Transcript Wintertime Component of T-PARC Jan 2009 – March 2009 Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth Talk prepared by Song &Toth reduced and given by Burridge.

Wintertime Component of T-PARC
Jan 2009 – March 2009
Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth
Talk prepared by Song &Toth reduced and
given by Burridge on behalf of Uccelini who is
in the KMA - questions to Uccelini tomorrow!
Environmental Modeling Center
NOAA/NWS/NCEP
USA
Acknowledgements: Rick Rosen, Louis Uccellini, John Gaynor
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tparc/
CAS Technical Conference, 15-16 November
2009, Incheon, Korea
Collaborative Effort of Multiple Agencies
CONTRIBUTORS / PARTICIPANTS
• Funding for observing assets
– NOAA, Env. Canada, Roshydromet, Japan
• Science / operational aspects
– US, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Japan, ECMWF/UKMO
(including Universities and Institutions)
• Data archiving
– NASA Langley Research Center
Ackn: John Murray and Jared Entin (NASA)
MAIN THEME OF WINTER T-PARC
Study the lifecycle of perturbations as they originate from the tropics, Asia,
and/or the polar front, travel through the Pacific waveguide, and affect high
impact wintertime weather events over North America and the Arctic
Tropical flare-ups in
western Pacific (IR)
merge with
Waves on westerly flow
to influence
Deep cyclogenesis in
northeast Pacific
Captured by Ensemble Transform
KF targeting method
Sensitive area 1,
00UTC 11 Oct
Sensitive area 2,
00UTC 11 Oct
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Verification region,
12UTC 14 Oct
SCIENCE HYPOTHESES
•
Rossby-wave propagation plays a major role in the development of high impact
weather events over North America and the Arctic on the 3-5 days forecast time
scale
•
Additional remotely sensed and in situ data can complement the standard
observational network in capturing critical multi-scale processes in Rossby-wave
initiation and propagation
•
Adaptive configuration of the observing network and data processing can
significantly improve the quality of data assimilation and forecast products
• Regime dependent planning/targeting
• Case dependent targeting
•
New DA, modeling and ensemble methods can better capture and predict the
initiation and propagation of Rossby-waves leading to high impact events
•
Forecast products, including those developed as part of the TPARC research, will
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have significant social and/or economic value
ENHANCED OBSERVING PLATFORMS
Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase
allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations
as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and North America
Day -4-6
RAWIN
Russia
D -2-4
G-IV
Winter T-PARC platform statistics
NOAA G-IV:
24 successful missions, 201hrs flown with
456 dropsondes
Out of Japan during Jan 11 to Feb 26, 2009
USAF C-130s:
14 successful missions, 142.8hrs flown
with 212 dropsondes
Out of Alaska during Jan 20 to Feb 13, 2009
E-AMDAR from Lufthansa airlines:
(Descents and Ascents: boxed area)
Total: 802+1103=1905 profiles
7040+10600=17640 en route obs
From Jan 11 – Feb 28, 2009
Enhanced Russia RAOBS:
Total 602 radiosondes released
from 37 selected stations for 33 cases
From Jan 12 to Feb 28, 2009
March 1, 2009 CA Storm
• Weather event with
a large societal impact
• Each GFS run
verified against its
own analysis – 60 hr
forecast
• Impact on surface
pressure verification
• RMS error
improvement: 35.2%
(7.07mb vs. 9.56mb)
Surface pressure from analysis
(hPa; solid contours)
Forecast Improvement (hPa, red)
Forecast Degradation (hPa, blue)
Targeted in high impact
weather area marked by
the circle
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Overall results for Surface pressure
(T-PARC 2009)
Error without Dropsondes
Error reductions on a
case-by-case basis as
much as 35%
Improved
Target
Area
Verification
Area
Degraded
Verification Domain
Location/Time: case dependent
Size: same for every case
(1,000 km radius / sfc to 100mb)
Error with Dropsondes
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T-PARC Summary statistics
Variable
# cases
improved
# cases
neutral
#cases
degraded
Surface pressure
37
0
15
Temperature
35
0
17
Vector Wind
36
0
16
Humidity
28
0
24
39
OVERALL POSITIVE CASES.
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OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES.
75% improved
25% degraded
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TARGETED DROPSONDE IMPACT ON 24H FORECAST ERROR IN NOGAPS/NAVDAS
Jan 20/12UTC high impact per-observation
Courtesy of Rolf Langland
Summed impact of dropsonde
observations (error reduction is
NEGATIVE, units are J kg-1)
TARGETED RADIOSONDE IMPACT ON 24H FORECAST ERROR IN NOGAPS/NAVDAS
JANUARY 2009
Error Reduction
JANUARY 2009
Error Increase
1x10-3 J kg-1 (Moist Total Energy Norm)
Total # of targeted radiosonde data =
27,508 (06UTC and 18UTC)
Number of targeted radiosonde profiles
= 247 (33 stations provided at least
one profile)
Total targeted radiosonde impact = 0.4322 J kg-1
For comparison: 00UTC and 12UTC
observations from these same stations: 4.24 J kg-1 and 2,154 profiles during all of
January 2009
Total # targeted LH-EAMDAR
ascent/descent data = 17,444 (12-31
January 2009)
Total targeted LH-EAMDAR impact = 0.583 J kg-1
GLOBAL Lufthansa AMDAR ascent/descent
impact = -2.89 J kg-1 and 113,151 data during
all of January 2009
Courtesy of Rolf Langland
Summary and Plans
• Field phase successfully completed
– First time vertical profiling of winter storms west of the dateline
• Data archived at NASA (LARC)
• Ideal framework for wide variety of research opportunities
–
–
–
–
–
Dynamical /physical processes
Storm initiation/propagation
Role of moist processes
Interaction of tropical convection with extra-tropical storms
Socio-economical impact studies
• Need to identify funding resources for further research
• Ongoing evaluation
– NRL preliminary evaluation
• large positive impact on the 24hr forecast
• more than 90% of targeted observations reduced forecast errors
– NCEP data denial experiments
• Full T-PARC targeted data rejection – major impact
• Rejection of aircraft data only (ongoing)
• Proposed joint meeting with summer T-PARC next year