Transcript TPB SCENARIO STUDY Progress on “What Would it Take?” & “CLRP Aspirations” Scenarios Monica Bansal and Michael Eichler Department of Transportation Planning Presentation to the.

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TPB SCENARIO STUDY
Progress on “What Would it Take?” &
“CLRP Aspirations” Scenarios
Monica Bansal and Michael Eichler
Department of Transportation Planning
Presentation to the TPB
December 17, 2008
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The Two New Scenarios
What Would it Take?
CLRP Aspirations
Starts with COG regional CO2
goals and assesses what scales
and combinations of
interventions will be necessary
to achieve the goal for the
transportation sector.
Draws on past studies and
public outreach to provide an
ambitious yet attainable vision
of land use and transportation
for the 2010 CLRP update and
to eventually serve as an
unconstrained long range plan.
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Study Timeline
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The Two New Scenarios
What Would it Take?
CLRP Aspirations
Starts with COG regional CO2
goals and assesses what scales
and combinations of
interventions will be necessary
to achieve the goal for the
transportation sector.
Draws on past studies and
public outreach to provide an
ambitious yet attainable vision
of land use and transportation
for the 2010 CLRP update and
to eventually serve as an
unconstrained long range plan.
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Setting up the WWIT Scenario
Goal: To reduce CO2 emissions by 10% in 2012, and 20% and 80% below
2005 levels in 2020 and 2050 respectively
3 categories of strategies to reduce mobile CO2 emissions
USE of FLEET
FLEET
Fuel Efficiency
Beyond CAFE
standards
[currently 35 mpg by
2020]
Fuel Carbon
Intensity
Travel Efficiency
Alternative fuels
(biofuels, hydrogen,
electricity)
Reduce VMT through
changes in land use,
travel behavior, prices
Reduce congestion
Improve operational
efficiency
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Analyzing the WWIT Scenario
3 categories of analysis for each strategy
1. Effectiveness
2. Cost-effectiveness
3. Timeframe for Implementation
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Products
“Sliders” metaphor
Different
combinations of
interventions can
be assessed for
cost-effectiveness
and feasibility.
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An Example Combination:
Represents the minimum reductions from
current national policies and, therefore, the
maximum regional burden.
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Further review of 1st 2 categories
What could the maximum look like?
EU will have 47 mpg gasoline car fleet fuel
efficiency in 2012 (China currently is at 43 mpg)
Penetration of new technologies possibly high
Plug-in hybrids at 80% of fleet in 2050?
Reduces emissions by up to 70%
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Analyzing the WWIT Scenario
3 categories of analysis for each strategy
1. Effectiveness
2. Cost-effectiveness
3. Timeframe for Implementation
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Cost-effectiveness
How can we begin to prioritize strategies?
Initial analysis of cost-effectiveness of Transportation
Emissions Reduction Measures ($ per ton of CO2 reduced)
Number
Category Description
CO2 Cost
Effectiveness
Range *
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Telecommute Programs
$10 to $40
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Signal Optimization
$30 to $50
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Park & Ride Lots (Transit and HOV)
$100 to $500
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Transit Service improvements
$100 to $800
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The Two New Scenarios
What Would it Take?
CLRP Aspirations
Starts with COG regional CO2
goals and assesses what scales
and combinations of
interventions will be necessary
to achieve the goal for the
transportation sector.
Draws on past studies and
public outreach to provide an
ambitious yet attainable vision
of land use and transportation
for the 2010 CLRP update and
to eventually serve as an
unconstrained long range plan.
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Building the Scenario
Goal: To move jobs and housing closer together to create highly accessible
and developed areas, and achieve more efficient transportation systems
Land Use
Decisions
Pricing
Options
• Concentrating
projected growth in
activity centers and
existing/planned
transit stations
• Address
congestion through
pricing of new
and/or existing
lanes
• Consistent review
and refinement by
planning directors
• Provide
alternatives through
enhanced transit
Supportive
Transit
• Use menu of
transit options
from past
scenarios
• Connect activity
centers
• Review by
Regional Bus
Subcommittee
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Moving Forward
Review from Planning Directors
Have approval on current process
Will provide TAZ level growth alternatives in coming
month for review
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Existing System
Existing system of
activity centers
and high quality
transit shows mismatch. Many
transit stations
without activity
and many activity
centers without
high-quality transit.
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Studied Network of Variably Priced Lanes
A value pricing study
completed by the TPB
in February of 2008
evaluated a regional
network of variably
priced lanes, made up
of new capacity and
selected existing
facilities.
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Transit Network Recommended for Scenario Study
A regional network of
BRT operating mostly
on the priced lanes
will provide highquality transit service
to nearly all activity
centers in the region.
Additional transit
service provided by
CLRP and RMAS
projects.
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BRT to Provide Rail-Like Level of Service
Physical bus stations will provide high
quality of service and encourage TOD
BRT stations will provide many features
to decrease boarding time:
• All-door, level boarding
• Off-board payment
• Room for 60’ articulated multi-door
buses
The Shirlington Transit Station in
Arlington, VA.