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These materials are subject to Copyright and their use is permitted for individual study purposes. They may not be
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The prevalence and crash involvement of
unlicensed drivers in Queensland
Barry Watson
Presentation to Victorian Chapter of the ACRS: 21 May 2012
CRICOS No. 00213J
Acknowledgements
 MAIC funded program of research administered by
Transport & Main Roads (TMR) and assisted by
Queensland Police Service (QPS):
– TMR: Sam Bailey, Nerida Leal, Pam Palmer and Sally
Samuals
– QPS: Kelly Sultana, Senior Sergeant Dan Heenan
 CARRS-Q research team:
– Dr Kerry Armstrong, Angela Watson, Kerrie
Livingstone, Adrian Wilson, Peter Barraclough
Overview
 Road safety implications of unlicensed driving
 Present results from two studies conducted in
Queensland examining:
 the crash involvement of unlicensed drivers and the
risks associated with the behaviour
 the prevalence of unlicensed driving using a roadside
survey method
 Countermeasure options
Road safety implications of
unlicensed driving
 Undermines licensing system
 reduces ability to monitor & manage drivers
 undermines deterrent effect of licence loss
 Impact on road toll
 crashes involving at least one unlicensed driver
account for 10% of deaths in Aust. and 20% in USA
 Link with high risk driving
 drink driving, speeding, motorcycle use
 more deviant, repeat offending
Sources: Griffin & DeLaZerda, 2000; Scopatz et al., 2003; Watson, 1997, 2004a
Study 1: Analysis of crash data
 Rationale
• To examine the crash involvement patterns of
unlicensed drivers and compare them with those
of licensed drivers
Sources: Watson, 2004a,c; Watson & Steinhardt, 2006, 2007; Watson et al., in preparation
Method (1)
 Analysed six years of Queensland road crash
data (2003 - 2008)
 Compared unlicensed drivers and licensed
drivers involved in crashes
 Included car, truck and bus drivers and
motorcycle riders
 Examined all crash types, but focused on fatal
and serious injury crashes
 Not all categories of unlicensed driver are
individually identified in database
Method (2)
 Used quasi-induced exposure method to
estimate exposure and risk of involvement in a
crash for different groups
− previously used by DeYoung, Peck & Helander
(1997) in California
− based on the assumption that the innocent parties in
a multi-vehicle crash are incidental to the event and
hence represent a random sample of drivers
− used unit numbers assigned in database to identify
drivers considered at fault by the police
Method (3)
 Quasi-induced exposure method:
− Involvement rate (IR) =
−
% at fault
% innocent
− Crash (ratio) rate = IR for unlicensed drivers
−
IR for licensed drivers
− Introduces in a range of potential biases related to:
limiting analysis to multi-vehicle crashes
how the police assess fault in crashes
Study 1: Results (1)
1. Do unlicensed drivers engage in more
risky driving than other drivers?
Overall crash involvement

During the period, unlicensed drivers
represented:
–
8.9% of drivers involved in fatal crashes
–
5.1% of drivers involved in serious injury
(hospitalisation) crashes
–
3.1% of drivers involved in minor injury crashes
–
3.8% of drivers in property damage only (PDO)
crashes
–
3.8% of drivers involved in total crashes
Serious casualty crashes by involvement
of alcohol & drugs: Queensland 2003-08
%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
92.2
64.1
35.9
Present
Not present
7.8
Licensed
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
Unlicensed
2 (df1) = 2309.1, p < .001
Serious casualty crashes by involvement
of excessive speed: Queensland 2003-08
%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
95.9
83.6
Speeding
Not speeding
16.4
4.1
Licensed
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
Unlicensed
2 (1) = 863.1, p < .001
Serious casualty crashes by type of
vehicle: Queensland 2003-08
100
90
Car
Motorcycle
Truck/bus
82.8
74.5
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
22.8
10.7
6.5
10
2.7
0
Licensed
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
Unlicensed
2 (2) = 390.6, p < .001
Serious casualty crashes by unit
considered at fault: Queensland 2003-08
87.6
90
80
70
60.2
60
%
50
39.8
At fault
40
30
Not at fault
20
12.4
10
0
Licensed
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
Unlicensed
2 (1) = 787.5, p < .001
Study 1: Results (2)
2. Is unlicensed driving associated with a
higher crash risk compared to legal
driving?

Risk of involvement in a crash

Severity of crashes
Risk of involvement in a multi-vehicle crash
by driver type for Queensland: 2000-04
Driver Group
Licensed
Fatal Crashes
1.00
n=1268
1.00
n=163298
4.08
(2.03 – 8.18)
n=88
3.02
(2.76 – 3.32)
n=4311
9.47
(6.07 – 14.78)
n=387
2.85
(2.51 – 3.23)
n=2167
3.17
(2.63 – 3.82)
n=1055
2.15
(1.70 – 2.72)
n=557
2.54
(1.58 – 4.08)
n=145
drivers1
All unlicensed drivers
Total Crashes
Never licensed drivers
Disqualified/suspended
drivers
Other unlicensed drivers
Inappropriate class
Expired licence drivers
1. Primary reference category
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
Severity of crashes involving licensed
and unlicensed drivers: Qld 2003-08
78.7
80
70.2
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
29.8
Serious casualty
crashes
Other crashes
21.3
10
0
Licensed
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
Unlicensed
2 (df1) = 359.6, p < .001
Risk of involvement in a serious casualty
crash relative to a minor crash in Qld: 2003-08
Type of driver
Odds ratio risk
99% CI
All licensed drivers1
1.00
----
All unlicensed drivers
1.57
1.48 – 1.67
Inappropriate class
5.37
4.03 – 7.16
Never licensed
1.65
1.41 – 1.92
Disqualified/suspended
1.50
1.37 – 1.64
Expired
1.27
1.04 – 1.55
Other unlicensed
1.44
1.27 – 1.64
1. Primary reference category
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
Study 1: Results (3)
3. Do unlicensed drivers represent a homogenous
group?

Unlicensed drivers involved in serious casualty
crashes are more likely to:

be male (81% vs 65%)

be under 24 yrs of age (48% vs 26% )

ride motorcycles (23% vs 11%)

be involved in crashes at night (47% vs 27%) and on
weekends (34% vs 25%)

be involved in single vehicle crashes (58% vs 27%)

be involved in crashes involving risky behaviours
Study 1: Results (4)
3. Do unlicensed drivers represent a homogenous
group?


Never licensed and disqualified/suspended drivers
emerged as problem sub-groups
Important differences between unlicensed drivers
and riders crash involvement
Proportion of unlicensed controllers
in fatal crashes in Queensland
25
% Unlicensed
20
15
10
5
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Motorcycle Riders
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
Drivers
All
2008
Proportion of unlicensed controllers
in total crashes in Queensland
12
% Unlicensed
10
8
6
4
2
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Motorcycle Riders
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
Drivers
All
2008
Proportion of controllers involved in serious
casualty crashes, by alcohol/drugs
Unlicensed
Licensed
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Motorcycle Riders
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Drivers
All
Proportion of controllers involved in
serious casualty crashes, by speeding
Unlicensed
Licensed
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Motorcycle Riders
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Drivers
All
Differences between unlicensed
drivers and motorcycle riders
 Many similarities in the crash involvement
patterns of unlicensed drivers and riders
 over-representation in serious crashes
 these crashes are more likely to involve high-risk
behaviours
 Long-term crash involvement of unlicensed
drivers appears stable, compared to riders
 Suggests that countermeasures have not had a
differential impact on unlicensed drivers
Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR
Study 2: Roadside licence
check survey
Study Aims
 To estimate the prevalence of unlicensed
driving on Queensland roads
 Compare findings with data relating to the
crash involvement of unlicensed drivers
 Provide additional information as to whether
or not unlicensed drivers are overrepresented in crashes
Method (1)
 Survey conducted in conjunction with routine Random
Breath Testing of heavy vehicle and normal traffic, from
18th February 2010 to 24th April 2010 between the
hours of 8:00am and 10:00pm
− Heavy vehicles not specifically targeted
− Other vehicles stopped randomly during operation
 The majority of the data was collected in March 2010
(47.8%), with the remainder divided fairly evenly
between February (24.1%) and April (28.1%) 2010
Method (2)
 3,112 drivers were intercepted and surveyed by
Queensland Police Officers
 Drivers not producing a licence advised to present it later
at a Police Station
 No survey-related follow-up action taken in relation to
these drivers, although this would have occurred as part
of normal policing practice
Materials (1)
 Data collection form developed by CARRS-Q with
Queensland Police Service and Transport & Main Roads,
consisting of:
 Vehicle information
− vehicle registration number
− status of the vehicle registration (e.g., current, expired)
 Driver information
− customer reference number (CRN) on the licence card
− driver’s date of birth (collected for cross checking to ensure
integrity and accuracy of data entry)
− Queensland, interstate or international driver licence
Materials (2)
 Driver information cont’d:
− whether or not licence was produced at the time of interception
− licence status; includes whether driver has an invalid licence status,
driver charged with unlicensed driving at the time of interception or if
driver holds a learner licence
− reason for driver being unlicensed; (court disqualification, demerit
point suspension, State Penalties Enforcement Registry (SPER)
suspension, expired, learner unaccompanied, never held a licence,
incorrect class of vehicle, or unknown)
− driver’s full name and date of birth (if failed to produce their physical
licence card) - used to check whether they possess a valid licence
recorded within the TRAILS database;
− the result of any random breath test performed, e.g., negative or
positive
Results (1)
Initial Analysis
 3,008 (96.7%) of the 3,112 drivers intercepted, produced
a licence at the roadside, whereas 104 (3.3%) did not
 Of these 3,008 drivers that did produce a licence, 22
(0.7%) were identified by the police at the time to be
driving unlicensed or unaccompanied
 Within this group:
− nine held an expired licence (0.3%)
− four held a SPER suspension
− one was operating a vehicle with the wrong class of licence
− eight were driving unaccompanied with only a Learner
Licence (0.3%)
Results (2)
 Of the 104 drivers who did not produce a licence
roadside, nine (8.7%) were identified by the police at the
time as driving unlicensed or unaccompanied
 Within this group:
− one held an expired licence (1.0%)
− four held a SPER suspension (3.8%)
− one was operating a vehicle with the wrong class of
licence (1.0%)
− three were driving unaccompanied with only a learner
licence (2.9%)
Results (3)
Interim summary
 3,081 (99%) of drivers intercepted by the police
were identified as having a valid licence
 31 (1.0%) drivers were unlicensed (n = 23) or
unaccompanied (n = 8)
 Of these 31 drivers, 29 held a Queensland
driver’s licence, while one held a NSW licence
(expired) and one held a Tasmanian licence
(learner accompanied)
Roadside licence check surveys conducted by
Police region
49% of surveys were conducted in the greater Brisbane area,
encompassing the Metropolitan South and Metropolitan North regions
Police Service Regions involvement
Regions involved
Far Northern
Metropolitan North
Metropolitan South
North Coast
Northern
South Eastern
Southern
Population
276,515
656,725
724,089
848,544
282,306
842,057
513,191
% of total
Pop*
6.7
15.8
17.5
20.5
6.8
20.3
12.4
% of drivers
intercepted
11.7
20.9
28.2
7.5
9.6
13.7
8.9
* Excludes Central Queensland Region which did not participate
Roadside licence check surveys
conducted by days of the week
35
30
Percentage %
25
20
15
10
5
0
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Day of the week
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Additional Analysis (1)

Survey data collected by Qld Police Services was sent to
TMR to match participant information with official licensing
records

Data matching undertaken by TMR identified an additional
nine drivers not validly licensed at the time of the survey

During the roadside licence check, nine drivers produced a
seemingly valid licence to police, but were technically
unlicensed at the time of interception

Of these additional unlicensed drivers:
−
six had a SPER suspension
−
two had a demerit suspension
−
one had an immediate licence disqualification
Additional Analysis (2)
Summary
 After matching roadside licence checks to the
TRAILS database:
– 29 drivers were determined to be unlicensed
(1.0%)
– 11 were driving unaccompanied on a Learner
Licence (0.4%)
Results by Police Service Regions
Regions involved
Far Northern
Metropolitan North
Metropolitan South
North Coast
Northern
South Eastern
Southern
% of total
Pop*
6.7
15.8
17.5
20.5
6.8
20.3
12.4
% of drivers % of unlic.
intercepted detected
11.7
3.0
20.9
0.8
28.2
0.6
7.5
0.0
9.6
2.0
13.7
1.0
8.9
0.0
* Excludes Central Queensland Region which did not participate
Other findings
 The overall sample contained predominantly male drivers
(60.5%), with ages ranging from 16 to 87 years old (M = 42.52,
SD = 15.14)
 No gender differences were found between the licensed and
unlicensed drivers/riders
 A slightly higher proportion of the unlicensed drivers/riders had
at least one speeding infringement, compared to licensed
drivers/riders, but this difference was not statistically significant
 105 drivers (3.4%) were driving an unregistered vehicle. Of
these, five were also unlicensed/unaccompanied, while two
were unaccompanied learners
 Unregistered vehicles represented 2.9% of all vehicles
observed in 2010 observational study undertaken by CARRS-Q
Study implications (1)
 As noted earlier, the crash statistics indicate that
unlicensed drivers represent:
− 3.8% of drivers involved in crashes of all severity
− 5.1% of those involved in serious injury crashes
(hospitalisation crashes)
− 8.9% of those involved in fatal crashes
 This study provides confirmation that unlicensed drivers
are over represented in official crash statistics (both in
total and more severe crashes)
 This preliminary investigation provides important
exposure data relating to the incidence of unlicensed
driving, but needs further replication
Study implications (2)
 The rate of unlicensed driving found in the study was lower than
the 2.4% found in a 1991 study conducted in NSW (also
conducted in conjunction with RBT)
 This discrepancy may be due to underlying differences in the
extent of unlicensed driving across the two jurisdictions over time,
or reflect differences in the representativeness of the two samples
 It is unclear whether the sampling strategy utilised in this study is
truly representative of the Queensland driving population
 The current study may more accurately reflect behaviours in the
Brisbane metropolitan area with almost 50.0% of the surveys
being conducted in Metro North and Metro South police regions
 Further investigations using an enhanced methodology is required
to establish the representativeness of the data
Countermeasure options
 Administrative policies




Compulsory carriage of licence
Requirement to surrender revoked/suspended licences
Valid licence required to register motor vehicles
Restricted licences available for work purposes
 Enforcement practices
 Targeted licence checking e.g. using Automatic
Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) technology
 Random licence checking
 Incorporating licence checking into other activities e.g.
random breath testing (RBT)
 Improving roadside access to licensing information
APPENDIX A: DRIVER LICENCE INTERCEPTION SURVEY
Driver Licence Interception Covering Report
Shift Information
Date:
Start Time:
Finish Time:
Location Information
Region (where licence survey is being conducted)
Road:
Suburb:
Site Safety Officer Information
Officer Name:
Officer Station:
Officer Rego #:
RBT Information
Total number of RBT's conducted in this location
APPENDIX A cont’d: DATA COLLECTION FORM
Vehicle Details
Rego #
Rego Valid
□ Yes □ No
Driver Details
Licence Produced
□ Yes □ No
Interstate:
Licence #
Unlicensed/Unaccompanied
If unlicensed / unaccompanied give
reason:
D.O.B.
□ Yes □ No □ Not Determined
□ Court Disqualification
□ Expired
□ Points Suspension
□ Never held licence
□ SPER Suspension
□ Incorrect class of vehicle
□ Learner Unaccompanied
□ Unknown
Surname:
Given Name:
If unlicensed / unaccompanied,
please fill in these fields
Comments: (optional)
Driver Prosecuted
□ Yes □ No □ N/A
Roadside RBT
□ Neg □ Pos □ N/A