Transcript Energy Services - American Meteorological Society

2009 Summer
AMS Community
Meeting
Aug 10-13th, 2009
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Panel
Nick Keener,
CCM Discussion on Corporate
Director, Meteorology
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Volunteerism
Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003
DUKE ENERGY is one of the largest
electric power companies in the US.
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Serves customers in 5 states:
North and South Carolina,
Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky.
3.9 million retail electric
customers
500,000 retail gas customers
47,000 square miles of
Service Area
~ 37,000 MW Generation in
the US and 4,000 MW of
Generation in Latin America
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Duke Energy North America
Power Generation Facilities
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Weather Forecasts, Mesoscale Observations and
Climate information are used to make daily
operational decisions in the following areas:
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Load Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio
optimization
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Optimization of Hydro Electric Resources
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Hourly pricing
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Weather Risk Analysis for load obligation
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Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories
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Seasonal Forecasts for revenue projections
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Support energy trading and marketing activities in both the
regulated and non-regulated generation
Support Emergency Management for Storm Response
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Load Forecasting that supports daily
generation portfolio optimization
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Hourly forecasts of
temperatures, dew points,
wind speed and cloud cover
for input into load forecast
models
Real-time surface
observations
Precipitation projections
Forecasts developed from
NCEP models, MOS, and
local forecast methods
developed internally
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Optimization of Hydro Electric
Resources
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Twice daily QPF forecasts
that are input into our Hydro
Management System (1-3
days)
Medium range QPF
projections for lake/river
management (4 to 7 days)
Real-time QPE for inflow
estimates
Seasonal forecasts for
longer range planning and
resource availability
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Weather Risk Analysis for load
obligation
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Daily Weather forecast
Scenario development to
capture uncertainty and
project a range of possible
loads out to 3 days
Forecasts of convection,
timing and coverage for
possible load shedding
Temperature/wind forecasts
for transmission line ratings
and lake/river temperature
thermal restrictions
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Monthly and seasonal forecasts
for fuel inventories
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Monthly/seasonal outlooks
for temperature and
precipitation are used for
predicting coal inventories,
gas storage numbers, and
hydro availability
Seasonal forecasts of HDD
and CDD are used to
estimate revenue
projections
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Support trading and marketing of energy
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Short and medium range
forecasts are used for asset
management (Day 1
through 5)
Daily market analysis based
on region and national
weather forecast.
Full suite of forecast
projections for 35 cites in
the 1 – 15 day range
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Support Emergency Management for
Storm Response
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Weather Forecasts are utilized for
resource scheduling in pre-storm
planning for utility operations
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Future weather forecast needs?
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Implementation of a proposed National Digital
Guidance Database (NDGD) which would
provide probabilistic forecast information.
Improving Ensemble forecasts for both short
and long range models and make them
available through NOAA Port.
Improve the Ensemble MOS product past day 3
by removing climatology as a predictor.
Implement an Ensemble QPF forecast
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Real-time surface observations are used for
the following operational decisions:
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System load management
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System load modeling
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Resource decisions related
to on-going severe weather
events
Inflow calculations for
hydroelectric operations
Emergency response
decisions related to nonroutine releases
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Future Mesonet Needs?
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Increased spatial resolution
of surface observations
Real-time SFC data
available from a national
network via NOAA Port
every 15 minutes
Atmospheric boundary
layer measurements using
remote sensing systems for
characterizing the PBL in
real-time.
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Recommendations under the Human
Dimension – BASC Report
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The stakeholders
should commission an
independent team of
social and physical
scientists to conduct
end-user assessment
for selected sectors.
The
assessment……………
……added societal
impact and value.
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Themes –
Weather prediction
and climate
modeling
Support new
applications in
physical,
dynamical, and
chemical
processes in
expanding the user
base
Integrated
feedback
mechanisms
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Main driver in the energy sector
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Technology?
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Q&A