Catherine Thomasson, MD Physicians for Social Responsibility • • • • • • Competition for scarce resources Migration Partial social structures/gov’t control Demographic & economic inequities Gender inequality, youth bulge/unemployment Abundance of.
Download ReportTranscript Catherine Thomasson, MD Physicians for Social Responsibility • • • • • • Competition for scarce resources Migration Partial social structures/gov’t control Demographic & economic inequities Gender inequality, youth bulge/unemployment Abundance of.
Catherine Thomasson, MD Physicians for Social Responsibility • • • • • • Competition for scarce resources Migration Partial social structures/gov’t control Demographic & economic inequities Gender inequality, youth bulge/unemployment Abundance of lootable resources Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 Coastal flooding, damage Sea level rise Extreme weather events Infestation ↑ runoff rates More frequent droughts, floods Changed hydro cycles transpiration rates, soil moisture, precipitation patterns Degradation of farm land erosion, nutrient depletion, compacting, salinization, loss to urbanization Erosion, silting water, food Reduced irrigation capacity Overuse, pollution of water supplies Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999 Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public 3 Health, 2013 • 2.3 billion people live in water stressed areas • 1.7 billion live in water scarce areas* By 2025: 3.5 billion people projected to live in water stressed areas • 2.4 billion in water scarce areas* By 2100: 1/3 world risk of extreme drought** *UNEP // **Burke et.al. Journal of Hydrometeorology Sept. 2006 Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 • Grain yields by 10% for every 1°C in global average surface T° • 2°C to 3°C likely; 3°C to 5°C possible • Therefore 20% to 30% likely; • 30% to 50% possible Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 5 • • • • • • Pop: 22 million Size of N. Dakota Hot and dry in summer, rainy and mild in winter Was a middle income developing country 11% below the poverty line (0.06% less than U.S.) 10% of pop in 2007 were refugees (Iraqi, Palestinian, Lebanese) • Repressive government/some corruption Syria Vegetation Health Index From 2006 to 2011: • 60 percent of land affected by drought • 1 million in 2007 with (75%) crop loss • Herders sold animals for 6070% below original price • Required wheat importation for first time. • Sandstorms were happening up to twice a week. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs_Erian_Katl an_&_Babah_2010.pdf 7 The Global Food System and Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE Social, Political & Economic Factors Meat consumption Technology Policies Economic Development Food Prices Adaptation Resilience vs Vulnerability Global Global Food Food Sectors Production Production Agriculture Livestock Wild Sectors Fisheries Aquaculture Agriculture Livestock Wild Resources Fisheries Aquaculture Land Water Resources Energy Land Soil Water Labor Energy Soil Labor ? Global Food Supply Distribution Population Conflict Poverty/Inequality Income Food Aid Individual Food Supply Access Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 • 60 quantitative studies • Associations between climate variables and conflict over time S M Hsiang et al. Science 2013;341:1235367 S M Hsiang et al. Science 2013;341:1235367 • More violent behavior in high temperature climates. • In low-income settings, extreme rainfall events that adversely affect agricultural income are associated with higher rates of personal violence and property crime. • High temperatures associated with increased property crime, but most with violent crimes • Intergroup political conflict increases in low-income areas with • Low water availability • Very low temperatures • Very high temperatures. • Political conflicts often have a direct link a to climateinduced changes in income. • Reports of effect of climate on conflict is relatively standard: consistent with 35 studies of modern data and 28 other studies of intergroup conflict. • Kenya: deforestation less rain and more run-off water scarcity hundreds killed in inter-ethnic water wars • Most water conflict has been intra-national Slide c/oCL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 • Control of Water Resources: water supplies or access are at the root of tensions • Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets of military actions by nations or states • Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon during a military action • Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used for a political goal • Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of violence or coercion by non-state actors • Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a major source of contention/dispute in context of economic development www.pacinst.org Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 ↓ water, food Migration, expulsion “Supplyinduced scarcity” Population growth “Demandinduced scarcity” Unequal resource access “Structureinduced scarcity” Increased environmental scarcity Ethnic conflicts Weakened states Decreased economic productivity Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999 Coups d’état Deprivation conflicts Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 Supply-induced Scarcity: • Almost all freshwater comes from groundwater • Annual rainfall = 70 - 140 million cubic meters • 60% of that becomes runoff to Mediterranean or is lost to evaporation • Only 40% left to recharge single freshwater aquifer • Aquifer is shallow, >90% is contaminated by sewage, agricultural runoff, and saltwater • 50-60 million cubic meters = sustainable supply Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 Demand-induced scarcity: • Consumption: 3x natural supply • Population increases Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 • Strict quotas on Palestinian consumption • Frozen at 1967 levels • Palestinians: 137m³/person—Israelis: 2000m³/person • Palestinians prohibited from drilling new wells or repairing water/sewer infrastructure • Uneven pricing schemes • Palestinians pay 20 times what Israeli settlers pay for water • Neighborhood desalination provide fresh drinking water to ~20% population; rest buy bottled drinking water Families pay 1/3 their monthly income for water Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 • Climate impacts are observable, measurable, real, and having near and long-term consequences” • Failure to anticipate and mitigate these changes, the report states, “increases the threat of more failed states with the instabilities and potential for conflict inherent in such failures.” • Scarce resources can be used as a tool • Cooperate to manage environmental resources • transform insecurities and • create more peaceful relationships between parties in dispute • overcome political tensions • promoting interaction, confidence building, and technical cooperation -Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 www.PSR.org 202-667-4260 Engage scientific community to identify • Regions of high risk • Elements of climate change related risk • Food, water, migration, disaster, population, disease • Elements of resilience • What allows communities faced with catastrophe to NOT devolve into conflict? • How can the US assist in fostering these elements to prevent future conflict Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013