Transcript Item 9 Update on the Financial Analysis for the 2010 CLRP prepared for National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board presented by Arlee Reno, Cambridge Systematics Kiran Bhatt, K.T.

Item 9
Update on the Financial Analysis
for the 2010 CLRP
prepared for
National Capital Region
Transportation Planning Board
presented by
Arlee Reno, Cambridge Systematics
Kiran Bhatt, K.T. Analytics
April 21, 2010
Transportation leadership you can trust.
Goal of Today’s Presentation
Present a status report on the 2010 CLRP financial
analysis which reviews and updates projected
transportation revenues and costs for operating,
maintaining, and expanding the regional transportation
system through 2040
Review the key financial challenges facing the 2010
update to the CLRP
Present next steps – final report of CLRP financial
analysis will include forecasts to 2040 and review of
potential revenue options
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Reasons for CLRP Financial Analysis
Constrained Long Range Plan must be based on
reasonably expected future revenues – a continuation of
current sources or trends is considered reasonable
Revenues and expenditures should balance
Forecasts should be presented in future year of
expenditure dollars to inform budget decisions (and in
constant dollars for understanding of actual costs and
revenues)
New projects are constrained by available resources after
maintenance, operations, and rehabilitation needs are met
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Major Changes Since 2006 CLRP
Suburban Maryland: Intercounty Connector
Northern Virginia: Federal Funding for Dulles Corridor, I-495
HOT Lanes finalized
DC: transit services enhanced with Circulator
WMATA: Metro Matters and the Davis Bill have been
implemented (but capital and rehabilitation needs will require
continuation of these funding commitments)
New revenue sources: general taxes (Maryland sales tax and
DC fuel tax) and Public Private Partnerships and toll
contributions (Virginia HOT lanes projects and Maryland ICC)
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Financial Summary
(Billions of YOE Dollars)
REVENUES
District of
Columbia
Suburban
Maryland
Northern
Virginia
Regional
TOTAL
34.3*
81.0
58.6
63.9
237.8
35.6*
82.2
59.8
67.6
245.3
EXPENDITURES
Revenues
– Expenditures
Agencies
have completed-1.25*
highway-1.25
data
-3.75 data -7.5
and- 1.25
local transit
Revenue-expenditure differences are due to
forecasts of local match revenues not being able to
fund a post 2020 Davis Bill
* Under review by DDOT
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Summary Observations
A large and growing proportion of the available revenues will
be required to operate and preserve the system
Agency project submission are based on the financial
forecasts; several highway projects were postponed or deleted
Local match for a post 2020 continuation of the Davis Bill was
not forecasted to be available by all agencies, so federal and
local “after 2020 Davis” revenues are not considered available
WMATA Metrorail performance and ridership may be limited
by future funding availability, pending the funding decisions
•
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Congestion problems continue for both highway and transit
systems
Potential Revenue Solutions
Wide array of candidate revenue sources, but there is
not a one size fits all solution
Fuel taxes - MD, VA, and DC are below the national
average, while states such as Kentucky, Maine,
Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, and West Virginia
have variable rates, usually responding to price indices
Tolling, pricing, fees assessed in specific benefit
districts, and other types of direct fees may be
appropriate sources for specific projects
Need major enhancements of the traditional revenue
sources for maintenance, preservation, and operations
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Next Steps
May - Draft Financial Analysis Report to TPB Technical
Committee for review
June – Draft Financial Analysis Report presented to
Transportation Planning Board
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