Transcript Climate service for the tropical Pacific region – what do users need and what can we provide? Luke He(1), Marina Timofeyeva(2), Tony.

Climate service for the tropical Pacific region
– what do users need and what can we provide?
Luke He(1), Marina Timofeyeva(2), Tony Barnston(3), Chip Guard(4), Julie Earp(5)
Eileen Shea(6), Jim Weyman(7), Melissa Finucane(8), Pao-Shin Chu(9)
(1) Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA
(2) Climate Service Division, NWS/NOAA
(3) International Research Institute for Climate & Society
(4) Weather Forecast Office in Guam, NWS/NOAA
(5) Pacific ENSO Application Center
(6) NOAA IDEA Center, NCDC/NOAA
(7) Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu, NWS/NOAA
(8) Pacific Regional Integrated Science and Assessment
(9) Hawaii State Climate Office, University of Hawaii
34th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop
Monterey, CA
October 26-30, 2009
Challenges?
Sea level rise
Increasing water temperatures
Increased storm intensity
Coastal inundation and erosion
Ocean acidification
Incidences of coral disease
Invasion of non-native species
Climate changes affecting coastal and marine ecosystems will have major
implications for tourism and fisheries
Island communities, infrastructure and ecosystems vulnerable to coastal
inundation due to sea level rise and coastal storms
The availability of freshwater is likely to be reduced with significant implications
for communities, economies and resources
…
Secular temperature changes in Hawaii
temperature changes in the Hawaiian Islands for the past ~85 years
based on an index of 21 stations. The Hawaii Temperature Index is plotted along with the annual PDO values. Results show a
relatively rapid rise in surface temperature in the last ~30 years, surface temperature in Hawaii has varied coherently with
changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, in recent decades, the secular warming has begun to predominate,
such that despite the recent cooling associated with the PDO, surface temperatures in Hawaii have remained elevated. The
greater warming trend at the higher elevations may have significant ecological impacts. Red – Hawaii Temperature Index, BluePDO/SST, Thick lines show 7-yr running means.
Giambelluca, T. W., H. F. Diaz, and M. S. A. Luke (2008): Secular
Air Temperature Change,
Observed and Projected, 1900 to 2100
Pacific Islands
Air temperatures have increased over the last 100 years in the Pacific Island.
Larger increases are projected in the future, with higher emissions scenarios 91 producing considerably greater increases
Relative to 1960-1979 average (black, green, red, blue)
.
ENSO Related Rainfall Patterns over the Tropical Pacific
Enhanced rainfall
occurs over
warmer-thanaverage waters
during El Niño.
Reduced rainfall
occurs over colderthan-average
waters during La
Niña.
Research has shown that short-term global climate fluctuations such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have an important
role in the climate variability in the tropical Pacific islands. The Pacific Islands are ideally situated as a testing ground for a regional climate
information service.
Motivation
To give users a good picture about the drought intensity and frequency, seasonal/interannual/decadal rainfall variability, effect of ENSO for the Pacific region.
To establish a solid background and have a good reference for the long-lead rainfall forecast for Pacific islands.
66 Pacific Rainfall Stations (including Hawaii and US-Affiliated Islands)
Effects of ENSO
At the off-equator
Stations (such as many
of the U.S.-affiliated
islands), warm ENSO
is associated with
below normal rainfall
All of these effects tend
to occur in reverse for
cold ENSO episodes.
At the near-equatorial
stations from the dateline
eastward to the South
American coast, rainfall is
enhanced with El Nino.
Rainfall ENSO composite. Dotted line – climatological mean; Solid line – rainfall composite of warm ENSO events; Dashed line – rainfall composite of cold ENSO events;
Hollow square – rainfall warm ENSO composite passing the significant test at the 0.05 level;. Solid square – rainfall cold ENSO composite passing the significant test at the 0.05 level
.
Annual Rainfall Cycle
Box-and-whiskers plots (over 12 running 3 month periods): (a) Honolulu: relatively wet winters & dry summers; (b) Fanning and Christmas:
surrounded by a somewhat cool ocean most of the year, receive fairly light climatological rainfall, but with very large positive deviations
occurring during El Niño episodes.
Seasonal Rainfall Variation
Histogram: red-50%ile, blue-25%ile and 75%ile. From March-April-May 1995 through May-June-July 1996 (spanning 15 running 3 month periods), the rainfall was at
or below the median.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/
ENSO Information
The 1997–1998 El Niño event offers a vivid example of what climate means to people in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific
Islands and how information about potential consequences can be used to support decision-making and benefit
society. Alerted users over the Pacific region through briefings, forecasts and public information campaigns about
the potential impacts of ENSO (Hamnett et al., 2000, Shea et al., 2001).
–
–
In June 1997, alerted governments in the USAPI that a strong El Niño was developing.
By September 1997, warned of impending droughts and called for water rationing.
Advance warning by PEAC helped USAPI communities mitigate many negative impacts of 1997-98 El Niño.
– Drought response plans developed
– Aggressive public information and education campaigns
– Implemented water conservation and rationing plans
Despite severe losses to agriculture and fisheries, planning and mitigation minimized long-lasting impacts
(national Research Council, 1999).
Securing Water Resources
In the islands, “water is gold.”
Pohnpei State created a billboard in three languages saying, "El Niño is Here" to provide a continuous visual alert and encourage water conservation in
preparation for the 1997 to 1998 El Niño.
Monthly PEAC Climate Teleconference
Motivation: To increase 1) the regional NWS representatives’ education and awareness of seasonal climate variability and 2)
the climate scientists understanding of the regional and local climate information needs.
Participants: PEAC, CPC, IRI, University of Hawaii, University of Guam, International Pacific Research Center, Pacific RISA,
FEMA, NWS-Pacific Region Climate Services Program Managers and WSO Climate Service Focal Points (Guam, Chuuk,
Majuro, American Samoa, Pohnpei, Palau, Yap, Kwajalein)
Monthly Pacific ENSO Application Center Climate Teleconference
Agenda for the Climate Teleconferences
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Monthly rainfall report and verification of last season's forecast.
Reports (climate events) from around the region.
Sea level discussion.
ENSO and climate diagnostic discussion.
Rainfall Forecast discussion and consensus.
Monthly PEAC Teleconference
Rainfall Outlooks
Focus on USAPI and Hawaii rainfall outlooks
7 climate forecast models (NCEP CFS, CA, NASA, IRI, UKMO, ECMWF and PRIDE)
NCEP CFS
UKMO
NCEP CA
ECMWF
NASA NSIPP
IRI
PRIDE
PRIDE Rainfall Forecast Model
NCEP
CFS Forecast
Multi-model superensemble
(MME) based on Krishnamurti
et al. (1999)
NCEP CA
Statistical Forecast
UH
IPRC Forecast
MME Forecast
over Tropical
Pacific
Downscaling MME Forecast
to Individual Islands
(PEAC)
Supported by NOAA PRIDE PROJECT
PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook
Example: USAPI Seasonal Rainfall Outlook issued for October-December 2009
Monthly PEAC Teleconference
Sea Level Outlooks
Sea-level forecasts issued monthly, published quarterly in
PEAC newsletter
– Sea level in Pacific is highly correlated to ENSO
high sea levels associated with La Nina are becoming very important
(During La Nina year, the sea level rise ranges from 50 to 300 mm and with storm surge event the rise may become even higher).
– Predict rise/fall for 10 locations across USAPI and Hawaii
Additional sea level products available on website
– Seasonal tide predictions
– Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) products
ENSO and Sea-level Variability
– Historical Perspectives
S El Niño: 1951, 58, 72, 82, & 97/ (Yr,0)
S La Niña: 1964, 73, 75, 88, 98 (Yr, 0)
Year (0)
(+1)
Year (0)
Year (0)
(+1)
(+1)
M El Niño: 1963, 65, 69, 74, & 87
M La Niña: 1956, 70, 71, 84, 99
Year (0)
Year (0)
(+1)
(+1)
Predicting sea level change is a complex, challenging, and long-term problem
Observed Sea Level Trends: 1993-2008
Total Sea Level (Altimetry)
Thermosteric Sea Level (XBTs, Argo, etc..)
The left figure shows the patterns of sea level trends over a 15 year period. The right shows the sea level trends caused by the warming of
the ocean estimated from ARGO, and XBT. the ocean warming can explain part of the change.
J. Willis/JPL
Unknown systematic errors
m/yr
Predicting sea level
change is a complex,
challenging, and
long-term problem.
Now for the first time we have 3 global observing systems to decipher the causes of sea level change. Altimetry measures the net sea level change. A
system of more than 3000 automated profiling floats, called ARGO, measures the density of the upper ocean and thus the steric component of sea level.
A US-Germany joint mission called GRACE, using the relative motion of two spacecrafts to measure the changing gravity of earth from which the changing
mass of the ocean resulting from the addition of fresh water, can be detected.
These three systems allow us to check the consistency of each other and our understanding of the causes of sea level change.
Monthly PEAC Teleconference
Pacific ENSO Update
Quarterly PEAC Newsletter
Rainfall summaries and outlooks for RMI, FSM,
Palau, Guam, CNMI, Hawaii and American Samoa
Tropical cyclone outlook, SOI, sea surface temps and
sea-level forecasts
Over 400 copies mailed out to over 40 countries
Website visitors can join listserv from PEAC website
– Automatically receive updates by email
– http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/listserve/subscribe.html
User Training, Workshop/Meeting
June 2004, Pacific ENSO Application Center Regional Workshop:
A Look to the Future (PEAC First Decade Review): PEAC - a very
successful program—Why? Customer-driven and good partners
Trust and credibility are essential and they take time to build (“eyeballto-eyeball” communication important)
“The forecast program out here has really been successful. One of the
reasons is that we listen to the customers and implement new
information that they need” (NWS Guam Climate Service Focal Point )
PACIFIC CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM
(PaCIS)
The Pacific Climate Information System (PaCIS) is being developed to integrate ongoing climate observations, operational forecasting services, research, modeling, assessment,
information management and education and create the framework for a successful climate service in the Pacific. Through PaCIS’s programmatic framework and overall strategic
guidance, climate principle stakeholders will strengthen their ability to integrate their knowledge, form partnerships and identify and advocate for opportunities to improve climate services
in the Pacific. The dialogue supported by PaCIS will enable the “Team Pacific” to more effectively understand and advocate for their needs on a regional versus individual level.
Steering Committee
Representatives of participating institutions, key
stakeholders and program experts
Working Group I
User
Engagement,
Education and
Outreach
• User feedback / dialogue
• Public education materials
• Support local experts
(including WSOs)
Working Group II
Working Group III
Operational
Climate
Observations,
Products & Svcs
Research and
Assessment
• Product development
and
evaluation
• Consistent and coordinated
regional services
• Regional observation and
data management
• Regional downscaling
and local applications
• Understand climate
extremes & consequences
• Assess vulnerability and
inform adaptation
PACIFIC CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM
(PaCIS)
Vision:
Resilient and sustainable Pacific communities using climate information to manage risks and
support practical decision-making in the context of climate variability and change
Mission Objectives:
Clarify climate information needs and guide monitoring, research and assessment;
Provide access to critical data, research and new climate information products and services;
Translate research and assessment results into useful and usable climate information;
Interpret global and regional climate forecasts and projections for local applications;
Enhance regional and local skills and capabilities to manage risks and support sustainable development in the
context of climate variability and change; and
Enhance collaboration among national, regional and international institutions and programs involved in climate
The PaCIS has been identified as an early
regional climate services core program for NOAA.
Future Plan
• Support development of PaCIS portal and regional climate testbed;
• Expansion of Pacific Rainfall Atlas by including precipitation extremes and tropical cyclone;
• Improve PRIDE rainfall and sea level forecasts;
• Research on the impact of climate fluctuation such as ENSO, MJO and PDO;
• Variability and predictability of seasonal/and catastrophic hazardous events for the USAPI;
• Apply more useful forecast tools to the tropical Pacific region;
• Users training/Education;
• A Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System for the Hawaii and US-affiliated tropical
Pacific Islands;
...
Summary
(1) Pacific Island communities are most vulnerable to climate variability and change. The Climate Change presents the Pacific region
with unique challenges.
(2) Short-term global climate fluctuations such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have an important role in the
climate variability in the tropical Pacific islands. Timely and effective climate forecasts and assessment information are very useful for
the decision makers and users across many economic sectors of the Pacific region (Water resource management, Fisheries and
coastal zone management, Agriculture, Disaster managers, and Tourism).
(3 ) PaCIS will provide a better climate service for the Pacific region.
We, Team Pacific, are working hard to improve our climate forecast and climate service, and do our best to serve our users over the
Pacific region
Thanks!
Comment & Suggestion?
[email protected]