Transcript Item 11 Review and Revision of Draft Round 7.0 Growth Forecasts Paul DesJardin Department of Human Services, Planning and Public Safety and Robert Griffiths Department of Transportation.

Item 11
Review and Revision of Draft
Round 7.0 Growth Forecasts
Paul DesJardin
Department of Human Services, Planning and Public Safety
and
Robert Griffiths
Department of Transportation Planning
National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Meeting
July 20, 2005
Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecasts
• February 2005
– Cooperative Forecasting Subcommittee and Planning Directors Technical
Advisory Committee (PDTAC) approve draft Round 7.0 Cooperative
Forecasts
• D.C. Office of Planning expressed concern about the imbalance in job
and household growth shown in the draft forecasts, particularly in the
2020 to 2030 period
• March 2005
– Metropolitan Development Policy Committee (MDPC) approves draft
Round 7.0 Forecasts
• This approval is subject to an evaluation of the impacts of the new
forecasts by the PDTAC that would examine the jobs-housing
imbalance issue.
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Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecasts
• March to June 2005
– PDTAC meets to evaluate the draft Round 7.0 Forecasts and discuss
concerns about the jobs-housing imbalance.
• PDTAC members from Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince William counties
identified a total of 28,000 additional households that could be added
to their draft Round 7.0 Forecasts.
• Staff presented an analysis showing that, even after accounting for the
additional 28,000 forecast households and projected increases incommuting from areas outside the Washington region, there was still a
sizeable gap in the draft Round 7.0 Forecasts between the significant
number of new jobs foreseen and the limited amount of new housing
expected to be built in the region under current local plans and zoning.
• After consideration of several ways that forecast jobs and housing
growth might be brought into closer alignment, the PDTAC agreed that
the most reasonable assumption was that local jurisdictions over time
would re-plan and rezone land sufficient to provide for the additional
housing that was needed.
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Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecasts
• July 2005
– PDTAC, acknowledging the need for re-planning and rezoning as local jurisdiction
approached build-out of their current plans, recommended that the draft Round 7.0
household forecasts be increased by 92,000 household or 3.8%.
– MDPC approves revised draft Round 7.0 Forecasts for use in the TPB Air Quality
Conformity Analysis of TIP and CLRP and notes in its approval resolution that:
WHEREAS, collectively, local plans and zoning in the metropolitan Washington region do
not currently provide for the amount of housing necessary to provide workers to fill forecast
jobs for the metropolitan area; and
WHEREAS, in the past forecasts adopted by the Board were primarily based on local plans
and zoning capacities as provide for in locally adopted land use plans because there was
sufficient capacity in local plans for the modeled period; and
WHEREAS, to provide sufficient housing in the out years 2020 to 2030 to meet employment
projections it is necessary to anticipate that certain localities over time will re-plan and
rezone land sufficient to provide for the additional housing, the assumption of which is
consistent with current development trends and economic and demographic interrelationships.
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Revised Draft Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecasts
• Change in 2030 Household Forecasts
– Central Jurisdiction Household Forecasts would increase by 16,000
households or 3.2%.
• (DC +8,800; Arlington +3,200; Alexandria +4,000)
– Inner Suburb Household Forecasts would increase by 51,600 households
or 4.1%
• (Montgomery +16,300; Prince Georges’s +8,000; Fairfax County
+27,000; Fairfax City +200, Falls Church +100).
– Outer Suburb Household Forecasts would increase by 24,400 households
or 3.7%.
• (Loudoun +4,800; Prince William +5,800; Manassas +100; Calvert
County +500; Charles County +2,900; Frederick County +4,900;
Stafford County + 5.4).
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