Transcript Long Term Study Scenarios and Generation Expansion Update December 7, 2012 Drought Scenario(s) • Premise: A long-term drought would begin in 2018 and.

Long Term Study Scenarios and
Generation Expansion Update
December 7, 2012
Drought Scenario(s)
• Premise: A long-term drought would begin in 2018 and last for about 6 years
• Three major adjustments made to the data for this scenario
‒ Capacity reductions were made to existing generation due to lack of
water or high intake/discharge water temperatures
‒ Increase costs of water were added to new thermal expansion generating
units
‒ Forecasted load used Moody’s base economic assumptions with
ERCOT’S 2011 load shape
• Additional sensitivities were added to the drought scenario so the impact of
water issues could be seen in isolation
‒ Sensitivity 1 removed the PTC and removed the emission costs (S5A)
‒ Sensitivity 2 removed the PTC, removed the emission costs and reduced
the EIA reference gas price by $2 MMBtu (S5B)
December 7, 2012
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Drought Scenario(s)
Black and Veatch (B&V) reviewed the Sandia work and the following information
to estimate generating unit capacity reductions:
• Water Supply Availability
‒ Evaluation of rainfall patterns on an annual and monthly basis
‒ Single-year and multi-year drought scenarios
‒ Reservoir/lake levels and withdrawals out of those reservoirs
• Surface water temperature for lake-cooled supplies
• Cooling Technology
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Drought Scenario(s)
Example capacity derations for multi-year drought
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Drought Scenario(s)
Water costs by weather zone were estimated by B&V by analyzing:
• Current water costs by weather zone
‒ Agricultural/Raw water – low cost
‒ Water Authority wholesale or basic treatment
‒ Municipality potable treated water or reuse – High cost
• Estimate of infrastructure availability (will additional infrastructure be
required if new water source is required)
‒ Urban/water source rich areas – low cost
‒ Rural/water source poor areas – high cost
• Weather patterns
‒ High Rainfall (East, Coast) – low cost
‒ Mid (Central and Southern)
‒ Low rainfall (West, Far West) – high cost
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Weather Zone
COAST
EAST
NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH
SOUTH
WEST
FAR WEST
$/MWh
$0.22
$0.24
$0.36
$0.38
$0.44
$0.48
$0.63
$0.76
Drought Scenario(s)
From the Initial B&V review ERCOT was divided into three water regions.
Existing generating stations are also shown
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Drought Scenario(s)
• In general, results have shown that large amounts of wind and solar
generation are built in scenarios that include the PTC, emission costs and/or
high natural gas prices.
• Results of S5A include 13,000 MWs of additional wind and 11,000 MWs of
solar and 16,690 MWs new NG generation
• Results of S5B, which has a lower NG price, only 5,500 MWs of new wind is
being built and most of that is not built until 2032 when the price of NG
exceeds $6.00 MMBtu. 19,695 MWs new NG generation were also added
• Early results of S5C substantial amounts of both wind and solar are being built
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Drought Scenario(s)
• Both S5A and S5B indicate that the natural gas price needs to be greater than
$6.00 MMBtu for wind to be economical
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2032 Summary of Scenario Results
*These retirements resulted from the economic retirement process based on profitability, age, and efficiency.
All scenarios with the exception of BAT Retirements include the updated wind shapes from AWS TruePower.
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Comparison of Results: 2032 Generation Breakdown
As increasing amounts of wind, solar and geothermal proved to be economical,
the amount of energy provided by renewables increased from 13% in the BAT w/
Retirements scenario to 63% in the Environmental Scenario.
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Remaining Scenarios
•
Drought S5C – Original Drought Scenario, About 50% complete
•
BAU All Tech with the PTC, 20% complete
•
Environmental with EE and DR mandates
•
BAU All Tech with increased Asynchronous Ties
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APPENDIX
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Drought S5A
Description
Units
CC Adds
CT Adds
Coal Adds
Nuclear Adds
CAES Adds
Geothermal Adds
Gravity Power Adds
Solar Adds
Wind Adds
Annual Capacity Additions
Cumulative Capacity Additions
Retirements
Residential Demand Response
Industrial Demand Response
Reserve Margin
Coincident Peak
Average LMP
Natural Gas Price
Average Market Heat Rate
Natural Gas Generation
Coal Generation
Wind Generation
Solar Generation
Scarcity Hours
Unserved Energy
SO2
CO2
NOx
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
%
MW
$/M Wh
$/mmbtu
M M btu/M Wh
%
%
%
%
HRS
GWhs
Tons
(k) Tons
December 7, 2012
Tons
2016
9,010
300
523
9,833
9,833
2.89
86,113
52.78
4.64
11.38
45.1
33.1
10.8
22.0
25.5
356,652
254,938
279,508
2019
2,400
510
700
2,500
1,211
7,321
17,154
2.74
91,068
59.19
5.23
11.32
44.6
31.5
12.4
1.1
24.0
27.5
355,660
250,014
275,042
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2022
1,500
2,000
3,680
7,180
24,334
1.73
94,728
63.42
6.13
10.35
42.4
31.4
17.3
1.9
25.0
39.4
355,081
245,345
270,869
2025
170
1,100
2,000
2,738
6,008
30,342
0.19
98,666
69.38
6.97
9.95
38.2
29.1
20.4
2.6
15.0
9.5
356,699
243,602
269,274
2028
510
2,000
4,533
7,043
37,385
500
(2.22)
103,502
77.82
7.88
9.88
35.9
28.2
23.3
3.3
30.0
38.7
353,838
243,465
269,997
2032
1,200
2,890
2,500
346
6,936
44,321
500
(1.75)
108,981
88.05
9.18
9.59
38.2
26.7
22.2
4.0
27.0
38.0
359,705
251,304
274,402
Drought S5B
Description
Units
CC Adds
CT Adds
Coal Adds
Nuclear Adds
CAES Adds
Geothermal Adds
Gravity Power Adds
Solar Adds
Wind Adds
Annual Capacity Additions
Cumulative Capacity Additions
Retirements
Residential Demand Response
Industrial Demand Response
Reserve Margin
Coincident Peak
Average LMP
Natural Gas Price
Average Market Heat Rate
Natural Gas Generation
Coal Generation
Wind Generation
Solar Generation
Scarcity Hours
Unserved Energy
SO2
CO2
NOx
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
2016
6,120
-
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
%
MW
$/M Wh
$/mmbtu
M M btu/M Wh
%
%
%
%
HRS
GWhs
Tons
(k) Tons
December 7, 2012
Tons
6,120
6,120
(0.94)
86,113
37.94
2.64
14.37
60.9
18.5
9.8
16.0
22.9
202,387
220,286
242,507
2019
1,200
3,225
4,425
10,545
(1.48)
91,068
41.71
3.23
12.91
60.4
19.9
9.3
15.0
12.4
228,714
232,061
254,208
14
2022
400
850
2,500
200
3,950
14,495
500
(2.12)
94,728
50.72
4.13
12.28
56.9
23.0
9.3
0.9
20.0
17.5
278,670
248,045
270,832
2025
2,000
2,550
600
2,500
203
7,853
22,348
500
1.06
98,666
58.87
4.97
11.85
52.2
26.5
9.0
2.0
19.0
15.6
327,849
257,712
277,271
2028
2,550
200
2,000
221
4,971
27,319
500
0.45
103,502
64.94
5.88
11.04
50.7
27.4
9.0
2.7
27.0
25.8
347,788
270,852
289,294
2032
800
900
2,000
4,926
8,626
35,945
500
(0.86)
108,981
75.31
7.19
10.47
47.1
26.4
13.2
3.3
36.0
51.0
355,010
269,595
288,671