hr)
3km inner loop
1.5km 70L
Hybrid 4dVar(1hr)
3km inner loop
1km 70L
Hybrid 4dvar(1hr)
2km inner loop
Local
(LDAPS)
Ensemble
3km 70L 12M
3km 70L 12M
3km 70L 12M
1.5km 70L 24M
(Semi operation run)
(Official operation run)
Undetermined
Coupling with ocean wave, Asian dust model with global model
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Update NWP system in 2013
NWP Changes in 2013
 Global Data Assimilation and Prediction Syste (N512L70)
 Version changes
 UM : vn7.7 → vn7.9
 VAR/OPS : vn27.2 →vn29.2
 SURF: vn18.2 → vn18.5
 Major change
 4dVar → Hybrid Ensemble 4dVar
 Physics package upgrade (PS26 → PS28)
 Use Climatological Aerosols Data Set
 Add COMS CSR data
9
NWP Changes in 2013
 Regional(East Asia) Data Assimilation and Prediction System(12kmL70)




UM : vn7.7 → vn7.9
Physics package: PS27 → PS28
SURF: vn18.5
Ancillary Data Set update (CAP6.6 → CAP7.7)
 New soil hydraulic properties – wilting and critical points
 New soil thermal conductivity
 Local(Korea) Data Assimilation and Prediction System(1.5kmL70)
 UM : vn7.9 (1.5km L70 )
 Physics package : PS27 → PS28
 OPS : vn27.2 / VAR : vn27.2 → vn29.2
 SURF: vn18.3 → vn18.5
 Use Aerosol effect for Visibility with domestic emission data
 Latent heat nudging using Radar Data
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Global Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR
06 UTC
12 UTC
18 UTC
00 UTC
Background
GDAPS
ERLY
LATE
ERLY
LATE
ERLY
Initial T+0
Obs
EPS
ERLY
9h
ERLY
(12d)
288h
LATE
ERLY
LATE
BERR
ERLY
9h
ERLY
288h
(12d)
• Changes in EPS : 2 times daily (00/12UTC) → 4 times daily (9 hours forecast at
06/18UTC)
• Use Hybrid background-error covariance (Climatological covariance :
Ensemble covariance = 1.0 : 0.3) to reflect “Error of the day”
11
Impact of Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR
Verification against Observation / Improvement over Non-hybrid D.A. [%]
July~August 2012
December 2012
Positive
Impact
AVG
AVG
Verification Domain
Verification Domain
Verification against ECMWF Analysis (Z500) / Improvement over Non-hybrid D.A. [%]
July~August 2012
December 2012
Positive
Impact
NH
12
TR
SH
NML
ASIA
Verification Domain
EASIA
AVG
NH
TR
SH
NML
ASIA
Verification Domain
EASIA
AVG
Radiative Effect of Aerosol (Climatology)
Summer
Continental
Warm Bias
13
Operational Global Model Performance
Model :
D. A. :
GSM T106
1dVar 3DOI
(TOVS)
14
GSM T426
GSM T213
3dVar
FGAT
UM N320 UM N512
4dVar
Hybrid 4dVar
The effect of New soil hydraulic properties
•
The corrected soil hydraulic properties data set added to RDAPS(12kmL70).
• The new soil properties shows
wilting, critical point ↑ → soil moisture ↑ → surface temperature ↓
•
Decreased the warm bias in the RDAPS for winter time
Old soil properties
Comparison of the soil properties
OLD
New soil properties
15
Day
local time
Night
NEW
Visibility with Murk Aerosols (LDAPS)
•
Aerosol emission of CAPSS1 at NIER2
 Resolution : 1km X 1km [ kg/year/km2 ]
 Type : NOx, SOx, VOC
 Coverage : South Korea
vis  
1 CAPSS
2 NIER
•
: Clean Air Policy Support System
: National Institute of Environmental Research
INTEX-B (NASA/2006)
Aerosols effect
Improved underestimation visibility for 1~5km
Murk Aerosols
Visibility
NEW
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(1  3 p) 
p 2
 m 
 m  


 
  N 
r

r
 * 0 
air
0 0 m 
m 

 0
 0 


•  : visual contrast(=0.05)
• air : scattering coefficient of clear air(=1.0E-5)
• r* : radius of total water concentration
• m : concentration of murk aerosol
- L_MURK=F : 10 [g/kg]
- L_MURK=T : 0.1~200 [g/kg]
 Resolution : 0.5o0.5o
 Type : NOx, SOx, VOC
 Coverage : East Aisa
•
ln 
Relative Humidity
OLD
Plan for the new HPC introduction
HPC Plans
- Installation of 1st stage system : ‘14 Q4
- Installation of final stage system : ‘15 Q4
- Expacted Rpeak : ~10PFlops (current HPC : 0.75PFlops)
NWP Plans
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NWP system
‘15~’16
‘17~’18
Global (Deterministic)
~17km
~12km
Global (EPS)
~25km
~17km
Local (Deterministic/EPS)
1.5~4km
~1km
Future Plans on NWP system
Model
• Implementation of New Dynamical Core (ENDGame) (’15)
• Increasing resolution of the global model(Ocean wave, dust)
• Development of Probabilistic (Ensemble) NWP Systems
• A-O coupling for NWP (extended medium-range prediction)
Data assimilation
• Development / Implementation of new D.A. technique
- Approach to use Ensemble information in D.A.
• Use of additional observation data
- CSR, Ground GPS, observation from new satellites
• Ocean D.A ( For Seasonal and extended range (30 days)).
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Seamless Prediction Approach
Complexity
Earth System
Joint Seasonal
Prediction
System
1day
3days
1km
A-O Coupling
GAP
NWP
10km
Atmos.(+Sfc.)
Resolution
10days
100km
LDAPS
RDAPS
3months
GDAPS
>year
Target Length
Seasonal Prediction
Climate Research
Global EPS
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1month
Seamless Prediction Approach
Complexity
N320(~40km) UM (M24 EPS) + NEMO(0.25deg)
30-day prediction trial
Earth System
1day
1km
A-O Coupling
10km
Atmos.(+Sfc.)
Resolution
20
100km
3days
10days
1month
3months
>year
Target Length
NWP
Seasonal Prediction
Climate Research
Extension of target
length using coupled
NWP system and
ensemble approach
Spatio-temporally
higher resolution
prediction
Regional & Convective Scale Modelling
Incheon
UM 1kmL70 for 17th Asian Game (Incheon, 2014)
- UM vn7.9 → vn8.2 / 360(E-W)x324(N-S)
- Hourly 3DVAR (2km inner loop) cycle / FGAT
→ 4DVAR?
- LBC from LDAPS model
- T+12H
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Incheon
Int’l Airport
Seoul
Local Ensemble & DA research
LENS
• The integration area covers the
Korean peninsula including
oceans and parts of adjacent
countries such as China and
Japan.
,
1
86
9
km
• About 3km horizontal grid spacing
and 70 vertical levels of top 40km
altitude are employed.
• Simple downscaling of global
Ensemble prediction system
(N400L70, ~32km) will be
adapted for IC and BC.
2,013 km
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Resolution & Num. of members
 Preliminary FSS score(Le Duc et al., 2013) result from 3 rainfall cases.
[0.1mm]
(3km 16) > (3km 12) > (2km 12) ~ (2km 16) >
(2km 8) > (3km 8) > (1.5km 16) ~ (1.5km 12) >
(1.5km 8)
Spatial scale (neighborhood size)
[1.0mm]
(3km 8) > (3km 12)
> (2km 12) ~ (2km 8)
~ (3km 16) > (2km 16)
> (1.5km 12) ~ (1.5km 16)
> (1.5km 8)
Spatial scale (neighborhood size)
 3km 16 member shows best
 3km 12 member selected to trial accounting computer
resources and stable performance
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Trial schedule of LENS
00 UTC
06 UTC
12 UTC
18 UTC
Background
GDAPS
Hybrid
Ensemble
and 4dVar
EPSG
ERLY
 Initial T+0
 Obs.
ERLY
(12d)
Downscaling
LENS
LATE
ERLY
LATE
LATE
ERLY
ERLY
 BG_ERR
s
ERLY
288h
9h
 Pert. IC (T+3)
 Pert. BC
ERLY
(12d)
288h
ERLY
9h
 Pert. IC (T+3)
 Pert. BC
03UTC
T+48
12~24 members
for 2 days forecast
15UTC
• Global ensemble prediction system(EPSG) provides perturbed
initial and boundary conditions for LENS at T+3 forecast.
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LATE
T+48
Application of Ensemble DA
LENS observation sensitivity using LETKF
Spin-up
2012. 08. 03. 12 UTC ~ 2012. 08. 04. 12 UTC
experiment
2012. 08. 05. 00 UTC ~ 2012. 08. 06. 12 UTC(8 cases)
2012080612
Sonde
Surface
Aircraft
8192
15415
1390
Sensitivity
4616.63
145.3896
37740.66
Sensitivity/num
ber
0.5634
0.009432
2.715155
Forecast error
contribution
18428.88
18188.11
257.9684
N. OBS
J
nObs
 ( v )
n 1
0 n
J
v 0
nObs
 (v )
n 1
0 n
J
( v 0 )n
:Forecast error contribution
:N Obs
:Sensitivity
26
Ocean DA and forecasting
Purpose and status
 Objective (application
in KMA)
 Short-range global ocean forecasting
 Seasonal prediction in KMA (GloSea-5)  ocean initial fields
 Improvement of regional ocean forecasting in KMA  lateral condition
 History
 Introduction of NEMO-CICE and NEMOVAR from UK Met Office (2012.7)
- Pre-operational version of codes
• Short-range hindcast simulation
- start from 2010/06/10 (currently, running at 2010/08/ )
- using QCed obs. and NWP fluxes of UKMO
•Development of pre-processing system (2013.1~12.)
- Observations: gathering observations and quality control (NEMOQC)
- Fluxes: extraction from KMA NWP and interpolation to model (ORCA025)
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Hindcast Results


29
10/Jun/2010 ~ 15/Jun/2010
Comparison: SSH
29
Summary & Plan
 Implementation of NEMO/NEMOVAR at KMA is on going.
Next year, works on the post-processing will be conducted
 we will move a pre-operational this Year.
 The assessment will also include inter-comparison with other reanalysis data,
and comparison to independent data (e.g., surface drifter)
The work on diagnosis of the NEMO/NEMOVAR will be started.
 KMA has a plan to replace a current regional ocean model (ROMS) by
regional-NEMO/NEMOVAR system.
(northwestern Pacific Ocean with 1/12 deg.)
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Development at KIAPS
3D global hydrostatic model
Cubed Sphere horizontal grid (CAM-SE)
 Lorenz grid hybrid / Finite difference in vertical(70 layers)
ne30np4(~ 1o×1o)
Plug-in Selected physics modules & dynamic core in own model framework
Develop suitable physics(convection, PBL) around 10 km resolution
Jan. 2012 mean zonal wind
Jan. 2012 mean precipitation
32
Developing Non-hydrostatic dynamic core
• Develop 2-D slice model to test compressible non-hydrostatic equations
• Develop 3-D in 2014(IMEX, CG in horizontal, FE in vertical)
33
Data assimilation
•
Develop basic components for DA
– Ensemble DA using LETKF on cubed sphere grid
– Minimization & variable conversion using spectral element method for
variation method
– Developing 4DEnVar following 5 years using developed components
– Surface, sonde, AMSU-A, IASI, AIRS data processing developed
No DA
U
V
T
q
Sonde
Sonde+AIRS
Result from OSSE exp. Using Ensemble DA
34